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As Hurricanes Bear Down and Get Stronger, Can a $34 Billion Plan Save Texas?

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Thursday, August 8, 2024

Illustration by Emily Lankiewicz / Images via public domain / Library of Congress / FEMA / NASA / Carl & Ann Purcell / Getty Images After Hurricane Ike destroyed thousands of homes and inflicted an estimated $30 billion in damages in 2008, engineers hatched an ambitious plan to protect southeast Texas and its coastal refineries and shipping routes from violent storms. The $34 billion collaboration spearheaded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is a harbinger of the type of massive public works projects that could be required to protect coastal cities like New York and Miami as sea levels rise and hurricanes become less predictable and more severe due to climate change. In this episode of “There’s More to That,” Smithsonian magazine contributor and Texas native Xander Peters reflects on his experiences growing up in a hurricane corridor and tells us how the wildly ambitious effort came together. Then, Eric Sanderson, an ecological historian, tells us how the project could be applied to other low-lying coastal cities. A transcript is below. To subscribe to “There’s More to That,” and to listen to past episodes on how a new generation of high-end West African restaurants is revealing the roots of “Southern” cuisine, why Colombian conservationists are now trying to sterilize the hippos descended from drug kingpin Pablo Escobar’s personal menagerie, what humans’ great acumen for sweating has contributed to our evolution and more, find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Chris Klimek: What part of Texas are you from? Xander Peters: I’m over here in East Texas. We’re about 30 miles from the Louisiana border. Klimek: Xander Peters is a contributor to Smithsonian magazine. Peters: It’s a real small town, about 2,000 people. Klimek: What’s life like there? Peters: As a 33-year-old single guy? Kind of boring at times, but it’s home, you know. Not a lot of people move here, but not a lot of people leave, either. So maybe that speaks for itself. Klimek: What’s the geography like? Peters: It’s marshy. It’s wet. We’re kind of the last stretch of the Louisiana swamp, as we all know it. So it’s a wet, humid, difficult place at times. Klimek: One of the constants in Xander’s life growing up in East Texas was hurricanes. Peters: The most memorable was in 2005. Hurricane Rita pretty much was a direct impact to the region. I think it was my freshman year of high school. The power was out for three or four weeks. Society literally shut down. It was hard to get gas. You couldn’t really get groceries. Of course, there was Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the list goes on. But it’s a fact of life here. Klimek: This area has already been impacted by hurricanes this summer, and there may be more to come. In July, Hurricane Beryl left millions without power in the dangerously high heat, leading to more than 20 deaths. Local officials can’t prevent these big storms, but they can try to prevent the damage, which is why one of the most ambitious and expensive infrastructure projects in the country is in progress, right there along the Galveston coast. But will it be enough to prevent loss of property and life? Or do we need an entirely different way of thinking? From Smithsonian magazine and PRX Productions, this is “There’s More to That,” the show that’s glad to be your nerdy listening alternative to the song of the summer. In this episode, we learn about the so-called Ike Dike going up in East Texas, as well as alternative flood prevention efforts that rely on nature itself. I’m Chris Klimek.Klimek: In the July/August issue of Smithsonian magazine, Xander Peters wrote about a place just a short drive from his hometown: the Bolivar Peninsula. Peters: It’s hard to imagine a more vulnerable geographic location than Bolivar Peninsula. It’s almost totally surrounded by water, so when a storm surge comes, it comes in nearly every direction. Klimek: What’s this region’s history with big storms? Peters: It’s hard to talk about southeast Texas without talking about its storms. It’s defined not just every generation, but every decade. Going back to the Galveston Storm of 1900, which claimed the most fatalities of any American natural disaster. We had Harvey in 2017, which was catastrophic flooding. The list goes on. At this point, I have mixed up the more recent names. I feel like, you know, your grandmother kind of does a roll call of all the children in the family. That’s how I feel about hurricanes now. Klimek: The biggest storm in Xander’s recent memory was 2008’s Hurricane Ike. Peters: We’d never seen the kind of storm surge result from a hurricane as we saw from Ike. And after that storm, it actually changed the way the National Hurricane Center conducts analysis and gives insight ahead of event into a storm surge. And, really, our broader understanding of what creates the disaster aspect of this kind of natural disaster. Klimek: Was it forecasted to be as catastrophic as it was? Peters: We knew it was going to be bad. It was a mandatory evacuation for, I think, even up to my region in East Texas, about 100 miles north of the coast. So we knew it was going to be bad. We at first thought it was going to be a direct hit to the Houston shipping channel, which is all kinds of bad news. We’re looking at $900 billion of goods that go up and down, much of which is oil and gas related, up and down the Houston shipping channel every year. We have the world’s largest petrochemical corridor. And if it’s a fuel, if it’s a gas, it’s being refined there. It’s being made there somehow. And then it’s going to faraway places like Europe. But we got lucky. It missed the shipping channel by about two miles, and it hit around Galveston and Bolivar instead. So Bolivar was not so lucky. But in terms of the larger human toll, very lucky. Because if a storm surge hits the Houston shipping channel directly, we could be looking at a Chernobyl-like event, just given some of the refining capacity across the region. Klimek: What did it look like there on the peninsula after Ike? Peters: There was nothing left. Sixty to 80 percent of the structures were gone. You look at Highway 87, which stretches down pretty much the entire span of the peninsula, and [it was covered in] one or two feet of sediment and mud. There were cattle carcasses, alligator carcasses. There were snakes and rats running wild, confused. There were laundry machines scattered everywhere. There was twisted metal, broken telephone poles, everything in a million huge piles. Klimek: In your story, you mentioned a smell that was very particular. Peters: Yeah. Death lingered for months. I mentioned the cattle carcasses, and there are human carcasses in some places. And all the grasses and the stuff in people’s houses was molding and rotting, and there’s just every foul smell you can imagine. I’m not a military veteran. I’ve never fought in a war. But I can imagine that’s what a battlefield would smell like, you know? Klimek: For more than 100 years, people in the area have been trying to prevent storm surges like this one. Peters: After the Galveston Storm in 1900, they built a kind of state-of-the-art seawall, which has been raised a couple times, if I’m not mistaken, over the last century or so. It was commissioned only a few years after the storm. Meanwhile, you look at Bolivar Peninsula, it has none of those same infrastructure protections. Klimek: So how did the idea of the Ike Dike come together? Peters: A lot of arguing. Klimek: The Ike Dike is the informal name for the massive infrastructure project that officials are betting the future of the Bolivar Peninsula on. Officially called the coastal Texas project, it involves three dozen sea gates leading up to the Houston shipping channel, and large concrete floodwalls to reinforce the city of Galveston. With a $34 billion price tag, it’s being overseen by the Army Corps of Engineers, but it was first envisioned by a local researcher. Peters: Dr. William Merrell. He’s a professor at Texas A&M Galveston, and he’s a marine scientist. He and his wife are also investors in some of the antique architecture across Galveston. As Ike blew in, he came up with a concept that was a barrier system around Galveston that would open and close ahead of events such as Ike. He sat down that evening, as the lights remained out, and started sketching out some of the first designs of what the federal government will break ground on in the coming months—after some 16 years. Klimek: Part of the delay came from the controversial nature of the project. Critics argued the Ike Dike would do irreparable damage to the environment, that it was too complex to work and that it was too expensive. Several different groups submitted their own plans. But after local officials asked Congress to step in, the Army Corps of Engineers was put in charge. Federal help comes with federal money. Klimek (to Peters): Who’s funding this, and what kind of money are we talking about? Peters: Sixty-five percent is coming from the federal government. Texas will pick up the remaining 35 percent. Only about $500,000 of that’s been allocated so far. But the Army Corps says accounting for inflation and everything else that threw it off the end of the project, we’re probably looking at something close to $55 billion. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s higher than that. Klimek: All right. So, assuming all this investment buys what we hope it does, how is the dike intended to protect Galveston from storm surges? How will it work? Peters: The whole idea is to stop the water at the sea, not let the water get into the Houston Ship Channel, which causes flooding all the way across it. So essentially, it’s a big gate that, in theory, will stop this huge wall of water as it surges toward the coast ahead of hurricane events like Ike and other ones. It draws on a Dutch flood theory, and the Dutch have some of the earliest forms of flood mitigation systems. Nothing like this has ever been even attempted in the U.S. Not at this scale, not with these high of stakes. It’s a new defining of how not just the federal government, but state governments as well, are going to approach building our way out of the climate crisis. Klimek: How will the gate-and-ring system work? Peters: Twenty-four to 48 hours ahead of a storm surge event, the alerts start going out, and they start moving some of the first ships out of the Houston Ship Channel. And, essentially, they have to hit that button to close the two main gates at the right time so that not too much water gets past it as the storm surge begins coming in in the 12 or 18 hours ahead of a hurricane. When I think of the Ike Dike gates closing, I think of, like, Indiana Jones when the stone rolls out of the cave after him, in terms of what these massive walls will look like moving toward each other. Klimek: How will the Ike Dike incorporate natural storm barriers like sand dunes? Peters: There along Bolivar Peninsula, we’re going to see a massive dune system. I think it was 12- to 14-foot dunes with a swale between them. That is going to line the stretch between Highway 87 and the beachfront. And that’s just piling sediment and sand on top of each other to create a wall. That’s nothing different than what the tides have done themselves, except to a much, much, much larger degree. And then in other places, we’re going to see wetlands restoration, which helps buffer storm surge from the coast. I think it was 6,600 acres of wetlands restoration or remediation for similar marshlands. So it’s equally significant — the natural restoration process — as much as the engineering phase of the project. Klimek: What kind of concerns have environmentalists raised about the coastal Texas project? Peters: Rightful ones, actually. It’s to be expected when you essentially inject these enormous concrete structures into ecosystems. Over the last 50 years in the Netherlands, environmental researchers have noticed changes to ecosystems, sediment patterns being shifted around. And that’s the same concern that we’re seeing on the Texas coast. These are unprecedented actions. A lot of this project is operating on hypothesis and theory. We probably can expect to see some ecological changes along the Texas coast as a result of it long term. Klimek: So how does what they’re trying to do in Galveston reflect how we’re responding nationally to increasingly severe storms and floods? Peters: I guess we’re paying attention now. It took a long time to get to this point. We’re approaching the 16-year anniversary of Ike, and you look at the Houston Ship Channel. You look at Bolivar and the months after Ike. It’s a pretty convincing argument. And over the years, we’ve seen the same argument made over and over. It’s very slow-moving, and I feel it’s very difficult to respond to a fast-moving crisis with a slow-moving solution, but it seems to be the best we have.Klimek: For more context on floods and their potential solutions, we reached out to an expert. Eric Sanderson: Hi everyone, I’m Dr. Eric Sanderson. I’m the vice president for urban conservation at the New York Botanical Garden. I live and work in New York City, and I’ve studied the historical ecology of New York for many years. Klimek: Eric recently spoke about flooding on New York Botanical Garden’s new podcast, “Plant People.” And while New York City may be far from Houston, it faces many of the same challenges. Sanderson: I was here during Hurricane Sandy, and I was here during Hurricane Ida. And after Sandy, I made this map that showed that the areas that flooded during Sandy were more or less where the tidal marshes were around the city. And I showed that around. And at the time, a lot of people are like, oh, well, that’s kind of interesting. But I guess that makes sense. Those would be the lowest places, right? But then Hurricane Ida happened in 2021, and Hurricane Ida was not a coastal storm, but an intense rainstorm. And what re-emerged were the upland streams and wetlands and ponds and places that people weren’t expecting. I made a map there, kind of compared that, and I started talking about it, and I wrote a little thing that was in the New York Times that just made the case that the water is going to go where the water is going to go, and that’s going to be downhill, and that’s going to be where the old streams were. Klimek: Eric does a lot of work with historic maps. He overlays the original topography of a place with the city we know now to reveal where the rivers, lakes, streams and marshes used to be. Often these are the very same places that flood during storms. Sanderson: We call those areas “blue zones,” and they cover some 20 percent of New York City. Places where about a million people live. Klimek: So you’re saying that some of the flooding resulting from Hurricane Ida happened in surprising places, places that were not predicted to flood? Sanderson: Yes. Basements were flooded. And it turns out that a lot of those places were former wetlands or ponds or streams. Because when we build, the city will fill in the wetland. But it’s actually hard to raise the topography high enough that you divert the direction of the water. The water goes where the water has always gone. Klimek: Eric says some of the best examples can be found in our nation’s airports. Sanderson: Think about where JFK Airport is, or LaGuardia Airport, in New York. JFK Airport is built on a big salt marsh. The Great Haystack, as it was called. LaGuardia is actually built in Bowery Bay. It was built in a bay! They filled in the bay, and they built the airport. And why is that? Why did they do that? It’s because by the time we decided we wanted commercial aviation in the late ’20s and 1930s, most of the upland had been built on, right? And so, you know, you weren’t going to, like, clear Flatbush in order to build an airport. What the city did is they took whatever they had, which was the near-coastal zone, and they filled it in. That’s what LaGuardia [is]. And that’s what we did for JFK, and that’s Newark Airport. But that’s also, you know, Reagan Airport in D.C., and that’s also SFO in San Francisco and the Oakland Airport and practically every airport in a coastal city. And it’s because of the relationship of when that technological economic activity developed in the historical projection of the city. It’s fascinating. Klimek: Are there specific human populations most likely to be affected by floods? Sanderson: Yeah. Well, everybody who’s in a low spot. It turns out, of course, that those places have been wet for a long time. Many of them were less desirable. And there’s two consequences of that: One is that they’re disproportionately in public hands, still. So there are places where schools are, where public housing is, where parks are. Because those places were less desirable for private development in the past. And so they tended to stay in the public sphere. The other sort of important factor is poor people. You know, people with less power and less financial capacity tend to go to the places that are more affordable and in some sense have been, you know, shunted by the various systematic mechanisms. You