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The race to save glacial ice records before they melt away

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Sunday, July 14, 2024

When Margit Schwikowski helicoptered up to Switzerland’s Corbassière glacier in 2020, it was clear that things weren’t right. “It was very warm. I mean, we were at 4,100 meters and it should be sub-zero temperatures,” she says. Instead, the team started to sweat as they lugged their ice core drill around, and the snow was sticky. “I thought, ‘This has never happened before.’” What Schwikowski couldn’t see yet, but would find later in the lab, is that it wasn’t just the surface that was affected: Climate change had penetrated the ice and trashed its utility as an environmental record. Warming weather had created meltwater that trickled down, washing away trapped aerosols that researchers like her use as a historical record of forest fires and other environmental events. Because of the melt, she says, “we really lose this information.” Schwikowski, an environmental chemist at the Paul Scherrer Institut near Zurich, is the scientific lead for the Ice Memory Foundation, a collaborative group that aims to preserve glacial ice records before climate change wrecks them. Their goal is to get cores from 20 glaciers around the world in 20 years, and, starting in 2025, lock them away for long-term storage in an ice cave in the Antarctic — a natural freezer that will hold them at close to minus 60 degrees F (minus 50 degrees C). Since the program’s start in 2015 they have taken cores from eight sites, in France, Bolivia, Switzerland, Russia, Norway, and Italy. But the core attempted from Corbassière was a failure — and has the team wondering if they are already too late. The team, watching in despair as ice cores melt and muddle, is not alone in seeing climate change wreaking havoc with scientific records — often in unexpected ways. Geologists who hunt for meteorites on the ice in Antarctica are finding their mission thwarted by warming temperatures. And while archaeologists who study the artifacts spat out by ice patches are seeing a bonanza of new finds, they are also racing to get to those objects before they rot. Other heritage sites are slumping into thawing permafrost. What all these researchers have in common is a race to preserve what they can, while they can. When you are standing on a glacier that’s literally melting under your feet, says Schwikowski, “you really feel the urgency.” Researchers extract an ice core on an Ice Memory Foundation expedition to the Colle del Lys glacier in the Alps, October 2023. Riccardo Selvatico / CNR / Ice Memory Foundation Due to climate change, high mountain glaciers are now endangered, losing ice faster than they are gaining it. Studies of a few dozen well-monitored glaciers in the World Glacier Inventory have shown that the pace of glacial ice loss has accelerated from a few inches per year in the 1980s to nearly 3 feet per year in the 2010s. A 2023 model of some 215,000 mountain glaciers showed that nearly half of them could disappear entirely by 2100 if the world warms by just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the ambitious maximum warming target of the Paris Agreement. Glaciers have annual layers, just like tree rings. At the top, a single year might see a few feet of snow added to the surface. Hundreds of feet down, weight compresses ice that is thousands of years old into thin, flowing layers, where less than an inch may contain a century of snowfall. This ice preserves all kinds of information from the time when it was deposited. A spike in lead pollution comes at the height of the Roman Empire. A drop in pollen reveals the collapse of farming during the Black Death. The Chernobyl accident left a layer of radioactive cesium. Black carbon and the sugars from burned cellulose map out changes in forest fire activity across the globe. The ratio of different oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the water also reveals the air temperature of the time. Many mountain glaciers have been cored and studied over the past decades. Since scientific methods and research questions change over time, researchers preserve some cores or sections intact for future reference — to study, say, the genetics of ancient DNA. The National Science Foundation Ice Core Facility in Colorado, for example, holds 82,000 feet of collected ice cores — mostly from Greenland and the Antarctic, but also from North American mountaintop glaciers. The problem of glacial ice melting has been apparent for many years, says paleoclimatologist Ellen Mosley-Thompson of Ohio State University. In 2000, when she and her colleagues drilled to bedrock on Mount Kilimanjaro, they found the surface dated to the 1950s. The top 50 years of snow was gone. “Everyone in our community is worried,” she says. Read Next What your gut has in common with Arctic permafrost, and why it’s a troubling sign for climate change Sachi Kitajima Mulkey Dorothea Moser, a PhD student who works on the ice core chemistry team at the British Antarctic Survey, says she has seen cores damaged by melt even in polar regions, including Greenland and coastal Antarctica. “I’ve got records from Young Island [in the Southern Ocean] that have been heavily melt affected,” she says. She is now working to see what kinds of information can still be salvaged from corrupted cores. Moser warns that ice cores are highly vulnerable to increased melting through global warming. “This is why we need to retrieve them, where possible,” she says. In 2015, glaciologist Jérôme Chappellaz of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and chemist Carlo Barbante of the University of Venice established the Ice Memory Foundation to capture archival cores from endangered mountain glaciers. “Ice Memory is attempting to answer the call of these glaciers before they disappear,” says Mosley-Thompson, who is not a member of the foundation. Fewer than a dozen teams around the world do coring work in high mountain settings, says Schwikowski — it takes skill and determination to haul the equipment up to these remote locations, she says, often in collaboration with mountaineers. Progress has been slow. And, just halfway into their collection effort, the work at Corbassière has shown it may already be too late to get pristine records from some sites. The team only retrieved around 60 feet of core from Corbassière, rather than the 260 feet down to bedrock that they had hoped for, because the drill got stuck in melted-and-refrozen ice. And a comparison of this truncated 2020 core with a 2018 sample from the same spot showed that the record was corrupted. While the temperature record was preserved, the spikes of nitrate, sulfate, and ammonia they had seen in the 2018 core had, by 2020, washed away. The team thinks the cumulative effect of meltwater is to blame. Deeper ice may or may not be damaged, too. Margit Schwikowski holds an ice core from the Corbassière glacier in the Alps, September 2020. Scanderbeg Sauer Photography The team has no idea how many other glaciers are affected: A core that the group took more recently from Svalbard in Norway was similarly muddled, says Schwikowski, while one taken from Monte Rosa in the Alps in 2021 seems to be intact. “I am afraid that most of them are already affected,” she says. “We will see what we can do.” The loss of paleorecords in glacial ice is also distressing to archaeologists, who use those signals to help unravel the behaviors of past societies and the environmental conditions they faced. Of course, archaeologists also have another category of study material: human artifacts. To find these, they often look to ice patches — wind-blown snow drift accumulations that can be thousands of years old. Christian Thomas, an archaeologist with the Yukon Territory’s Department of Tourism and Culture, says such patches typically overlap with traditional summer hunting grounds, so ancient weapons are often found there. The first documented find from an ice patch was an arrow in Norway during a particularly warm year in 1914. Discoveries were only random and occasional until the 1990s, when such finds sped up along with the rate of ice melt, says Lars Holger Pilø, co-director of the Secrets of the Ice program at Norway’s Department of Cultural Heritage. “We had no idea how intense the human use of the high mountains had been until all these artifacts started to emerge from the retreating ice,” he says. “In that way, we are unlikely beneficiaries of global warming.” Since Pilø started his own work in 2006, he says the number of finds and sites has exploded, from a few hundred finds and less than 10 sites in 2006 to more than 4,000 finds from 69 sites in 2023. Some objects date back 6,000 years. They have found more arrows, clothing (including a 1,700-year-old Iron Age tunic and a 3,400-year-old Early Bronze Age shoe), and even prehistoric skis. Such items are often in pristine condition, “frozen in time,” says Pilø. “But once they become exposed to the elements, the clock starts ticking fast, and they will [decompose and] be lost if they are not found and conserved.” “Our ice patch sites are considered imperiled,” says Thomas, who doesn’t expect the ones in the Yukon to survive the next 20 to 30 years. Both in the Yukon and in Norway, scientists are on a quest to collect archaeological finds as quickly as possible. Read Next A new satellite could help solve one of our climate’s biggest mysteries: Clouds Syris Valentine While markers of human history are being erased, other researchers are worried, too, about access to markers of the solar system’s history: meteorites. These inch-sized chunks of the moon, Mars, or the asteroid belt contain vital evidence about the elemental composition of celestial objects and their origins. These rocks fall to Earth everywhere but are easiest to spot against white snow. Hundreds of meteorites fall over the vast surface of the Antarctic each year, and, over millennia, this has built up to an estimated stock of 300,000 to 850,000 space rocks sitting out on the ice. Researchers typically go out and collect about 1,000 a year, from “blue ice” fields where the meteorites are brought to the surface by ice flow and where no fresh snow falls to hide them. Glaciologists Harry Zekollari and Veronica Tollenaar of the Université libre de Bruxelles set out to map the best places to hunt for these rocks, using an artificial intelligence model. Their work revealed that temperature is a major factor determining where meteorites can be found. The reason is simple: black rocks absorb heat from the sun. Even a brief spate of 16 degrees F (minus 9 degrees C) is warm enough for a meteorite to melt the snow beneath it, says Tollenaar, allowing it to sink — just as gravel thrown onto an icy driveway will drill down into tiny holes during the heat of the day. The team estimates that some 5,000 meteorites sink out of sight this way each year and that every tenth of a degree Celsius of warming adds an additional 5,000 to the loss. By the end of the century, they predict, some 25 to 75 percent of the meteorites sitting on Antarctic ice could disappear from view, taking scientific information with them. The Ice Memory Foundation is continuing on its mission to gather and store ice cores. But it’s hard going. Trips planned to take a core from Kilimanjaro in 2022, and in Tajikistan more recently, both fell through, says Schwikowski — it can be difficult to coordinate the necessary permits, people, and funding to get up these mountains and take samples away. The team does have permission to store their ice cores in the Antarctic. This November they plan to ship a balloon to Concordia Station, the French-Italian research base in East Antarctica, where it will be blown up and snow piled on top to make an ice cave big enough to drive into. The ice cores are due to be shipped there at the end of 2025, where they will be stored in insulated boxes to keep the temperature steady. Such a cave should be stable for at least a decade, after which another, similar cave can be built if needed. A 1,200-year-old birch distaff found near the shrinking Lendbreen ice patch in Norway. Espen Finstad / Secrets of the Ice Of course, you don’t have to go to the Antarctic to find cold. There are plenty of freezers capable of maintaining such low temperatures, including the National Science Foundation ice core facility in Denver. But Schwikowski points out that these facilities use energy and are vulnerable to temperature fluctuations and even failure. In 2017, a rare double malfunction caused the Canadian Ice Core Archive freezer in Alberta to warm up to around 100 degrees F (40 degrees C) without triggering the right alarms. Several valuable core sections melted. In a separate event, Thomas says that they, too, lost ice when walk-in freezers in the Yukon failed. Aside from logistical considerations, says Schwikowski, there’s a beauty to storing this ice in a place that sits outside of national ownership: “The Antarctic is a continent of peace and research.” She just hopes to get to the mountain glaciers quickly enough to store their ice. “It worries me a lot,” she says. “We are not so fast. It is not easy.” This story was originally published by Grist with the headline The race to save glacial ice records before they melt away on Jul 14, 2024.