know, redlining and these sorts of things tend to push people into certain precincts of the city. It just turns out that some of those precincts of the city were formerly wetlands, and then those former wetlands are starting to flood again. We did an analysis of our blue zones against environmental justice areas of the city. And about a third of the blue zones overlap with areas that are identified as environmental justice communities. Klimek: Our magazine story about flooding is largely set in Houston, which, you know, in recent days as we’re speaking has been hit by Hurricane Beryl-related flooding. But this obviously has been a problem there for decades, considering that Houston, too, was built on a swamp. Why are so many of our major U.S. cities built on floodplains? Sanderson: They weren’t built to destroy swamps, per se. It’s more, if you think about where it’s a good place to put a city, there’s sort of four factors. One is that there is food. So you have to have agricultural land nearby, and you need water. You need fresh water, right? You also want to be on a trade route. So that means cities like to be on the coast, or on major rivers, or some way of moving stuff around. And the fourth one is defense. A lot of cities were founded at a time where, you know, you had to worry about other people. So they’re often in defensive places. It’s maybe worth saying, Chris, that once a city is established, the next best place to put a city is right beside the city you already have. Once you have that core, then they tend to grow out sort of radially from them. Klimek: So in Houston, the so-called Ike Dike, this massive infrastructure project—I want to ask how you feel about these kinds of large-scale solutions. Is there a limit to what can be achieved with these kinds of massive infrastructure projects? Sanderson: I can’t speak specifically to the details of Houston, but there’s similar sorts of things proposed here in New York. And what I would just say is, I don’t think you can solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created it in the first place. There was this idea that developed during the Enlightenment, and was expressed through the Industrial Age and into the 20th century, that we could basically control nature. That we were smarter and more powerful than nature is. And the consequences of that are that we have radically changed the atmospheric composition of the Earth in such a way that it’s holding in more energy and creating these storms. So there’s that. And then, you know, we thought, “We can build on a beach, we can build on a wetland. We’ll just fill it in; it’ll be fine.” But we didn’t anticipate sea-level rise and climate change and more severe storms. And so I really think this is a moment where we need a different way of thinking and another kind of wisdom. Klimek: What would a more comprehensive long-term solution for a coastal city, whether it’s Houston or New York, what would that look like if we had some way to address all of this pre-existing construction, and the fact that we’re having to interpolate centuries of prior development? If we could somehow put that aside and just think about the future, what would you do? Sanderson: So I would take the historical lesson, which is that we’ve overbuilt in some places, we built in places that we shouldn’t have. And so, what should we do? I think there are some places where we need to invest in nature instead of more infrastructure. I think it’s actually the reverse thing. Don’t build a giant wall; build a giant park. Don’t build a new storm drain; build a stream. Don’t build another massive retention pond that you don’t know how big to make it; build a wetland that knows how to adapt to changing conditions. And that’s hard, because it means that it just isn’t a problem of the neighborhoods that are flooding. It’s also a problem of the upland areas that aren’t flooding. If a million people need to move, and we need to build another million housing units in safer places—and probably more to help with the housing affordability and other things, right? This is what I mean. It challenges us at many levels. It challenges us in terms of the wisdom to know what to do as an individual person or individual family, but it also challenges our social structures. We need to have a mechanism to try and work that out, and then we need to restore the nature that we destroyed, and that will save us. Klimek: Do plants have a role to play in addressing some of the problems we’re having with flooding? Sanderson: Planting really is the key here. And that’s what I mean by restoring nature from a water perspective. When you see a tree, you should think of a straw. You have this organism that has these roots that are going down into the ground, and they’re pulling the water out and they’re putting it back in the atmosphere. The traditional way of managing water in the city is to build pipes and infrastructures that replace the streams, right? And then take it to the water treatment plants. That’s sort of this one way of managing water. And the goal is to get rid of it as fast as possible. Nature’s way is: There’s many routes that water can take. Water can run down a stream, but it can also percolate into the ground and into the aquifer. Or it can evaporate or evapotranspiration through trees and up into the atmosphere, right? It has multiple pathways to go. So these are all sorts of lessons out of ecology that we can apply with plants to make flooding better. More trees is going to help with interception. It’s going to help with groundwater flows, and it’s going to help with evapotranspiration. More wetland plants is going to help with slowing the water, holding the water and providing habitat for other organisms that use that water. Nature’s been at this for a long time. Like, it really has a lot of great tricks that we can lean into in a way that can make our lives better, too. Klimek: Eric spoke about another innovative solution called “stream daylighting.” Most of the small streams that used to exist in the landscape have been forced underground, rerouted into pipes or otherwise covered by our urban infrastructure. Daylighting restores the streams, bringing them back up to the surface. Sanderson: Here in New York City, there’s this fascinating story on Staten Island that when Staten Island was developing, there was this moment where they were about to spend a lot of money on their sewage infrastructure. And then someone said, well, why don’t we put some of that money into just restoring the streams? And then the streams can help with the stormwater. We can do some adaptations. We can build some ponds and things to help hold a little bit more water in the system. And then the sewage system can just deal with the sewage and not have to deal with the stormwater. But then there’s other things that are being invented, like a green roof. You know, a green roof actually slows the water down. And it used to be that our green roofs, you know, were pretty shallow. But there’s been a lot of experimentation. I was slightly involved with a project that Google built in New York, where they took an old industrial building that was strong enough that they used to drive trains into this building, like locomotives, at the end of the High Line. It’s now an office building, and they popped up the middle of it to create the office structures, and then they put green roofs on them, and those green roofs could hold enough weight that they can have trees on them. Trees and shrubs and plants. And then they planted them with 95 percent native plants. So they’re doing the water thing and they’re doing the biodiversity thing at the same time. It’s a really beautiful project, and an acre and a half of habitat on the West Side of Manhattan. Incredible. Klimek: The solutions to flooding as a result of coastal surges—are those different from rainfall-induced flooding, or do we address them in the same way? Sanderson: We have to address them in different kinds of ways, because the coastal storm surge, that’s the sea level. And then the waves that are being driven by a storm. And so that’s really about, in my view, dunes and beaches and maybe oyster reefs to help break that energy of the storm water and then salt marshes to help absorb it. If it’s an intense rainfall, I think that’s about streams and wetlands and interior modifications giving the water someplace to go. The problem is that you could try and solve one and mess up the other. I think this is why the engineers are so interested in this problem, and they can design something if you tell them what to design for. It’s easy to do the design, but then to miss the specification by a little bit. Remember during Hurricane Sandy when there was that famous photograph of Lower Manhattan being all dark? That’s because the flood took out a power plant that was on the East Side of Manhattan. There was on a little hill beside an old salt marsh. It was designed to be 12 feet above the tide, and that storm surge was 14 feet. So it was just two feet over. You know, like, if they designed it at 14 or 16 feet or would have been OK. When they built that thing, nobody knew exactly what it was. You’re taking a guess. You’re sort of rolling the dice. Natural systems are adaptive on their own. So it’s not like there’s a design blueprint for nature that says, this is exactly what it’ll do. Nature’s a little bit more adaptable, and it can do kind of different sorts of things. And I think that’s a strength in the long run. But it makes people uncertain in the short run. Klimek: Are there any other solutions we haven’t gotten to yet, either in New York City or other cities, approaches to addressing flooding that you find worthy of exploration? Sanderson: We didn’t mention specifically things like bioswales, which are sort of like a small little version of a forest or a little wetland on the side of a street. There’s this idea of permeable pavers, you know, allowing water to get to the ground. Essentially, we’ve covered our cities in stone because we don’t like mud. Essentially, we’ve paved over the city, and our buildings are built in these hard materials, which are like stone and glass and so forth. And so that’s why the water sheets off of it. And, you know, anybody can do this experiment. You just take a bucket of water and go outside and pour it on a rock and watch how fast the water comes off. And then you pour it on the adjacent soil and you’ll see how fast it infiltrates to the ground and doesn’t run off. And so we’ve hardened the city. Anything we can do to soften the city that way, to expose the soil, it’s going to help us with water. I think the only thing to say about that, of course, is that, you know, in the historical conditions, when it was a forest, the water that was in the ground would either eventually emerge in a spring and a stream or go down into the aquifer and then out into the ocean. Now we have other stuff that’s also on the ground, like the subway system and like all the electrical wires, and all the plumbing. So it’s a little bit more complicated. There’s a lot of work in cities to put water in the ground, and I totally understand why. But if you’re ever in New York City on a rainy day, it’s raining above the ground and it’s raining below the ground, in the subway system. Water is single-minded like this. It just wants to go downhill. Klimek: It sounds like we really need to think about more than just rerouting water to solve some of these problems that coastal cities are experiencing. What are the opportunities that we could open up by thinking about more than just moving excess water from one place to another place? Sanderson: Well, I think we need to think about the mitigation side. Of course, everything we’ve talked about adapting to flooding doesn’t mean we don’t have to do something about trying to decrease the amount of carbon that’s in the atmosphere. Floods are a big problem in cities, both because of the way we’ve made our cities and because of the way cities have changed the atmosphere. I mean, there’s the basic climate change fact that the atmosphere has a lot more carbon dioxide in it and other greenhouse gases than it did before. Those holding the heat, the warmer air holds more water and has more energy. And so that creates larger storms. So there’s that. One thing I think a lot about is we tend to forget that we make a lot of choices about how we live in the city. So there’s a sort of lifestyle aspect to this, as well as a sort of urban planning aspect to it, if you like. And I think we could do a lot more on the lifestyle side. Some of that is just coming to this expectation that, yes, there’s going to be flooding in our cities and another ecosystems, right? These things are not going away anytime soon. So we just need to, like, reset, maybe, our expectation that we can build pipes large enough to handle all the water and that, you know, despite whatever the conditions are, if it’s pouring rain, maybe you can’t go outside, or maybe you can’t do something that you were able to do before. So that’s one thing. A second one is to sort of think about those sort of lifestyle choices in terms of all the things you need to do about them. Flooding, about where the water goes, that’s in conversation with where the cars go and where people go. So the transportation networks. There’s some clever ideas there. If you look at the New York City streets now, they’re designed with this bend, so they’re higher in the middle so that the water sheets off toward the gutters on the side. But there’s been some experiments in cities around the world to build them the other way, lower in the middle, and the water comes in. And so basically when there’s a flood, you close the road. And for the short period of time, that road is a stream. Not traffic. It’s a stream. And it turns out that some of our roads are on old streams. And so that kind of solution could work. So these are quite clever things that you can do. Klimek: How would it benefit people to take that into account, to start to think more ecologically and adjust our expectations? How would we ultimately benefit from this? Sanderson: Well, in the near term, we won’t die, right? Like we won’t drown, and we won’t lose our stuff, and we won’t have the social unrest that arises from those bad things. But to sort of turn around in a positive mode at some level, I think this is what life is for, right? Knowing how to live here on Earth with the nature that we have. It’s that kind of deep-seated understanding and desire to be the best person I can be in this amazing, amazing planet that we have that has led my whole career in conservation. Klimek: Eric Sanderson is the vice president of urban conservation for the New York Botanical Garden. He is also the author of Mannahatta: A Natural History of New York City, which is an ecological history of Manhattan Island. Thank you, Dr. Sanderson, for talking with us. Sanderson: Terrific. Thank you so much, Chris. Klimek: To hear more from Eric Sanderson, subscribe to NYBG’s brand new podcast, which is called “Plant People.” We’ll put a link in our show notes along with links to more resources, including Xander Peters’ Smithsonian article about the Ike Dike.Klimek: Before we let you go, let’s give you one last dinner party fact to tide you over as we wrap up our season. Ted Scheinman: I’m Ted Scheinman. I’m a senior editor here at Smithsonian magazine, and I recently edited a great piece by our frequent contributor Richard Grant about Akito Kawahara, who is a butterfly scientist at the University of Florida. And Kawahara’s recent research has changed our understanding of butterflies in major ways. He has traced the evolution of butterflies directly from moths. Butterflies became butterflies when they became day-flying, essentially. But a really curious and, to me, sort of funny wrinkle here is that some of those butterflies who escaped the night and became day-flying, then evolved back into being night fliers and into essentially being moths again, which I can’t help but consider a sort of step backward, like moving back in with your parents or something. But it goes to show you that, you know, evolution is not, you know, directional. And it always brings up some crazy stuff.Klimek: I hope you liked this season of “There’s More of That.” We did something new for us, and we hope that our episodes gave you a sense of what the world of Smithsonian magazine is all about. We’d love to hear from you about how the season was and, more importantly, what you want to hear more of. We’re taking time between seasons to make the show even better. Having your help is key. So if you have the time to help us design our future episodes, please take this survey. You can find it at SmithsonianMag.com/podcastsurvey. It should take about five minutes. “There’s More to That” is a production of Smithsonian magazine and PRX Productions. From the magazine. Our team is me, Debra Rosenberg and Brian Wolly. From PRX, our team is Jessica Miller, Genevieve Sponsler, Adriana Rozas Rivera, Ry Dorsey and Edwin Ochoa. The executive producer of PRX Productions is Jocelyn Gonzales. Our episode artwork is by Emily Lankiewicz. Fact-checking by Stephanie Abramson. Our music is from APM Music. I’m Chris Klimek. Thank you for listening. Get the latest Science stories in your inbox.

A massive project prompted by the wildly destructive Hurricane Ike offers a solutions-based preview of our climate future

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Illustration by Emily Lankiewicz / Images via public domain / Library of Congress / FEMA / NASA / Carl & Ann Purcell / Getty Images

After Hurricane Ike destroyed thousands of homes and inflicted an estimated $30 billion in damages in 2008, engineers hatched an ambitious plan to protect southeast Texas and its coastal refineries and shipping routes from violent storms. The $34 billion collaboration spearheaded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is a harbinger of the type of massive public works projects that could be required to protect coastal cities like New York and Miami as sea levels rise and hurricanes become less predictable and more severe due to climate change.

In this episode of “There’s More to That,” Smithsonian magazine contributor and Texas native Xander Peters reflects on his experiences growing up in a hurricane corridor and tells us how the wildly ambitious effort came together. Then, Eric Sanderson, an ecological historian, tells us how the project could be applied to other low-lying coastal cities.

A transcript is below. To subscribe to “There’s More to That,” and to listen to past episodes on how a new generation of high-end West African restaurants is revealing the roots of “Southern” cuisine, why Colombian conservationists are now trying to sterilize the hippos descended from drug kingpin Pablo Escobar’s personal menagerie, what humans’ great acumen for sweating has contributed to our evolution and more, find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.


Chris Klimek: What part of Texas are you from?

Xander Peters: I’m over here in East Texas. We’re about 30 miles from the Louisiana border.

Klimek: Xander Peters is a contributor to Smithsonian magazine.

Peters: It’s a real small town, about 2,000 people.

Klimek: What’s life like there?

Peters: As a 33-year-old single guy? Kind of boring at times, but it’s home, you know. Not a lot of people move here, but not a lot of people leave, either. So maybe that speaks for itself.

Klimek: What’s the geography like?

Peters: It’s marshy. It’s wet. We’re kind of the last stretch of the Louisiana swamp, as we all know it. So it’s a wet, humid, difficult place at times.

Klimek: One of the constants in Xander’s life growing up in East Texas was hurricanes.

Peters: The most memorable was in 2005. Hurricane Rita pretty much was a direct impact to the region. I think it was my freshman year of high school. The power was out for three or four weeks. Society literally shut down. It was hard to get gas. You couldn’t really get groceries. Of course, there was Hurricane Harvey in 2017, and the list goes on. But it’s a fact of life here.

Klimek: This area has already been impacted by hurricanes this summer, and there may be more to come. In July, Hurricane Beryl left millions without power in the dangerously high heat, leading to more than 20 deaths. Local officials can’t prevent these big storms, but they can try to prevent the damage, which is why one of the most ambitious and expensive infrastructure projects in the country is in progress, right there along the Galveston coast. But will it be enough to prevent loss of property and life? Or do we need an entirely different way of thinking?

From Smithsonian magazine and PRX Productions, this is “There’s More to That,” the show that’s glad to be your nerdy listening alternative to the song of the summer. In this episode, we learn about the so-called Ike Dike going up in East Texas, as well as alternative flood prevention efforts that rely on nature itself. I’m Chris Klimek.


Klimek: In the July/August issue of Smithsonian magazine, Xander Peters wrote about a place just a short drive from his hometown: the Bolivar Peninsula.

Peters: It’s hard to imagine a more vulnerable geographic location than Bolivar Peninsula. It’s almost totally surrounded by water, so when a storm surge comes, it comes in nearly every direction.

Klimek: What’s this region’s history with big storms?

Peters: It’s hard to talk about southeast Texas without talking about its storms. It’s defined not just every generation, but every decade. Going back to the Galveston Storm of 1900, which claimed the most fatalities of any American natural disaster. We had Harvey in 2017, which was catastrophic flooding. The list goes on. At this point, I have mixed up the more recent names. I feel like, you know, your grandmother kind of does a roll call of all the children in the family. That’s how I feel about hurricanes now.