As glaciers melt around the globe, scientists are racing to retrieve ice cores that contain key historical records of temperature and climate that are preserved in the ice.

When Margit Schwikowski helicoptered up to Switzerland’s Corbassière glacier in 2020, it was clear that things weren’t right. “It was very warm. I mean, we were at 4,100 meters and it should be sub-zero temperatures,” she says. Instead, the team started to sweat as they lugged their ice core drill around, and the snow was sticky. “I thought, ‘This has never happened before.’”

What Schwikowski couldn’t see yet, but would find later in the lab, is that it wasn’t just the surface that was affected: Climate change had penetrated the ice and trashed its utility as an environmental record. Warming weather had created meltwater that trickled down, washing away trapped aerosols that researchers like her use as a historical record of forest fires and other environmental events. Because of the melt, she says, “we really lose this information.”

Schwikowski, an environmental chemist at the Paul Scherrer Institut near Zurich, is the scientific lead for the Ice Memory Foundation, a collaborative group that aims to preserve glacial ice records before climate change wrecks them. Their goal is to get cores from 20 glaciers around the world in 20 years, and, starting in 2025, lock them away for long-term storage in an ice cave in the Antarctic — a natural freezer that will hold them at close to minus 60 degrees F (minus 50 degrees C). Since the program’s start in 2015 they have taken cores from eight sites, in France, Bolivia, Switzerland, Russia, Norway, and Italy. But the core attempted from Corbassière was a failure — and has the team wondering if they are already too late.

The team, watching in despair as ice cores melt and muddle, is not alone in seeing climate change wreaking havoc with scientific records — often in unexpected ways. Geologists who hunt for meteorites on the ice in Antarctica are finding their mission thwarted by warming temperatures. And while archaeologists who study the artifacts spat out by ice patches are seeing a bonanza of new finds, they are also racing to get to those objects before they rot. Other heritage sites are slumping into thawing permafrost.

What all these researchers have in common is a race to preserve what they can, while they can. When you are standing on a glacier that’s literally melting under your feet, says Schwikowski, “you really feel the urgency.”

Researchers extract an ice core on an Ice Memory Foundation expedition to the Colle del Lys glacier in the Alps, October 2023. Riccardo Selvatico / CNR / Ice Memory Foundation

Due to climate change, high mountain glaciers are now endangered, losing ice faster than they are gaining it. Studies of a few dozen well-monitored glaciers in the World Glacier Inventory have shown that the pace of glacial ice loss has accelerated from a few inches per year in the 1980s to nearly 3 feet per year in the 2010s. A 2023 model of some 215,000 mountain glaciers showed that nearly half of them could disappear entirely by 2100 if the world warms by just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the ambitious maximum warming target of the Paris Agreement.

Glaciers have annual layers, just like tree rings. At the top, a single year might see a few feet of snow added to the surface. Hundreds of feet down, weight compresses ice that is thousands of years old into thin, flowing layers, where less than an inch may contain a century of snowfall.

This ice preserves all kinds of information from the time when it was deposited. A spike in lead pollution comes at the height of the Roman Empire. A drop in pollen reveals the collapse of farming during the Black Death. The Chernobyl accident left a layer of radioactive cesium. Black carbon and the sugars from burned cellulose map out changes in forest fire activity across the globe. The ratio of different oxygen and hydrogen isotopes in the water also reveals the air temperature of the time.

Many mountain glaciers have been cored and studied over the past decades. Since scientific methods and research questions change over time, researchers preserve some cores or sections intact for future reference — to study, say, the genetics of ancient DNA. The National Science Foundation Ice Core Facility in Colorado, for example, holds 82,000 feet of collected ice cores — mostly from Greenland and the Antarctic, but also from North American mountaintop glaciers.

The problem of glacial ice melting has been apparent for many years, says paleoclimatologist Ellen Mosley-Thompson of Ohio State University. In 2000, when she and her colleagues drilled to bedrock on Mount Kilimanjaro, they found the surface dated to the 1950s. The top 50 years of snow was gone. “Everyone in our community is worried,” she says.

Dorothea Moser, a PhD student who works on the ice core chemistry team at the British Antarctic Survey, says she has seen cores damaged by melt even in polar regions, including Greenland and coastal Antarctica. “I’ve got records from Young Island [in the Southern Ocean] that have been heavily melt affected,” she says. She is now working to see what kinds of information can still be salvaged from corrupted cores.

Moser warns that ice cores are highly vulnerable to increased melting through global warming. “This is why we need to retrieve them, where possible,” she says.

In 2015, glaciologist Jérôme Chappellaz of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and chemist Carlo Barbante of the University of Venice established the Ice Memory Foundation to capture archival cores from endangered mountain glaciers. “Ice Memory is attempting to answer the call of these glaciers before they disappear,” says Mosley-Thompson, who is not a member of the foundation.

Fewer than a dozen teams around the world do coring work in high mountain settings, says Schwikowski — it takes skill and determination to haul the equipment up to these remote locations, she says, often in collaboration with mountaineers. Progress has been slow. And, just halfway into their collection effort, the work at Corbassière has shown it may already be too late to get pristine records from some sites.

The team only retrieved around 60 feet of core from Corbassière, rather than the 260 feet down to bedrock that they had hoped for, because the drill got stuck in melted-and-refrozen ice. And a comparison of this truncated 2020 core with a 2018 sample from the same spot showed that the record was corrupted. While the temperature record was preserved, the spikes of nitrate, sulfate, and ammonia they had seen in the 2018 core had, by 2020, washed away. The team thinks the cumulative effect of meltwater is to blame. Deeper ice may or may not be damaged, too.

A man in a blue coat and a gray and black snow hat holds a column of ice.
Margit Schwikowski holds an ice core from the Corbassière glacier in the Alps, September 2020. Scanderbeg Sauer Photography

The team has no idea how many other glaciers are affected: A core that the group took more recently from Svalbard in Norway was similarly muddled, says Schwikowski, while one taken from Monte Rosa in the Alps in 2021 seems to be intact. “I am afraid that most of them are already affected,” she says. “We will see what we can do.”

The loss of paleorecords in glacial ice is also distressing to archaeologists, who use those signals to help unravel the behaviors of past societies and the environmental conditions they faced. Of course, archaeologists also have another category of study material: human artifacts. To find these, they often look to ice patches — wind-blown snow drift accumulations that can be thousands of years old. Christian Thomas, an archaeologist with the Yukon Territory’s Department of Tourism and Culture, says such patches typically overlap with traditional summer hunting grounds, so ancient weapons are often found there.

The first documented find from an ice patch was an arrow in Norway during a particularly warm year in 1914. Discoveries were only random and occasional until the 1990s, when such finds sped up along with the rate of ice melt, says Lars Holger Pilø, co-director of the Secrets of the Ice program at Norway’s Department of Cultural Heritage. “We had no idea how intense the human use of the high mountains had been until all these artifacts started to emerge from the retreating ice,” he says. “In that way, we are unlikely beneficiaries of global warming.”

Since Pilø started his own work in 2006, he says the number of finds and sites has exploded, from a few hundred finds and less than 10 sites in 2006 to more than 4,000 finds from 69 sites in 2023. Some objects date back 6,000 years. They have found more arrows, clothing (including a 1,700-year-old Iron Age tunic and a 3,400-year-old Early Bronze Age shoe), and even prehistoric skis. Such items are often in pristine condition, “frozen in time,” says Pilø. “But once they become exposed to the elements, the clock starts ticking fast, and they will [decompose and] be lost if they are not found and conserved.”

“Our ice patch sites are considered imperiled,” says Thomas, who doesn’t expect the ones in the Yukon to survive the next 20 to 30 years. Both in the Yukon and in Norway, scientists are on a quest to collect archaeological finds as quickly as possible.

While markers of human history are being erased, other researchers are worried, too, about access to markers of the solar system’s history: meteorites. These inch-sized chunks of the moon, Mars, or the asteroid belt contain vital evidence about the elemental composition of celestial objects and their origins. These rocks fall to Earth everywhere but are easiest to spot against white snow. Hundreds of meteorites fall over the vast surface of the Antarctic each year, and, over millennia, this has built up to an estimated stock of 300,000 to 850,000 space rocks sitting out on the ice. Researchers typically go out and collect about 1,000 a year, from “blue ice” fields where the meteorites are brought to the surface by ice flow and where no fresh snow falls to hide them.