Klimek: The biggest storm in Xander’s recent memory was 2008’s Hurricane Ike.

Peters: We’d never seen the kind of storm surge result from a hurricane as we saw from Ike. And after that storm, it actually changed the way the National Hurricane Center conducts analysis and gives insight ahead of event into a storm surge. And, really, our broader understanding of what creates the disaster aspect of this kind of natural disaster.

Klimek: Was it forecasted to be as catastrophic as it was?

Peters: We knew it was going to be bad. It was a mandatory evacuation for, I think, even up to my region in East Texas, about 100 miles north of the coast. So we knew it was going to be bad. We at first thought it was going to be a direct hit to the Houston shipping channel, which is all kinds of bad news. We’re looking at $900 billion of goods that go up and down, much of which is oil and gas related, up and down the Houston shipping channel every year. We have the world’s largest petrochemical corridor. And if it’s a fuel, if it’s a gas, it’s being refined there. It’s being made there somehow. And then it’s going to faraway places like Europe.

But we got lucky. It missed the shipping channel by about two miles, and it hit around Galveston and Bolivar instead. So Bolivar was not so lucky. But in terms of the larger human toll, very lucky. Because if a storm surge hits the Houston shipping channel directly, we could be looking at a Chernobyl-like event, just given some of the refining capacity across the region.

Klimek: What did it look like there on the peninsula after Ike?

Peters: There was nothing left. Sixty to 80 percent of the structures were gone. You look at Highway 87, which stretches down pretty much the entire span of the peninsula, and [it was covered in] one or two feet of sediment and mud. There were cattle carcasses, alligator carcasses. There were snakes and rats running wild, confused. There were laundry machines scattered everywhere. There was twisted metal, broken telephone poles, everything in a million huge piles.

Klimek: In your story, you mentioned a smell that was very particular.

Peters: Yeah. Death lingered for months. I mentioned the cattle carcasses, and there are human carcasses in some places. And all the grasses and the stuff in people’s houses was molding and rotting, and there’s just every foul smell you can imagine. I’m not a military veteran. I’ve never fought in a war. But I can imagine that’s what a battlefield would smell like, you know?

Klimek: For more than 100 years, people in the area have been trying to prevent storm surges like this one.

Peters: After the Galveston Storm in 1900, they built a kind of state-of-the-art seawall, which has been raised a couple times, if I’m not mistaken, over the last century or so. It was commissioned only a few years after the storm. Meanwhile, you look at Bolivar Peninsula, it has none of those same infrastructure protections.

Klimek: So how did the idea of the Ike Dike come together?

Peters: A lot of arguing.

Klimek: The Ike Dike is the informal name for the massive infrastructure project that officials are betting the future of the Bolivar Peninsula on. Officially called the coastal Texas project, it involves three dozen sea gates leading up to the Houston shipping channel, and large concrete floodwalls to reinforce the city of Galveston. With a $34 billion price tag, it’s being overseen by the Army Corps of Engineers, but it was first envisioned by a local researcher.

Peters: Dr. William Merrell. He’s a professor at Texas A&M Galveston, and he’s a marine scientist. He and his wife are also investors in some of the antique architecture across Galveston. As Ike blew in, he came up with a concept that was a barrier system around Galveston that would open and close ahead of events such as Ike. He sat down that evening, as the lights remained out, and started sketching out some of the first designs of what the federal government will break ground on in the coming months—after some 16 years.

Klimek: Part of the delay came from the controversial nature of the project. Critics argued the Ike Dike would do irreparable damage to the environment, that it was too complex to work and that it was too expensive. Several different groups submitted their own plans. But after local officials asked Congress to step in, the Army Corps of Engineers was put in charge. Federal help comes with federal money.

Klimek (to Peters): Who’s funding this, and what kind of money are we talking about?

Peters: Sixty-five percent is coming from the federal government. Texas will pick up the remaining 35 percent. Only about $500,000 of that’s been allocated so far. But the Army Corps says accounting for inflation and everything else that threw it off the end of the project, we’re probably looking at something close to $55 billion. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s higher than that.

Klimek: All right. So, assuming all this investment buys what we hope it does, how is the dike intended to protect Galveston from storm surges? How will it work?

Peters: The whole idea is to stop the water at the sea, not let the water get into the Houston Ship Channel, which causes flooding all the way across it. So essentially, it’s a big gate that, in theory, will stop this huge wall of water as it surges toward the coast ahead of hurricane events like Ike and other ones. It draws on a Dutch flood theory, and the Dutch have some of the earliest forms of flood mitigation systems. Nothing like this has ever been even attempted in the U.S. Not at this scale, not with these high of stakes. It’s a new defining of how not just the federal government, but state governments as well, are going to approach building our way out of the climate crisis.

Klimek: How will the gate-and-ring system work?

Peters: Twenty-four to 48 hours ahead of a storm surge event, the alerts start going out, and they start moving some of the first ships out of the Houston Ship Channel. And, essentially, they have to hit that button to close the two main gates at the right time so that not too much water gets past it as the storm surge begins coming in in the 12 or 18 hours ahead of a hurricane. When I think of the Ike Dike gates closing, I think of, like, Indiana Jones when the stone rolls out of the cave after him, in terms of what these massive walls will look like moving toward each other.

Klimek: How will the Ike Dike incorporate natural storm barriers like sand dunes?

Peters: There along Bolivar Peninsula, we’re going to see a massive dune system. I think it was 12- to 14-foot dunes with a swale between them. That is going to line the stretch between Highway 87 and the beachfront. And that’s just piling sediment and sand on top of each other to create a wall. That’s nothing different than what the tides have done themselves, except to a much, much, much larger degree. And then in other places, we’re going to see wetlands restoration, which helps buffer storm surge from the coast. I think it was 6,600 acres of wetlands restoration or remediation for similar marshlands. So it’s equally significant — the natural restoration process — as much as the engineering phase of the project.

Klimek: What kind of concerns have environmentalists raised about the coastal Texas project?

Peters: Rightful ones, actually. It’s to be expected when you essentially inject these enormous concrete structures into ecosystems. Over the last 50 years in the Netherlands, environmental researchers have noticed changes to ecosystems, sediment patterns being shifted around. And that’s the same concern that we’re seeing on the Texas coast. These are unprecedented actions. A lot of this project is operating on hypothesis and theory. We probably can expect to see some ecological changes along the Texas coast as a result of it long term.

Klimek: So how does what they’re trying to do in Galveston reflect how we’re responding nationally to increasingly severe storms and floods?

Peters: I guess we’re paying attention now. It took a long time to get to this point. We’re approaching the 16-year anniversary of Ike, and you look at the Houston Ship Channel. You look at Bolivar and the months after Ike. It’s a pretty convincing argument. And over the years, we’ve seen the same argument made over and over. It’s very slow-moving, and I feel it’s very difficult to respond to a fast-moving crisis with a slow-moving solution, but it seems to be the best we have.


Klimek: For more context on floods and their potential solutions, we reached out to an expert.

Eric Sanderson: Hi everyone, I’m Dr. Eric Sanderson. I’m the vice president for urban conservation at the New York Botanical Garden. I live and work in New York City, and I’ve studied the historical ecology of New York for many years.

Klimek: Eric recently spoke about flooding on New York Botanical Garden’s new podcast, “Plant People.” And while New York City may be far from Houston, it faces many of the same challenges.

Sanderson: I was here during Hurricane Sandy, and I was here during Hurricane Ida. And after Sandy, I made this map that showed that the areas that flooded during Sandy were more or less where the tidal marshes were around the city. And I showed that around. And at the time, a lot of people are like, oh, well, that’s kind of interesting. But I guess that makes sense. Those would be the lowest places, right? But then Hurricane Ida happened in 2021, and Hurricane Ida was not a coastal storm, but an intense rainstorm. And what re-emerged were the upland streams and wetlands and ponds and places that people weren’t expecting. I made a map there, kind of compared that, and I started talking about it, and I wrote a little thing that was in the New York Times that just made the case that the water is going to go where the water is going to go, and that’s going to be downhill, and that’s going to be where the old streams were.

Klimek: Eric does a lot of work with historic maps. He overlays the original topography of a place with the city we know now to reveal where the rivers, lakes, streams and marshes used to be. Often these are the very same places that flood during storms.

Sanderson: We call those areas “blue zones,” and they cover some 20 percent of New York City. Places where about a million people live.

Klimek: So you’re saying that some of the flooding resulting from Hurricane Ida happened in surprising places, places that were not predicted to flood?

Sanderson: Yes. Basements were flooded. And it turns out that a lot of those places were former wetlands or ponds or streams. Because when we build, the city will fill in the wetland. But it’s actually hard to raise the topography high enough that you divert the direction of the water. The water goes where the water has always gone.

Klimek: Eric says some of the best examples can be found in our nation’s airports.

Sanderson: Think about where JFK Airport is, or LaGuardia Airport, in New York. JFK Airport is built on a big salt marsh. The Great Haystack, as it was called. LaGuardia is actually built in Bowery Bay. It was built in a bay! They filled in the bay, and they built the airport. And why is that? Why did they do that? It’s because by the time we decided we wanted commercial aviation in the late ’20s and 1930s, most of the upland had been built on, right?

And so, you know, you weren’t going to, like, clear Flatbush in order to build an airport. What the city did is they took whatever they had, which was the near-coastal zone, and they filled it in. That’s what LaGuardia [is]. And that’s what we did for JFK, and that’s Newark Airport. But that’s also, you know, Reagan Airport in D.C., and that’s also SFO in San Francisco and the Oakland Airport and practically every airport in a coastal city. And it’s because of the relationship of when that technological economic activity developed in the historical projection of the city. It’s fascinating.

Klimek: Are there specific human populations most likely to be affected by floods?