Glaciologists Harry Zekollari and Veronica Tollenaar of the Université libre de Bruxelles set out to map the best places to hunt for these rocks, using an artificial intelligence model. Their work revealed that temperature is a major factor determining where meteorites can be found. The reason is simple: black rocks absorb heat from the sun. Even a brief spate of 16 degrees F (minus 9 degrees C) is warm enough for a meteorite to melt the snow beneath it, says Tollenaar, allowing it to sink — just as gravel thrown onto an icy driveway will drill down into tiny holes during the heat of the day.

The team estimates that some 5,000 meteorites sink out of sight this way each year and that every tenth of a degree Celsius of warming adds an additional 5,000 to the loss. By the end of the century, they predict, some 25 to 75 percent of the meteorites sitting on Antarctic ice could disappear from view, taking scientific information with them.

The Ice Memory Foundation is continuing on its mission to gather and store ice cores. But it’s hard going. Trips planned to take a core from Kilimanjaro in 2022, and in Tajikistan more recently, both fell through, says Schwikowski — it can be difficult to coordinate the necessary permits, people, and funding to get up these mountains and take samples away.

The team does have permission to store their ice cores in the Antarctic. This November they plan to ship a balloon to Concordia Station, the French-Italian research base in East Antarctica, where it will be blown up and snow piled on top to make an ice cave big enough to drive into. The ice cores are due to be shipped there at the end of 2025, where they will be stored in insulated boxes to keep the temperature steady. Such a cave should be stable for at least a decade, after which another, similar cave can be built if needed.

A swath of rocks on the edge of the ocean.
A 1,200-year-old birch distaff found near the shrinking Lendbreen ice patch in Norway. Espen Finstad / Secrets of the Ice

Of course, you don’t have to go to the Antarctic to find cold. There are plenty of freezers capable of maintaining such low temperatures, including the National Science Foundation ice core facility in Denver. But Schwikowski points out that these facilities use energy and are vulnerable to temperature fluctuations and even failure. In 2017, a rare double malfunction caused the Canadian Ice Core Archive freezer in Alberta to warm up to around 100 degrees F (40 degrees C) without triggering the right alarms. Several valuable core sections melted. In a separate event, Thomas says that they, too, lost ice when walk-in freezers in the Yukon failed.

Aside from logistical considerations, says Schwikowski, there’s a beauty to storing this ice in a place that sits outside of national ownership: “The Antarctic is a continent of peace and research.” She just hopes to get to the mountain glaciers quickly enough to store their ice. “It worries me a lot,” she says. “We are not so fast. It is not easy.”

This story was originally published by Grist with the headline The race to save glacial ice records before they melt away on Jul 14, 2024.

Read the full story here.
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Here's What to Know About the New Funding Deal That Countries Agreed to at UN Climate Talks

In the wee hours Sunday at the United Nations climate talks, countries from around the world reached an agreement on how rich countries can cough up the funds to support poor countries in the face of climate change

It's a far-from-perfect arrangement, with many parties still deeply unsatisfied but some hopeful that the deal will be a step in the right direction. World Resources Institute president and CEO Ani Dasgupta called it “an important down payment toward a safer, more equitable future,” but added that the poorest and most vulnerable nations are “rightfully disappointed that wealthier countries didn’t put more money on the table when billions of people’s lives are at stake.”The summit was supposed to end on Friday evening but negotiations spiraled on through early Sunday. With countries on opposite ends of a massive chasm, tensions ran high as delegations tried to close the gap in expectations.Here's how they got there: What was the finance deal agreed at climate talks? Rich countries have agreed to pool together at least $300 billion a year by 2035. It’s not near the full amount of $1.3 trillion that developing countries were asking for, and that experts said was needed. But delegations more optimistic about the agreement said this deal is headed in the right direction, with hopes that more money flows in the future.The text included a call for all parties to work together using “all public and private sources” to get closer to the $1.3 trillion per year goal by 2035. That means also pushing for international mega-banks, funded by taxpayer dollars, to help foot the bill. And it means, hopefully, that companies and private investors will follow suit on channeling cash toward climate action.The agreement is also a critical step toward helping countries on the receiving end create more ambitious targets to limit or cut emissions of heat-trapping gases that are due early next year. It’s part of the plan to keep cutting pollution with new targets every five years, which the world agreed to at the U.N. talks in Paris in 2015.The Paris agreement set the system of regular ratcheting up climate fighting ambition as away to keep warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. The world is already at 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) and carbon emissions keep rising. What will the money be spent on? The deal decided in Baku replaces a previous agreement from 15 years ago that charged rich nations $100 billion a year to help the developing world with climate finance. The new number has similar aims: it will go toward the developing world's long laundry list of to-dos to prepare for a warming world and keep it from getting hotter. That includes paying for the transition to clean energy and away from fossil fuels. Countries need funds to build up the infrastructure needed to deploy technologies like wind and solar power on a large scale.Communities hard-hit by extreme weather also want money to adapt and prepare for events like floods, typhoons and fires. Funds could go toward improving farming practices to make them more resilient to weather extremes, to building houses differently with storms in mind, to helping people move from the hardest-hit areas and to help leaders improve emergency plans and aid in the wake of disasters.The Philippines, for example, has been hammered by six major storms in less than a month, bringing to millions of people howling wind, massive storm surges and catastrophic damage to residences, infrastructure and farmland. “Family farmers need to be financed," said Esther Penunia of the Asian Farmers Association. She described how many have already had to deal with millions of dollars of storm damage, some of which includes trees that won't again bear fruit for months or years, or animals that die, wiping out a main source of income.“If you think of a rice farmer who depends on his or her one hectare farm, rice land, ducks, chickens, vegetables, and it was inundated, there was nothing to harvest,” she said. Why was it so hard to get a deal? Election results around the world that herald a change in climate leadership, a few key players with motive to stall the talks and a disorganized host country all led to a final crunch that left few happy with a flawed compromise.The ending of COP29 is "reflective of the harder geopolitical terrain the world finds itself in,” said Li Shuo of the Asia Society. He cited Trump's recent victory in the US — with his promises to pull the country out of the Paris Agreement — as one reason why the relationship between China and the EU will be more consequential for global climate politics moving forward.Developing nations also faced some difficulties agreeing in the final hours, with one Latin American delegation member saying that their group didn't feel properly consulted when small island states had last-minute meetings to try to break through to a deal. Negotiators from across the developing world took different tacks on the deal until they finally agreed to compromise. Meanwhile, activists ramped up the pressure: many urged negotiators to stay strong and asserted that no deal would be better than a bad deal. But ultimately the desire for a deal won out.Some also pointed to the host country as a reason for the struggle. Mohamed Adow, director of climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, said Friday that “this COP presidency is one of the worst in recent memory,” calling it “one of the most poorly led and chaotic COP meetings ever.”The presidency said in a statement, “Every hour of the day, we have pulled people together. Every inch of the way, we have pushed for the highest common denominator. We have faced geopolitical headwinds and made every effort to be an honest broker for all sides.”Shuo retains hope that the opportunities offered by a green economy “make inaction self-defeating” for countries around the world, regardless of their stance on the decision. But it remains to be seen whether the UN talks can deliver more ambition next year.In the meantime, “this COP process needs to recover from Baku,” Shuo said.Associated Press reporters Seth Borenstein and Sibi Arasu contributed to this report.The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See - Sept. 2024

Laser-based lidar tech is rewriting history — if climate change doesn't erase it first

Multiple ancient cities have been discovered recently thanks to lidar. But time is running out for some sites

Tashbulak and Tugunbulak may be largely forgotten today, but the pair of Uzbekistani cities thrived during the Medieval era. Nestled in the Tien Shan mountains, the largest east to west mountain range on Earth, merchants from all over Europe and Asia would travel to Tashbulak and Tugunbulak to hawk their wares. Located on the famous Silk Road, Tashbulak and Tugunbulak was a nexus of trade and culture. More than a thousand years have passed since their heyday, however, and as humans continue to destroy our environment, archaeological treasures like those in these cities could be lost forever. But thanks to a powerful laser-based technology called lidar, ancient history is being illuminated like never before. Scientists still debate whether lidar stands for “laser imaging, detection and ranging” or “light detection and ranging.” Either acronym accurately summarizes the technology, which uses lasers to measure large areas by targeting a surface or object and measuring how long it takes for light to be reflected back.But no one is debating how lidar is helping preserve humanity’s most important treasures from our species’ tendency to destroy our natural environment. "All of the storytelling takes time, and time is critical right now." As for the lost cities of Tashbulak and Tugunbulak, anthropologist Michael Frachetti used lidar to conduct unprecedentedly detailed scans of the Medieval metropolis, which thrived approximately 2,000 meters above sea level between the 6th and 11th centuries. Their research was published in October in the journal Nature, with Frachetti marveling at how these ancient cities struggled with the same self-destructive habit of exploiting their natural resources. “There does appear to be an environmental factor which played a role in both the establishment of the cities in high altitude — in this case areas rich in ore and other resources,” Frachetti said. “We hypothesize that the investment these populations made in producing iron metallurgy would have had significant environmental impact on local forest resources used for fuel. This remains to be demonstrated scientifically, but given the scale of smelting documented at Tugunbulak, it makes sense that there would have been consequential effects on the ecology of this highland landscape.” Frachetti, who teaches at Washington University in St. Louis, added that “we think there is a broader lesson related to the impact of intensive exploitation of the environment and the ultimate sustainability of Urban settings, which we can extrapolate from this time in history.” Lidar image of La Mojana Raised Fields in Colombia (Courtesy of NV5)Ron Chapple agrees that lidar keeps reminding us about the importance of environmental protection. Chapple is the former CEO of GEO1, a company that specialized in utilizing lidar technology. He was an early investor in lidar technology, recognizing during his former career as an aerial cinematographer that it has the potential to transform archaeology. He regularly is consulted by scholars about how to use lidar, and today Chapple is VP Global Strategic Solutions at NV5, a multinational corporation that also specializes in lidar, imaging and analytics. He is particularly well-known for acquiring extremely detailed images of a lost city half a world away from Uzbekistan — Ciudad Perdida (literally Spanish for "lost city"), an ancient city in Colombia’s Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta mountains. Ciudad Perdida is believed to have been founded about 800 A.D., which is true would make it older than Machu Picchu by more than six centuries. Archaeologists dream of discovering more locations like Ciudad Perdida, and yet Chapple has watched with anxiety as human activity endangers these delicate sites. Want more health and science stories in your inbox? Subscribe to Salon's weekly newsletter Lab Notes. Indeed, last week a 1,100-year-old pyramid in Mexico collapsed into a pile of rubble because of heavy rainfall that was preceded by record-breaking drought that evaporated entire lakes. Tariakuiri Alvarez, a living member of the P'urhépecha tribe, told Live Science his ancestors would have interpreted the crumbling of the pyramid at Ihuatzio as a "bad omen." Salon spoke with Chapple about the future of lidar and how, because of climate change, he believes humanity needs to start using lidar as much as possible to protect our civilization’s greatest treasures before they are lost forever. This interview has been edited for clarity and length. What do we know for sure about climate change and its impact on the future of archeology? What about other human activities such as warfare or various forms of industrial, agricultural and other commercial development? I think it's safe to assume that climate change is going to change current human living patterns in a few different ways. For example, if the world is getting a little bit warmer where crops would say grow at a 2,000-foot elevation, now that it's warmer, the farmers might need to go upslope to 3,000-foot elevation and start clear-cutting areas so their crops can continue to grow. By clear cutting, you have the potential to damage untouched areas where there could be sites of archeological significance. "During the helicopter flight, we could see clear-cutting occurring within a couple of miles of the site that we were surveying." I think that's one of the main ones, as well as any similar type of development where there are more people moving on Earth, or if there is warfare, any human influence has the potential to expose untouched areas. If we can use lidar and survey those areas in advance, we not only may be able to preserve and record any evidence of ancient settlements, but that data could assist in better land planning. Likewise with sea level rise. Increasing ocean heights may cause migration from the coast to higher ground. Again, you're opening or removing forests with farming and development that could affect archeological sites. How does lidar offer a solution to these? We were doing archeological discovery in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta mountains in northern Colombia. During the helicopter flight, we could see clear-cutting occurring within a couple of miles of the site that we were surveying and in roughly similar terrain. Now we have no way of knowing if there was anything of historical value there or not, but it has the potential of modifying the land so that we may never know what history could have been hidden under the rainforest. Lidar image of Ciudad Perdida (Courtesy of NV5)How much of the data that your company has accumulated over the years can be realistically analyzed by qualified historians, anthropologists and other scholars who can actually transform it into meaningful stories and history? NV5 doesn’t deliver just numbers. NV5 believes in democratizing data, and we use algorithms that say, for archeologists, will highlight the contours of the ground. This visualization makes it easier for researchers to be able to look at that data and understand what they're looking at. In many cases, we are layering that data with other information such as imagery from either airplanes or satellites to provide more context. Aerial View of Ciudad Perdida (Courtesy of NV5)How do you tell a story with that data? How do you make that data easy to understand? All of the storytelling takes time, and time is critical right now. We analyze and learn what's out there. I think of Chris Fisher, an archeologist friend of mine who discovered ancient settlements in Honduras using lidar technology. Chris always says, “Is the Amazon natural,  or are we looking at an overgrown garden? In the 1500s, something like 90% of the population in South America was wiped out because of disease that came in when the Europeans settled and started to explore. For example, in 1520, when [Hernán] Cortés arrived in the densely populated Mexican city of Tenochtitlan, his soldiers brought along smallpox, which killed off 40% of the population in a single year. It harkens back to COVID-19 in an extreme sense. The more we learn about these civilizations that are now beneath the dense jungle canopy, the more we may be able to learn about our future. I'm thinking of the recent discoveries in Brazil and Uzbekistan using lidar. As I'm sure you saw, a research team in the Brazilian state of Rondônia discovered an 18th century Portuguese colonial city. In Uzbekistan, a different research team provided great detail about a pair of 6th to 11th century cities on the Silk Road, Tashbulak and Tugunbulak, that had thrived before being lost to time. What are your thoughts about the significance of these individual discoveries and how the average news consumer should internalize them in terms of their larger relevance? Is there something out there that's going to change our civilization dramatically? Maybe not today, because we have better ways to fight disease, but knowing what was out there is essential. Is it possible that some of the world’s greatest cities are still lying hidden beneath the Amazon rainforest, or in other undiscovered areas around our world? While I am not a doomsayer, with a catastrophic meteor or nuclear event, large swaths of civilization could be changed forever. What’s interesting to me about working with NV5 is that we provide data and analytics that will provide the tools for humanity to manage climate change and population growth. But back to archeology, we need to understand what was there before it's too late and provide the history that our fellow humans and children deserve. Read more about ancient history