Sanderson: Yeah. Well, everybody who’s in a low spot. It turns out, of course, that those places have been wet for a long time. Many of them were less desirable. And there’s two consequences of that: One is that they’re disproportionately in public hands, still. So there are places where schools are, where public housing is, where parks are. Because those places were less desirable for private development in the past. And so they tended to stay in the public sphere. The other sort of important factor is poor people. You know, people with less power and less financial capacity tend to go to the places that are more affordable and in some sense have been, you know, shunted by the various systematic mechanisms. You know, redlining and these sorts of things tend to push people into certain precincts of the city. It just turns out that some of those precincts of the city were formerly wetlands, and then those former wetlands are starting to flood again. We did an analysis of our blue zones against environmental justice areas of the city. And about a third of the blue zones overlap with areas that are identified as environmental justice communities.

Klimek: Our magazine story about flooding is largely set in Houston, which, you know, in recent days as we’re speaking has been hit by Hurricane Beryl-related flooding. But this obviously has been a problem there for decades, considering that Houston, too, was built on a swamp. Why are so many of our major U.S. cities built on floodplains?

Sanderson: They weren’t built to destroy swamps, per se. It’s more, if you think about where it’s a good place to put a city, there’s sort of four factors. One is that there is food. So you have to have agricultural land nearby, and you need water. You need fresh water, right? You also want to be on a trade route. So that means cities like to be on the coast, or on major rivers, or some way of moving stuff around. And the fourth one is defense. A lot of cities were founded at a time where, you know, you had to worry about other people. So they’re often in defensive places. It’s maybe worth saying, Chris, that once a city is established, the next best place to put a city is right beside the city you already have. Once you have that core, then they tend to grow out sort of radially from them.

Klimek: So in Houston, the so-called Ike Dike, this massive infrastructure project—I want to ask how you feel about these kinds of large-scale solutions. Is there a limit to what can be achieved with these kinds of massive infrastructure projects?

Sanderson: I can’t speak specifically to the details of Houston, but there’s similar sorts of things proposed here in New York. And what I would just say is, I don’t think you can solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created it in the first place.

There was this idea that developed during the Enlightenment, and was expressed through the Industrial Age and into the 20th century, that we could basically control nature. That we were smarter and more powerful than nature is. And the consequences of that are that we have radically changed the atmospheric composition of the Earth in such a way that it’s holding in more energy and creating these storms. So there’s that. And then, you know, we thought, “We can build on a beach, we can build on a wetland. We’ll just fill it in; it’ll be fine.” But we didn’t anticipate sea-level rise and climate change and more severe storms. And so I really think this is a moment where we need a different way of thinking and another kind of wisdom.

Klimek: What would a more comprehensive long-term solution for a coastal city, whether it’s Houston or New York, what would that look like if we had some way to address all of this pre-existing construction, and the fact that we’re having to interpolate centuries of prior development? If we could somehow put that aside and just think about the future, what would you do?

Sanderson: So I would take the historical lesson, which is that we’ve overbuilt in some places, we built in places that we shouldn’t have. And so, what should we do? I think there are some places where we need to invest in nature instead of more infrastructure. I think it’s actually the reverse thing. Don’t build a giant wall; build a giant park. Don’t build a new storm drain; build a stream. Don’t build another massive retention pond that you don’t know how big to make it; build a wetland that knows how to adapt to changing conditions.

And that’s hard, because it means that it just isn’t a problem of the neighborhoods that are flooding. It’s also a problem of the upland areas that aren’t flooding. If a million people need to move, and we need to build another million housing units in safer places—and probably more to help with the housing affordability and other things, right? This is what I mean. It challenges us at many levels. It challenges us in terms of the wisdom to know what to do as an individual person or individual family, but it also challenges our social structures. We need to have a mechanism to try and work that out, and then we need to restore the nature that we destroyed, and that will save us.

Klimek: Do plants have a role to play in addressing some of the problems we’re having with flooding?

Sanderson: Planting really is the key here. And that’s what I mean by restoring nature from a water perspective. When you see a tree, you should think of a straw. You have this organism that has these roots that are going down into the ground, and they’re pulling the water out and they’re putting it back in the atmosphere. The traditional way of managing water in the city is to build pipes and infrastructures that replace the streams, right? And then take it to the water treatment plants. That’s sort of this one way of managing water. And the goal is to get rid of it as fast as possible. Nature’s way is: There’s many routes that water can take. Water can run down a stream, but it can also percolate into the ground and into the aquifer. Or it can evaporate or evapotranspiration through trees and up into the atmosphere, right? It has multiple pathways to go.

So these are all sorts of lessons out of ecology that we can apply with plants to make flooding better. More trees is going to help with interception. It’s going to help with groundwater flows, and it’s going to help with evapotranspiration. More wetland plants is going to help with slowing the water, holding the water and providing habitat for other organisms that use that water. Nature’s been at this for a long time. Like, it really has a lot of great tricks that we can lean into in a way that can make our lives better, too.

Klimek: Eric spoke about another innovative solution called “stream daylighting.” Most of the small streams that used to exist in the landscape have been forced underground, rerouted into pipes or otherwise covered by our urban infrastructure. Daylighting restores the streams, bringing them back up to the surface.

Sanderson: Here in New York City, there’s this fascinating story on Staten Island that when Staten Island was developing, there was this moment where they were about to spend a lot of money on their sewage infrastructure. And then someone said, well, why don’t we put some of that money into just restoring the streams? And then the streams can help with the stormwater. We can do some adaptations. We can build some ponds and things to help hold a little bit more water in the system. And then the sewage system can just deal with the sewage and not have to deal with the stormwater.

But then there’s other things that are being invented, like a green roof. You know, a green roof actually slows the water down. And it used to be that our green roofs, you know, were pretty shallow. But there’s been a lot of experimentation. I was slightly involved with a project that Google built in New York, where they took an old industrial building that was strong enough that they used to drive trains into this building, like locomotives, at the end of the High Line. It’s now an office building, and they popped up the middle of it to create the office structures, and then they put green roofs on them, and those green roofs could hold enough weight that they can have trees on them. Trees and shrubs and plants. And then they planted them with 95 percent native plants. So they’re doing the water thing and they’re doing the biodiversity thing at the same time. It’s a really beautiful project, and an acre and a half of habitat on the West Side of Manhattan. Incredible.

Klimek: The solutions to flooding as a result of coastal surges—are those different from rainfall-induced flooding, or do we address them in the same way?

Sanderson: We have to address them in different kinds of ways, because the coastal storm surge, that’s the sea level. And then the waves that are being driven by a storm. And so that’s really about, in my view, dunes and beaches and maybe oyster reefs to help break that energy of the storm water and then salt marshes to help absorb it.

If it’s an intense rainfall, I think that’s about streams and wetlands and interior modifications giving the water someplace to go. The problem is that you could try and solve one and mess up the other. I think this is why the engineers are so interested in this problem, and they can design something if you tell them what to design for. It’s easy to do the design, but then to miss the specification by a little bit.

Remember during Hurricane Sandy when there was that famous photograph of Lower Manhattan being all dark? That’s because the flood took out a power plant that was on the East Side of Manhattan. There was on a little hill beside an old salt marsh. It was designed to be 12 feet above the tide, and that storm surge was 14 feet. So it was just two feet over. You know, like, if they designed it at 14 or 16 feet or would have been OK. When they built that thing, nobody knew exactly what it was. You’re taking a guess. You’re sort of rolling the dice. Natural systems are adaptive on their own.

So it’s not like there’s a design blueprint for nature that says, this is exactly what it’ll do. Nature’s a little bit more adaptable, and it can do kind of different sorts of things. And I think that’s a strength in the long run. But it makes people uncertain in the short run.

Klimek: Are there any other solutions we haven’t gotten to yet, either in New York City or other cities, approaches to addressing flooding that you find worthy of exploration?

Sanderson: We didn’t mention specifically things like bioswales, which are sort of like a small little version of a forest or a little wetland on the side of a street. There’s this idea of permeable pavers, you know, allowing water to get to the ground. Essentially, we’ve covered our cities in stone because we don’t like mud. Essentially, we’ve paved over the city, and our buildings are built in these hard materials, which are like stone and glass and so forth. And so that’s why the water sheets off of it.

And, you know, anybody can do this experiment. You just take a bucket of water and go outside and pour it on a rock and watch how fast the water comes off. And then you pour it on the adjacent soil and you’ll see how fast it infiltrates to the ground and doesn’t run off. And so we’ve hardened the city. Anything we can do to soften the city that way, to expose the soil, it’s going to help us with water. I think the only thing to say about that, of course, is that, you know, in the historical conditions, when it was a forest, the water that was in the ground would either eventually emerge in a spring and a stream or go down into the aquifer and then out into the ocean.

Now we have other stuff that’s also on the ground, like the subway system and like all the electrical wires, and all the plumbing. So it’s a little bit more complicated. There’s a lot of work in cities to put water in the ground, and I totally understand why. But if you’re ever in New York City on a rainy day, it’s raining above the ground and it’s raining below the ground, in the subway system. Water is single-minded like this. It just wants to go downhill.

Klimek: It sounds like we really need to think about more than just rerouting water to solve some of these problems that coastal cities are experiencing. What are the opportunities that we could open up by thinking about more than just moving excess water from one place to another place?

Sanderson: Well, I think we need to think about the mitigation side. Of course, everything we’ve talked about adapting to flooding doesn’t mean we don’t have to do something about trying to decrease the amount of carbon that’s in the atmosphere. Floods are a big problem in cities, both because of the way we’ve made our cities and because of the way cities have changed the atmosphere. I mean, there’s the basic climate change fact that the atmosphere has a lot more carbon dioxide in it and other greenhouse gases than it did before. Those holding the heat, the warmer air holds more water and has more energy. And so that creates larger storms. So there’s that.

One thing I think a lot about is we tend to forget that we make a lot of choices about how we live in the city. So there’s a sort of lifestyle aspect to this, as well as a sort of urban planning aspect to it, if you like. And I think we could do a lot more on the lifestyle side. Some of that is just coming to this expectation that, yes, there’s going to be flooding in our cities and another ecosystems, right? These things are not going away anytime soon. So we just need to, like, reset, maybe, our expectation that we can build pipes large enough to handle all the water and that, you know, despite whatever the conditions are, if it’s pouring rain, maybe you can’t go outside, or maybe you can’t do something that you were able to do before. So that’s one thing.