Cop29’s new carbon market rules offer hope after scandal and deadlock

Countries agree on how to create, trade and register credits to meet climate commitmentsIt was once among the most promising ways to funnel climate finance to vulnerable communities and nature conservation. The trading of carbon credits, each equal to a tonne of CO2 that has been reduced or removed from the atmosphere, was meant to target quick, cost-effective wins on climate and biodiversity. In 2022, demand soared as companies made environmental commitments using offsets, with the market surpassing $2bn (£1.6bn) while experiencing exponential growth. But the excitement did not last.Two years later, many carbon markets organisations are clinging on for survival, with several firms losing millions of dollars a year and cutting jobs. Scandals about environmentally worthless credits, an FBI charge against a leading project developer for a $100m fraud, and a lack of clarity about where money from offsets went has caused their market value to plunge by more than half. Predictions that standing rainforests and other carbon-rich ecosystems would become multibillion-dollar assets have not yet come to pass. Continue reading...

It was once among the most promising ways to funnel climate finance to vulnerable communities and nature conservation. The trading of carbon credits, each equal to a tonne of CO2 that has been reduced or removed from the atmosphere, was meant to target quick, cost-effective wins on climate and biodiversity. In 2022, demand soared as companies made environmental commitments using offsets, with the market surpassing $2bn (£1.6bn) while experiencing exponential growth. But the excitement did not last.Two years later, many carbon markets organisations are clinging on for survival, with several firms losing millions of dollars a year and cutting jobs. Scandals about environmentally worthless credits, an FBI charge against a leading project developer for a $100m fraud, and a lack of clarity about where money from offsets went has caused their market value to plunge by more than half. Predictions that standing rainforests and other carbon-rich ecosystems would become multibillion-dollar assets have not yet come to pass.But at Cop29 over the past two weeks, governments have given the sector fresh hope by signing off rules that will create an international carbon trading system for countries to meet their Paris commitments.In Azerbaijan on Saturday evening, governments agreed to rules on how countries can create, trade and register emission reductions and removals as carbon credits after years of deadlock on article 6 of the Paris agreement. It paves the way for top emitters such as Germany and Japan to buy cheap removals and reductions from decarbonisation schemes in developing countries such as renewable energy schemes, rainforest protection or tree-planting, counting them towards their own targets. Trading could begin as soon as 2025 once technical bodies have agreed on the finer details.If it works well, the market would fund the low-hanging fruit of climate mitigation while making sure emissions are capped in line with the Paris agreement. There is particularly strong interest in carbon removal, with many large tech firms buying credits and trying to scale up the market. After several false starts, negotiators and observers say this is the last chance to get it right.“International carbon markets have crashed twice in two decades. This was due to an erosion of credibility. At Baku, the operationalisation of international carbon trading under Paris can prevent a third meltdown that could be fatal,” said Axel Michaelowa, a carbon markets expert at the University of Zurich. “They are a powerful tool to accelerate the diffusion of low-carbon technology around the world. The Paris carbon market is now ready to roll out in 2025. It can accelerate mitigation and thus help close the gaping emissions gap that separates us from achieving the 1.5C target,” he said.Big concerns about carbon markets remain. In the run-up to Cop28 in Dubai last year, it emerged that vast tracts of African forest had been sold off in a series of huge carbon offsetting deals to a little-known UAE firm overseen by a member of Dubai’s royal family, prompting fears of a “new scramble for Africa” over the continent’s carbon resources.The potential size and impact of any country-level market is also unclear. Norway has reserved up to $740m (£590) for purchases under the Paris carbon market, signing agreements in Baku with Benin, Jordan, Senegal and Zambia, but there are questions over how many other developed countries will make purchases despite predictions it could soar into a multibillion-dollar market.Then, there is the issue of environmental integrity, which has repeatedly undermined faith in carbon credits, including the previous UN carbon trading system. A new study in Nature Communications published during the first week of Cop29 found that less than 16% of carbon credits issued represent real emissions reductions, meaning that the vast majority are hot air. Moments after governments approved the Paris carbon trading system, observers warned that the rules were not strict enough to avoid similar issues.Dr Lambert Schneider, one of the co-authors and a senior researcher at the Oeko-Institut, said these problems would undermine the Paris agreement if they spilled into the official UN system.“The available evidence suggests that many carbon credits are not backed by any actual emission reductions. If these quality issues continue under article 6, this could undermine our efforts to achieve our climate targets. It is critical that we fix the integrity issue of the market,” he said.“We currently see proposals on the table that would credit the natural absorption of carbon dioxide by forests. But these removals occur anyways and not because of any human intervention. If these credits are used by buyers to emit more, this would result in more carbon added up to the atmosphere. And the potential for issuing such credits is very large,” he said.There have been efforts to clean up standards in the sector, which could form part of the UN market. Verra, the leading carbon credit standard which was the subject of a joint Guardian investigation into their rainforest offsets that found they were mostly worthless, is introducing a new system for generating the carbon credits. Mandy Rambharos, the non-profit’s CEO, said they were determined to get it right and move on from recent issues.skip past newsletter promotionThe planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essentialPrivacy Notice: Newsletters may contain info about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. For more information see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.after newsletter promotion“We’ve invested in millions of dollars for no guarantee of any return [in the new rainforest carbon credit methodology]. It’s all done at risk,” she said. “We need to take accountability for some things that went wrong. But I’m saying as well, it’s not just Verra.“The idea to grow the carbon market is to get climate financing to the right places. A London taxpayer is not going to give thousands of dollars to developing countries to reduce the emissions, especially if you’re not sure about those developing countries’ commitment. We’re all in the same bucket, whether it’s Mali, Saudi Arabia or China; that’s where the idea of where carbon markets came about,” she added.This month, a carbon credit integrity initiative – the ICVCM – approved three rainforest methodologies as high quality, including Verra’s new rules, meaning that buyers can trust that the credits represent real emission reductions. But those involved with the process have raised concerns about their approval. The Guardian understands that many experts did not think the methodologies met the standards. This is strongly contested by the ICVCM.Credits such as this could eventually form part of country-to-country carbon deals, and experts say that ensuring these deals have real environmental benefits will be key to their success.“The new rules are a start, but the risk of abuse still remains alive and well,” said Injy Johnstone, a research fellow at the University of Oxford. “We have to learn the lessons of past mistakes and watch for new ones this system could create, otherwise we risk the Paris agreement becoming a market failure,” she said.

COP29 Highlights Costa Rica’s Role in Climate-Resilient Tourism

Costa Rica continues to lead the charge in sustainable tourism by championing the Baku Declaration on Climate Action, unveiled on November 20 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. The declaration, endorsed by over 50 countries, highlights tourism’s critical role in combating climate change and building resilience. It calls for integrating […] The post COP29 Highlights Costa Rica’s Role in Climate-Resilient Tourism appeared first on The Tico Times | Costa Rica News | Travel | Real Estate.

Costa Rica continues to lead the charge in sustainable tourism by championing the Baku Declaration on Climate Action, unveiled on November 20 at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. The declaration, endorsed by over 50 countries, highlights tourism’s critical role in combating climate change and building resilience. It calls for integrating sustainable tourism practices into national climate strategies, showcasing the sector’s potential to drive eco-friendly development. “Tourism is a major contributor to global economic growth, providing livelihoods for millions. However, it is also responsible for significant greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystem degradation, and remains vulnerable to climate change,” said COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev. During Tourism Day at COP29, the Baku Declaration encouraged national tourism administrations to align their efforts with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—commitments made under the Paris Agreement. It also called for embedding climate action into tourism policies and accelerating National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) to build resilience against climate impacts. Franz Tattenbach, Costa Rica’s Minister of Environment and Energy, reaffirmed Costa Rica’s leadership during initial discussions. As chair of the UN Tourism Sustainability Committee, Tattenbach emphasized the urgent need to decarbonize tourism through green initiatives that protect biodiversity and ecosystems. “Costa Rica is committed to accelerating National Adaptation Plans in the tourism sector, ensuring greater resilience to climate change impacts,” Tattenbach said. Participating countries pledged to strengthen the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action in Tourism, which provides a voluntary framework for increasing stakeholder commitments to climate adaptation and mitigation. This includes reducing emissions, adopting sustainable travel practices, and promoting responsible tourism globally. As the world navigates a path toward sustainability, Costa Rica’s leadership in climate-resilient tourism offers a blueprint for harmonizing economic growth with environmental stewardship. The post COP29 Highlights Costa Rica’s Role in Climate-Resilient Tourism appeared first on The Tico Times | Costa Rica News | Travel | Real Estate.

The Biden Administration Put $7 Billion Into “Hydrogen Hubs.” Critics Smell a Boondoggle.

This story was originally published by Yale E360 and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. In the fall of 2023, the Biden administration announced $7 billion in funding for seven hydrogen hubs, slated to be built across the country over the next eight to 12 years. If all goes as planned, one of those hubs, the Mid-Atlantic […]