A second one is to sort of think about those sort of lifestyle choices in terms of all the things you need to do about them. Flooding, about where the water goes, that’s in conversation with where the cars go and where people go. So the transportation networks. There’s some clever ideas there. If you look at the New York City streets now, they’re designed with this bend, so they’re higher in the middle so that the water sheets off toward the gutters on the side. But there’s been some experiments in cities around the world to build them the other way, lower in the middle, and the water comes in. And so basically when there’s a flood, you close the road. And for the short period of time, that road is a stream. Not traffic. It’s a stream. And it turns out that some of our roads are on old streams. And so that kind of solution could work. So these are quite clever things that you can do.

Klimek: How would it benefit people to take that into account, to start to think more ecologically and adjust our expectations? How would we ultimately benefit from this?

Sanderson: Well, in the near term, we won’t die, right? Like we won’t drown, and we won’t lose our stuff, and we won’t have the social unrest that arises from those bad things. But to sort of turn around in a positive mode at some level, I think this is what life is for, right? Knowing how to live here on Earth with the nature that we have. It’s that kind of deep-seated understanding and desire to be the best person I can be in this amazing, amazing planet that we have that has led my whole career in conservation.

Klimek: Eric Sanderson is the vice president of urban conservation for the New York Botanical Garden. He is also the author of Mannahatta: A Natural History of New York City, which is an ecological history of Manhattan Island. Thank you, Dr. Sanderson, for talking with us.

Sanderson: Terrific. Thank you so much, Chris.

Klimek: To hear more from Eric Sanderson, subscribe to NYBG’s brand new podcast, which is called “Plant People.” We’ll put a link in our show notes along with links to more resources, including Xander Peters’ Smithsonian article about the Ike Dike.


Klimek: Before we let you go, let’s give you one last dinner party fact to tide you over as we wrap up our season.

Ted Scheinman: I’m Ted Scheinman. I’m a senior editor here at Smithsonian magazine, and I recently edited a great piece by our frequent contributor Richard Grant about Akito Kawahara, who is a butterfly scientist at the University of Florida. And Kawahara’s recent research has changed our understanding of butterflies in major ways. He has traced the evolution of butterflies directly from moths. Butterflies became butterflies when they became day-flying, essentially. But a really curious and, to me, sort of funny wrinkle here is that some of those butterflies who escaped the night and became day-flying, then evolved back into being night fliers and into essentially being moths again, which I can’t help but consider a sort of step backward, like moving back in with your parents or something. But it goes to show you that, you know, evolution is not, you know, directional. And it always brings up some crazy stuff.


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How Climate Change Is Increasing Landslide Risk Worldwide

As warming temperatures bring more extreme rain to the mountains, debris flows are on the rise