This story was originally published by Yale E360 and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. In the fall of 2023, the Biden administration announced $7 billion in funding for seven hydrogen hubs, slated to be built across the country over the next eight to 12 years. If all goes as planned, one of those hubs, the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub (MACH2)—a network of more than a dozen interconnected hydrogen production centers, storage facilities, pipelines, and new solar farms that will power these operations—will stretch from southeastern Pennsylvania and neighboring southern New Jersey into Delaware. Expected to receive $750 million in federal funding, MACH2 is projected to create roughly 20,800 jobs in the Delaware Valley region, of which 6,400 will be permanent. The US Department of Energy (DOE) says that a sufficiently robust buildout of hydrogen production could power steelmaking, cement production, and other energy-intensive heavy industries, which account for more than a fifth of national carbon emissions and have been notoriously hard to decarbonize, as well as fueling ships, airplanes, and trucks. But some environmentalists and energy experts question whether investing so much money in hydrogen could siphon funding from more effective decarbonization strategies. Even a so-called “green” hub, which runs entirely on renewable energy, they say, might not provide the promised carbon-reduction benefits and could potentially even increase emissions. And residents of potential host communities—particularly the hard-pressed city of Chester, Pennsylvania, where some of the MACH2 facilities are planned—are concerned that they will bear the brunt of the potential risks and health hazards that hydrogen production and transport could bring. “Safety knowledge and best practices for the production and transportation of hydrogen are well-established and mature.” Scientists discovered how to extract usable hydrogen from water molecules using electrolysis in the 1800s, and as far back as 1874, novelist Jules Verne predicted it would someday be “the coal of the future.” Hydrogen is, after all, the most abundant element on the planet, and it produces no carbon emissions when burned. The United States already produces 10 million metric tons of hydrogen a year—but most of it is derived from natural gas and is largely used in petroleum refining and in making ammonia for manufacturing fertilizer. Every ton of ammonia produced generates 2.6 tons of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, according to a report published in Green Chemistry. Still, scaling up low- or zero-carbon hydrogen production wasn’t considered financially viable until passage of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, which offer substantial tax credits to producers of clean hydrogen. Today, some proposed hubs are planning on producing “blue” hydrogen—that is, hydrogen created using natural gas but with the resulting carbon emissions captured and stored underground. Representatives of the MACH2 hub say that 82 percent of their production will be “green,” meaning powered by solar and wind; 15 percent will be “pink”—powered by the Salem and Hope Creek nuclear plants, in southern New Jersey; and the remaining 3 percent will be “orange”—powered by biogas, which is produced when organic matter decomposes in an anaerobic environment. Despite MACH2’s commitment to using green energy, some environmental advocates and local residents have reservations. Will the production facilities and pipelines pose threats to the environment and human health? Will the development process be transparent? Will jobs for community members materialize? A year after the official announcement, the hub has shared few details with the public—locations of facilities, potential environmental impacts, how the project would benefit communities—saying plans have not yet been finalized pending permit approvals from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP), commitments from private investors, and contract negotiations between the DOE and the companies that will operate as part of the hub, who are expected to provide investments to match their government-awarded funds. More information will be released in the project’s next phase, expected to begin in the coming year. The lack of specificity has unnerved environmental and community groups. The Delaware Riverkeeper Network, an environmental advocacy nonprofit, is alarmed by what it sees as a lack of proper safety precautions. Part of MACH2’s plan involves repurposing old fossil fuel infrastructure to carry hydrogen. Like many aspects of the project, what that means isn’t yet clear. “These projects are often placed in areas that have less political power and representation. We should have the right of refusal.” MACH2 officials are currently creating an inventory of underutilized infrastructure, according to Matt Krayton, the communications lead for the hub. He says the hub would likely repurpose existing pipeline rights of way—every pipeline needs approval from landowners whose property would be crossed—and possibly the pipelines themselves, which would be re-sleeved with a hydrogen-safe polymer to prevent leaks. Some 1,600 miles of hydrogen pipelines are already operating across the US, and Nick Barilo, executive director of the Center for Hydrogen Safety at the American Institute of Chemical Engineers, noted that all combustible fuels carry a certain amount of risk, and hydrogen is no more dangerous than natural gas. “The US industry has been using hydrogen for over a century,” Barilo said. “Safety knowledge and best practices for the production and transportation of hydrogen are well-established and mature.” In some potential host communities, like Chester, Pennsylvania, assurances like Barilo’s fall flat. Fifteen miles outside of Philadelphia, the city once bustled with manufacturing and heavy industry. But after World War II, plants began to shutter, and the city entered a long decline. By 2020, its population was half its 1950 peak. Today, a third of Chester residents live in poverty, and the city, which declared bankruptcy in 2022, is host to 11 industries classified by the DEP as hazardous, including one of the largest incinerators in the nation. Chester’s asthma rate is double the state level, according to an analysis conducted by the Center of Excellence in Environmental Toxicology, at the University of Pennsylvania. “These [industries] assault us every day,” said Zulene Mayfield of Chester Residents Concerned for Quality Living. “And it is sanctioned by the state.” “These projects are often placed in areas that have less political power and representation,” said Kearni Warren, a local outreach coordinator for the Clean Air Council, an environmental health advocacy organization. “We should have the right of refusal when it comes to projects that put our health and safety at risk.” When MACH2 finalizes its arrangements with the DEP and formally begins Phase 1 of the project, which includes a community engagement plan and detailed plans for building sites, residents may start to see if their skepticism is warranted. But the industry still faces headwinds over its potential costs and benefits. Although burning hydrogen produces no direct greenhouse gas emissions, hydrogen that leaks into the atmosphere, according to a 2022 research paper published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, increases concentrations of other greenhouse gases, like methane, ozone, and water vapor. “Any time you’re handling [hydrogen], producing it, transporting it, storing it — [the molecule] is so small that the risk of leaks is significant,” said Talor Musil, a field manager at the Pennsylvania-based nonprofit Environmental Health Project. And according to a recent report published by Energy Innovation Policy & Technology, an energy and climate policy think tank, making green hydrogen to power short-haul planes and heavy-duty vehicles—two sectors often touted as ripe for adopting hydrogen—is neither economical nor efficient. Roughly 20 to 30 percent of hydrogen’s energy value is lost in the process of splitting water molecules, the report said, and another 15 percent may be lost during compression and storage. The Energy Innovation report ranked the potential end uses for hydrogen by their long-term viability and determined that it made the most financial and environmental sense for refining oil and producing ammonia for fertilizer, while also having value in steelmaking and long-haul aviation and marine shipping. Energy experts agree on these high-value uses for hydrogren, but the Inflation Reduction Act guarantees a tax credit for the fuel, no matter what its end use, for 10 years. Given rapid advances in battery technology, said the Energy Innovations report, it will be hard to justify hydrogen’s expense in industries like trucking—which can operate far more cheaply using electricity—when the credit ends. A recent study by a group of Harvard researchers estimated that depending on what it’s ultimately used for, green hydrogen may wind up being even less cost effective at fighting climate change than direct air capture of CO2, which the International Energy Agency estimated would have an operating cost, when scaled up, of between $230 and $630 per metric ton of CO2 captured. And then there’s the matter of impact. The seven hubs combined are projected to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 25 million metric tons of CO2 a year (not counting the emissions linked with hydrogen production). The total tonnage is not significant, some experts say—it amounts to less than half of one percent of total US CO2 emissions—considering the $7 billion in taxpayer support. But the Energy Department considers the hubs a catalyst, a way to “kickstart a national network of clean hydrogen producers, consumers, and connective infrastructure”; presumably, costs of hydrogen production will drop as the industry develops. Unless the federal government implements strict rules on carbon capture and the use of green energy for the hubs, the industry could actually increase overall emissions, according to the National Resources Defense Council (NRDC). Last November, Rachel Fakhry, the NRDC’s policy director for emerging technologies, testified before the House Environmental Resources and Energy Committee that, for hydrogen to be truly sustainable, green hubs would need to abide by three main tenets: buying electricity from newly built renewable energy sources, rather than pulling existing renewables from the grid (a requirement known as “additionality”); matching their hourly use with the availability of green energy, which prevents hubs from dipping into fossil fuels and buying clean energy credits after the fact; and using clean energy that’s produced close to the hubs, ensuring that its delivery doesn’t lead to increased emissions. Legislators and industry groups are already indicating they will challenge a proposed additionality requirement. As the federal government works to finalize how it will regulate the hydrogen tax credits, energy experts continue to grapple with the potential significance, and value, of the proposed hubs. “One of the big challenges in the broader field of serious, big systems decarbonization is we’re sort of talking about various imaginaries,” said Danny Cullenward, a climate economist and senior fellow at University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy. “We’re throwing money at the hubs. We’re throwing money through this tax credit at the production of hydrogen. But there isn’t really anything resembling a coordinated strategy for what’s the right use of hydrogen,” he said. “It’s actually a really weird thing, if you think about it.”

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