The landslide behind my neighbor’s backyard doesn’t exist—not according to the New York State landslide map or Greene County’s hazard-mitigation plan or the federal inventory managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. But when you’re standing in the middle of the debris field, the violence of the event is still evident 14 years after it occurred. The fan of the landslide, where a surge of boulders and mud blasted the forest open after rushing down the steeper slopes of Arizona Mountain in the Catskills, is about 100 feet wide—an undulating plane of rocks, mangled tree trunks, and invasive plants such as Japanese stiltgrass that thrive in disturbed areas.On a hot July day the seasonal stream that runs through this ravine, named the Shingle Kill, is small enough to step over. When Tropical Storm Irene hovered over these mountains on August 28, 2011, the Shingle Kill swelled like all the otherwise unremarkable streams in the area, frothing downhill in a torrent the color of chocolate milk. This storm was a particularly bad one, dropping up to 18 inches of rain on the northeastern escarpment of the Catskills. Throughout the region explosive rivers eroded their banks, flooding towns and ripping away buildings.The first house the Shingle Kill passes as it emerges into our community belonged at the time to Diane and Ken Herchenroder, who had lived there for nearly three decades. In the past, when the Shingle Kill occasionally raged, they could hear rocks colliding in the streambed. But this time it was louder—and faster.On supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.From the screened-in front porch of their 1880s colonial, they saw the stream crest its banks. First it took out a 32-foot-long footbridge that connected one side of the property to the other. Then trees started coming downriver, crashing into a culvert at the bottom of the yard. The culvert clogged, washing out the road. Water got diverted across their lawn on one side of the stream, and in the other direction it blew out the garage side door, then the front doors. (Their lawn tractor was found downstream days later.) Diane watched her row of beloved lilac bushes, probably more than 100 years old and 15 feet tall, get ripped from their roots. “They just floated away. And we thought, that’s going to be it,” she recalls. “Then we heard a rumble like a train barreling down the mountain.”Less than 2,000 feet above, in a hollow high on Arizona Mountain, oversaturated soils released themselves into the headwaters of the Shingle Kill, picking up speed and whatever materials the flow encountered as it carved downhill.As the slope flattened out, the landslide blew open the channel and spread out, depositing a wall of uprooted trees just upstream of the house. A slurry of rocks and mud continued flowing, plugging the Shingle Kill streambed all the way to the road, where it was stopped by the debris dam at the culvert.Robert Titus, a retired geology professor, and his wife, Johanna Titus, explored the slide about a month later for their Kaatskill Geologist column in a local newspaper. “We don’t use the words ‘awe,’ ‘awesome’ or ‘awed’ very often; we save them for when they are truly appropriate,” they wrote. “This was one of those times.” They described scenes that were evidence of boulders “floating on the moving muds,” as well as hundreds of “twisted and broken trees” that had been thrown high above the stream bank and were now stranded on top of the ravine. The Tituses recently told me it was unlike anything they had seen before or since.In July 2025, days of heavy rain triggered multiple mudslides and rockslides in New York State's Adirondacks, including this one on Mount Colden. It blocked access to hiking trails in a popular recreation spot in the High Peaks Wilderness area.To this day, the scar where the landslide began is unmissable from miles away.That this landslide didn’t get recorded is somewhat a quirk of disaster recovery. Debris from the slide itself wasn’t the singular cause of damage to any buildings or roads, so there was no financial fingerprint. The slide didn’t injure or kill anyone. Landslides aren’t mapped in the same way that the Federal Emergency Management Agency, for instance, tracks flood zones and inundation risk, and a rate of occurrence can’t be modeled like a flood. Because landslide insurance practically doesn’t exist in most of the country, no one needs the data to assess actuarial risk for homeowners. According to the New York Geological Survey, the vast majority of landslides in the state go unreported.But the Shingle Kill landslide did change the mountainside that day. Joel DuBois, director of the Greene County Department of Soil and Water, visited the site in the days after Irene and reviewed some recent photos of the stream corridor that was affected by the debris flow. “There appear to be a number of cycles of incision and aggradation,” DuBois wrote. “That is to say that channel incision, or down-cutting, results in steeper bank angles and higher bank heights, leaving the adjacent hillsides susceptible to landslide” both during and after flood events. The sediment then flows downstream and accumulates at existing debris dams, which tends to cause channels to migrate laterally, he explained. That too can trigger landslide activity.The area remains vulnerable at a time when landslide risk is expected to increase across much of the northeastern U.S.—as well as a lot of the world. That’s because climate change is causing concentrated bursts of rain that fall over a short period to occur more frequently. Such intense rainfall events are known to be the biggest trigger of landslides.It’s not quite right to say landslides aren’t common in the Catskills, because this superold plateau has been eroding for perhaps a few hundred million years. On a nongeological timescale, though, landslide susceptibility isn’t something many people think about in New York State, and the state geological survey can estimate only that between 100 and 400 occur every year.As warmer temperatures lead to more moisture in the air, climate change is quickly warping that math. In the Northeast, the heaviest rainstorms are now 60 percent heavier than they were in the 1950s, according to the Fifth National Climate Assessment. In a 2023 study, researchers at Dartmouth College found that extreme precipitation in the region will increase by 52 percent by the end of this century, mostly because of a higher number of such events each year. “Our landscape has pretty much been in equilibrium, for the most part, since the glaciers left,” Andrew Kozlowski, a New York State geologist, explained during a 2022 USGS presentation. “With climate change, we may be shifting that equilibrium and throwing all of this completely off balance, and there’s going to be a natural readjustment.”“Landslide” is the broad term for the movement of soils, rocks, and other debris down a slope. There are several different classifications for landslides. Some, like the Shingle Kill debris flow, move far too fast to be outrun. More than any other factor, they are set off by an intense storm. Others, such as rotational slides—backward-curving masses of material that can be hundreds of feet deep—are more sensitive to rainfall over the course of a season. They can move very slowly when a destabilized slope takes months to fail.Landslides can happen pretty much anywhere certain conditions exist but are most common in very steep mountain terrain where plenty of rain falls. In 2024 the U.S. Landslide Susceptibility Index was released and stated that 44 percent of the land in the U.S. could potentially experience landslide activity. Susceptibility is based partly on where landslides have occurred previously, and it wasn’t until the past decade that high-resolution lidar made it possible for states to survey vast swaths of land for evidence and clues. The extent to which states have done so is uneven.Benjamin DeJong, director of the Vermont Geological Survey, says you can think of landslide susceptibility as an inexact recipe. You’re going to need steeper slopes to achieve some kind of baseload that puts weight on the slope. Next, add loose, unconsolidated materials that can become saturated with water. If those saturated materials are overlying or underlying another kind of material that has very different permeability, meaning its ability to take in water, that contrast is a big factor.“By far the year that had the greatest total landslides that I’ve recorded was 2024. Last year was completely off the scale.” —David Petley University of HullThen you look at what’s on the base and on the top of the slope. If the base, or toe, is undercut—by a road, for instance, or a meandering stream—that’s going to make the slope more susceptible. Overloading the top, or head, of a slope with weight also drives it toward failure.The fourth ingredient is the loss of vegetation that helps to hold soils together. In California, for example, this loss happens on a regular cycle with wildfires. Vermont, DeJong says, went through an experiment in the 1800s where “the state tried to turn itself into Scotland by cutting down all the trees and bringing in sheep.” It was a bad idea that caused erosion and mass slope failure everywhere. The state gave up on that plan and allowed the forests to regrow. The last variable is how the slope handles stormwater. With more extreme precipitation events, it doesn’t take much mismanagement of a slope for the heavy weight of rain to concentrate in ways that cause the slope to fail.Geologist David Petley, who writes the Landslide Blog for the American Geophysical Union, has been maintaining a database of deadly landslides worldwide since 2004. He’s seen a clear long-term trend. “But by far—by far—the year that had the greatest total landslides that I’ve recorded was 2024,” he says. “Last year was completely off the scale.” Why? “The most simple hypothesis is that it was the year with the highest-ever global temperature. I do genuinely think it’s that simple.” There’s solid evidence that high atmospheric temperature, and possibly high sea-surface temperatures as well, drove high-precipitation events globally. “Last year I saw an extraordinary frequency of big storms that were triggering hundreds of thousands of landslides,” Petley says. They occurred at different locations all over the world.In the U.S., the remnants of Hurricane Helene, which came ashore in Florida in September 2024, dumped between 20 and 30 inches of water over the mountains of North Carolina. The storm ended up triggering more than 2,000 landslides across the Southeast. According to the USGS, in some cases several smaller mudslides converged into a single channel, burying entire communities in debris. The total number of people killed by landslides specifically, versus by flooding or a combination of the two, is hard to parse. But one storm-triggered mudslide in Craigtown, N.C., swept through a house, killing 11 members of the Craig family for whom the town is named. During the storm, four successive landslides in that valley wiped out the town.In the Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, very old landslides might have been “brought back into activity” during Helene, Petley explains, reactivated by staggeringly intense rain. Scientists at World Weather Attribution pinned that extra intensity on climate change, reporting that it had made the storm’s rainfall throughout the Southeast about 10 percent heavier and the “unprecedented” rainfall totals over three days about 70 percent more likely than they would have been otherwise.In California, where dramatic debris flows have long been a concern, climate change is making matters worse in two ways. Bigger, more destructive wildfires wipe out more of the vegetation that was stabilizing the landscape. And then atmospheric rivers—a newer phenomenon consisting of long, narrow conveyer belts of moisture—arrive, bringing a series of intense rainfall events. Between December 2022 and January 2023 nine back-to-back atmospheric rivers struck California, leading to more than 600 landslides.Climate change is increasing landslide risk globally in other ways. In high mountain regions such as the European Alps and the Himalayas, melting permafrost and retreating glaciers are destabilizing steep slopes. A catastrophic glacier collapse in Switzerland this past summer destroyed an entire village; thankfully officials evacuated people just before it happened, but one person was killed.A section of the Shingle Kill streambed 14 years after a debris flow occurred on Arizona Mountain in New York State's Catskills during intense rain. The southern slope, shown on the left, continues to erode.Petley says the thing that’s surprised him most recently is the speed of change, especially during this past El Niño cycle. Strong rainfall events have always happened occasionally, but suddenly they are happening a lot. “I don’t think I fully understand why we’re seeing such a rapid shift to these events where a heavy rainfall will trigger 2,000 or 3,000 landslides in a relatively small area,” Petley says. In New Zealand in 2023, Cyclone Gabrielle triggered at least 100,000 landslides. Even in regions such as the Himalayas, where the monsoon season is becoming drier overall, the number of landslides is going up because the rainstorms that do arrive are more intense. “I worry a bit,” Petley says, “that the shift is happening so fast and becoming so extreme that in some places the risk is essentially unmanageable.”Vermont, like New York State, got clobbered by Tropical Storm Irene in 2011. DeJong, the Vermont state geologist, describes Irene as a wake-up call. “The mountains,” he says with a degree of irony, “are now where hurricanes come to die.”But it wasn’t until two freak July rainstorms—spaced exactly a year apart, one in 2023 and one in 2024—that the state’s geological survey became alarmed that landslides were going to be a much bigger problem than in the past. Given his experiences with Irene, DeJong expected the July 2023 storm to lead to maybe a handful of slides. Within a month of the storm his team had received more than 70 requests for landslide evaluations. Working on the ground in the aftermath of these two storms made DeJong realize that rainfall events at that scale “are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that are not immediately recognizable,” he says.Now the four-person Vermont Geological Survey team is working on putting together a landslide-susceptibility map. The goal is to start with a more technical tool for scientists that can be overlaid with forecasts from the National Weather Service, which would create debris-flow forecasts like the ones already produced by the Los Angeles Department of Public Works. If that’s successful, the next step, DeJong says, would be creating a map that’s more accessible to the public, something that a person who’s looking to buy a parcel of land could reference to do some due diligence on landslide risk.But that gets tricky. The city of Juneau, Alaska, carried out a mapping project to evaluate levels of risk, with the aim of incorporating that risk into its land-use planning in 2024. The maps also would have highlighted concerns with existing buildings, though, meaning homeowners identified as living in high-risk areas might see their property values decline. Juneau’s susceptibility map was vehemently rejected by the community last year and was not adopted. In Vermont, as in many places, evidence of slope instability—and even past failures—hardly factors into development or the issuing of building permits.Rising landslide risk in mountainous places also creates a difficult tension about how to adapt to the effects of climate change. Recent disasters have made clear that mountain valleys in certain regions may not be great places to live. In Vermont “we’re losing a lot of housing in our flood corridors—which is a good thing,” DeJong says. “We’re getting people out of harm’s way.” But the state, like many others around the country, has a housing crunch with the need to build more. “When we’ve lost options down in the valleys, that puts a lot of building pressure up onto our slopes,” he explains. “And it’s really hard to make the argument not to do that.” Successfully adapting to one climate effect means running headlong into another.There are many climate-related problems to worry about in my Catskills community: the surging numbers of disease-carrying ticks, the choking out of native plants by invasive species, the hurricane-remnant floods, the decrease in winter snowfall that would replenish the aquifers, the summertime whiplash between deluge and drought. The Shingle Kill landslide wasn’t on my radar as a potential climate problem until a massive, ultraluxury resort and “branded residences” development was proposed for the hillside next to it. The plan calls for building more than 85 new structures totaling 275,593 square feet on a 102-acre site, 45 percent of which is classified as having steep slopes. To do so, developers will have to cut down about 11 acres of trees. The site, like the rest of our hamlet, has no access to municipal water or sewage. In addition to lining ponds for water storage and building a wastewater-treatment plant, a road network will be cut into the mountainside.The public documents for the project do not appear to show that a geologist evaluated whether the weight of all that development, plus the deforestation and excavation during construction, might further destabilize the slopes of the Shingle Kill. Our town planning board approved the project in May 2025 without requiring an environmental impact statement that would have identified and attempted to mitigate the biggest hazards. (I am a member of a community group that is suing our town planning board, arguing it didn’t take a hard look at potentially significant adverse effects to the environment from this project, including on groundwater availability, erosion, flooding and landslide risk.)Recent intense rain events “are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that are not immediately recognizable.” —Benjamin DeJong Vermont Geological SurveyDiane and Ken Herchenroder’s house wasn’t damaged by the 2011 landslide, but the event did plenty of harm. Much of their property was rearranged by the acute displacement of raging water. The solid plug of rocks and mud, some 10 feet tall, had to be excavated from the streambed. Even once things were fixed, they didn’t want to stay. “We used to listen to the rain and the stream with the windows open, and it was very comforting,” Diane says from their house in New Hampshire, where they moved two years after the storm. “Honestly, after that slide occurred, Ken and I, I would have to say, have a little bit of post-traumatic stress from that.” Diane says her photographs of the landslide are on a CD somewhere; she hasn’t looked at them since. “I don’t really ever even talk about that day,” she says. “It was pretty devastating.”In 2018 Joe Merlino bought the Herchenroders’ former property, where he now lives with his daughter and his mother. A few years ago they had members of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers come assess ongoing erosion along the Shingle Kill. The streambed continues to widen, and a sharp curve just upstream of Merlino’s house means floodwaters could rush right at it. He recalls that in 2021, when Tropical Storm Henri came through the Catskills, boulders smashed against the bridge that provides access between his house and his mom’s trailer. “[The Army Corps] basically told us the erosion is not going to stop,” Merlino says.Merlino often walks along the edges of the fan with his dog, observing the changes to the old debris piles with each storm. The possibility of more landslide activity is never far from his mind, he says, especially with a major development approved for the hillside above his home.I asked him whether he gets scared every time there’s heavy rain. “I come home from work early,” he says, to keep an eye on things and intervene if necessary. A few years ago he moved his daughter’s bedroom to the front of the house, away from the steep pitch of his backyard. “My fear is about my living room, which is in the back and has a lot of glass,” he says. “I watch the water rip around that curve, and one day something is going to come through and take the side of my house right out.”Greene County, where the Merlino family and I both live, is one of the four counties identified by New York State as the most vulnerable to expected annual building loss from landslides in the future. The county has steep escarpments that slope into the Hudson River Valley, which is rich in clays and silts from Glacial Lake Albany, a prehistoric waterbody that drained some 10,500 years ago. “I think we’re going to see a lot more slope failures in some of these populated areas in the Hudson Valley,” Kozlowski, the New York State geologist, said in 2022.Greene County considered landslides a threat back in 2016. In 2023 the county revisited its hazard-mitigation plan; our town, Cairo, was the only municipality out of 19 that did not participate. In the updated plan, the county removed landslides as a hazard, reasoning that they are “unlikely to lead to a disaster.”It’s true that landslides don’t do the same economic harm to our county as flooding and ice storms. But when they do occur, rebuilding is rarely an option. When a family lost their house in the town of Catskill to a landslide after a heavy rain event in May 2024, there wasn’t much anyone could do but condemn the structure.With funding for emergency response and climate resilience endangered at the federal level, is it worth investing in susceptibility maps for landslides that may never occur? Should people hesitate to build on potentially unstable slopes when that’s perhaps less risky than living directly in a flood path?DeJong says these are valid questions, but after his experiences over the past few years, he sees things differently. “We in Vermont have, so far, been incredibly fortunate to not see any fatalities,” he says. He remembers an older couple who were sitting in their house in July 2023 when the slope behind it failed. The structure warped outward, bending absurdly into something “that looked like a fun house falling over on them,” he recalls. Emergency services extracted them relatively unharmed, but DeJong knows it could have been worse. It turned out a lot worse in western North Carolina during Helene, where for years many building codes dismissed the risk of construction on steep slopes.It might take only one bad slide to change people’s minds about the risk. Before 2014, DeJong says, Washington State, much like New England, did not pay much attention to landslides and had no landslide program in its state geological survey. But then a slope in Oso, about an hour outside Seattle, experienced a catastrophic failure, taking out a neighborhood and killing 43 people. The state now takes landslides very seriously.“The Oso slide of New England could be right around the corner,” DeJong says. “People will say, ‘Why didn’t we know about this hazard? X number of people just died.’” He hopes his team can get its landslide-susceptibility maps finished so that when big rainfall events are forecast for the Green Mountains, officials can warn people in especially risky areas. “We’re really trying to switch to being more proactive so that X never becomes a number.”

Sydney’s west on frontline for most extreme heat and biggest health risks – but inner city faces water threat

Western suburbs, where temperatures are often 5C warmer, need shaded bus stops, more green space and better environmental standards in rented homes, locals sayFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesFull Story: Rising sea levels and soaring heat deaths: will climate action match the risks?Sign up for climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s free Clear Air newsletter hereBud Moses is all too aware of the longer, hotter summers impacting his community in Sydney’s west.As black summer bushfires raged on 4 January 2020, Penrith was sweltering in temperatures of 48.9C, making it the hottest place on the planet that day. It was just one of a growing number of above-40C days Moses has witnessed in recent years. Continue reading...

Bud Moses is all too aware of the longer, hotter summers impacting his community in Sydney’s west.As black summer bushfires raged on 4 January 2020, Penrith was sweltering in temperatures of 48.9C, making it the hottest place on the planet that day. It was just one of a growing number of above-40C days Moses has witnessed in recent years.“We’ve seen the heat get a lot worse – it’s one of the clear physical attributes of climate change that most people seem to understand,” Moses, the western Sydney organiser of the Nature Conservation Council of New South Wales, said.Landmark climate report shows 'every Australian has a lot at stake', minister says – video“People talk about what impacts them – and here, that’s heatwaves, flooding and bushfires,” he said of the locals he meets when running Tabiea, a joint Nature Conservation Council and Arab Council Australia climate change awareness campaign targeting western Sydney’s culturally diverse community.“It’s a lot for them to take physically and mentally.”It’s no surprise to him that Sydney’s west and south have emerged as “heat-health risk” hotspots in the federal government’s long-awaited national climate risk assessment. Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletterWarming across the Australian continent has already reached 1.5C, Monday’s report by the Australian Climate Service (ACS) noted. Under a 3C scenario, the number of heat-related deaths in Sydney increases by 444%.With heatwaves causing more deaths in Australia than all other extreme events combined, the report found Blacktown and the outer west are some of Sydney’s most exposed suburbs when considering the health risks associated with ever-hotter summers.Extreme heat may lead to higher rates of heat-related illness which in turn will put additional strain on emergency services and hospital infrastructure, according to the assessment.Moses said many in his community live in rented or social housing and do not have access to air conditioning – and those who do limit its use because of cost-of-living pressures. The area needed shaded bus stops, more green space and better environmental standards in rented homes, he said.“If you talk to doctors in relation to heat stress, all the forecasts are showing that it’s going to have an impact, especially on old and vulnerable people,” Moses said.A temperature rise of 3C would, he said, “be dire”.Dr Judith Landberg, head of the ACS, told a Senate committee on Tuesday the number of heat-related deaths in Sydney was currently between 80 and 117 annually.Heat-health risk index map of Sydney, provided by the Australian Climate ServiceThe Blacktown mayor, Brad Bunting, said the report confirmed the experiences of and research undertaken by his council.“Blacktown is on the frontline of extreme heat, and the national report shows how serious the risks are for our community,” he said in a statement.The council is part of the Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, which developed the 2021 Heat Smart Western Sydney plan to prepare for and respond to heatwaves. The Blue Mountains, Liverpool, Cumberland and Hawkesbury councils are also members.“Urban heat is not just an environmental challenge. It affects health, liveability and how we plan our city,” Bunting said.Heat-health risk is lowered by urban greening, according to the report, with the leafy, generally affluent suburbs of the northern beaches, north Sydney and Hornsby found to have lower heat-health risk. The city’s eastern suburbs have a moderate heat-health risk.Dr Milton Speer, a meteorologist and fellow with the University Technology Sydney, said his research comparing weather observations from 1962 to 2021 between Observatory Hill on Sydney harbour and Richmond revealed the west was often 5C warmer.In the west, one in 10 days exceeded 35.4C. On the coast, one in 10 days was above 30.4C. One in 20 days reached 37.8C or more in the west.Speer said western Sydney was further from sea breezes which can regulate the heat – “and the fact that there are fewer trees is very important”.skip past newsletter promotionSign up to Clear Air AustraliaAdam Morton brings you incisive analysis about the politics and impact of the climate crisisPrivacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online ads, and content funded by outside parties. If you do not have an account, we will create a guest account for you on theguardian.com to send you this newsletter. You can complete full registration at any time. For more information about how we use your data see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.after newsletter promotion“Elderly people especially can suffer heat stress if exposed outside for long enough or at night if there’s no air con during heatwaves,” he said.Suburbs exposed to sea level riseAlongside rising temperatures, Sydney faces the threat of rising sea levels.Sea level rise, storm surges and extreme weather events make coastal cities particularly vulnerable given their extensive infrastructure, dense populations and economic significance, the report states.Suburbs with increased exposure to sea level rise include the inner-city suburbs of Darlinghurst, Haymarket, Millers Point, Double Bay and Darling Point, according to the assessment.Kogarah, in Sydney’s south, was also named – despite, like Darlinghurst, not being situated on the shoreline. Darlinghurst is generally about 50 metres above sea level, while Kogarah’s elevation is about 30 metres.Aerial view of flooding at North Narrabeen, on Sydney’s northern beaches, in April. Photograph: AAPIt is understood the report’s analysis included areas within 10km of the coastline and that the effects of sea level rise were not constrained to the coastline.The Australian National University emeritus professor and chair of the assessment’s expert advisory committee, Mark Howden, said its authors had taken a conservative approach which did not reflect current expert assessments of future sea level rise.In a 3C scenario, the sea level would rise 54cm, according to the report.A separate research paper had put sea level rise at a median point of 111cm within a range of 62cm-238cm in a high emissions scenario, he said.Saltwater intrusions into freshwater suppliesThe City of Sydney lord mayor, Clover Moore, said her council, which covers some of the country’s most densely populated postcodes, was doing its “best to ensure the city remains climate-resilient and adapts to additional extreme heat, drought, storms, flash flooding and rising sea levels” – but that heat was its priority.“We are most concerned about the impact of hotter days, for longer periods,” she said in a statement.“We are currently in the process of updating our floodplain management plans to prepare the city for sea level rise, while also advocating for state government guidance to be updated to reflect recent climate modelling.”She said addressing sea level rise was a bigger issue than any one council could address alone and should be led by state and federal governments.The assessment suggests the effect of Sydney’s rising sea level may be more widespread, with saltwater intrusions threatening freshwater supplies and water security across the city.A spokesperson for the Georges River council, which covers Kogarah, said in a statement the council was “committed to the current and future resilience” of the LGA and was actively planning for a climate-resilient future.They said the council would “consider the insights” in the report.

Sweeping California climate bills heading to Newsom's desk

California state lawmakers gave their stamp of approval over the weekend to a slate of sweeping energy and climate-related bills, which will now head to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) desk. The package's six bills — some of which passed with bipartisan support in an extended session on Saturday — marked a last-minute victory for Newsom, who...

California state lawmakers gave their stamp of approval over the weekend to a slate of sweeping energy and climate-related bills, which will now head to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) desk. The package's six bills — some of which passed with bipartisan support in an extended session on Saturday — marked a last-minute victory for Newsom, who negotiated the final terms of the legislation with State Senate and Assembly leaders over the past week. “We have agreed to historic reforms that will save money on your electric bills, stabilize gas supply, and slash toxic air pollution — all while fast-tracking California’s transition to a clean, green job-creating economy,” the governor said in a statement in the days leading up to the package’s passage. Within the package is a bill to increase the amount of climate credit appearing on utility bills, as well as another that would revive California’s ability to expand regional power markets via U.S. West clean energy. A third bill focused on improving utility wildfire safety by strengthening oversight and expanding a dedicated fund for wildfire readiness. The package also included an extension of the state’s cap-and-trade program, now to be known as “cap-and-invest.” This system, which sets emissions caps and distributes tradable credits within that framework, seeks to hold carbon polluters accountable by charging them for excessive emissions. Established by Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, the program was set to expire in 2030 but would now be reauthorized until 2045, if signed into law. The fifth bill in the package centered on strengthening local air pollution reduction efforts and oversight by extending monitoring periods, redoubling the efforts of state and local air quality agencies to deploy effective strategies. A final piece of legislation, which received pushback from some progressive lawmakers, involved the stabilization of both in-state petroleum production and refinery supply, while also offering protections to communities located near wells. The Center for Biological Diversity slammed the passage of this bill, arguing that it was included “as a last minute ‘gut and amend’ measure at the end of the legislative session.” The bill, the organization warned, exempts oil drilling in California’s Kern County from state environmental quality requirements for the next decade, allowing for the approval of up to 20,000 new wells. “It’s senseless and horrifying that California just gave its seal of approval to this reckless ‘drill, baby, drill’ bill,” Hollin Kretzmann, an attorney for the center, said in a statement. Other environmental groups, however, voiced their support for the suite of climate-related bills, with the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) commending the state for maintaining “its climate leadership.” NRDC staff members particularly praised the advancement of the cap-and-invest extension, as well as western grid regionalization and the wildfire protections. “While the Trump administration takes us backward, California will continue to address climate change, while improving affordability,” Victoria Rome, California government affairs director for the NRDC, said in a statement. “Our lives and prosperity depend on it.” In addition to the six-bill energy package, Newsom will also be receiving a selection of unrelated climate bills that received the legislature’s approval. Among those are first-in-the-nation legislation to require tests of prenatal vitamins for heavy metals, a public transportation funding bill and a plan to phase out toxic “forever chemicals” from cookware, food packaging and other consumer products. 

Shipping Companies Support a First-Ever Global Fee on Greenhouse Gases, Opposed by Trump Officials

Nearly 200 shipping companies said Monday they want the world’s largest maritime nations to adopt regulations that include the first-ever global fee on greenhouse gases to reduce their sector’s emissions

Nearly 200 shipping companies said Monday they want the world’s largest maritime nations to adopt regulations that include the first-ever global fee on greenhouse gases to reduce their sector’s emissions.The Getting to Zero Coalition, an alliance of companies, governments and intergovernmental organizations, is asking member states of the International Maritime Organization to support adopting regulations to transition to green shipping, including the fee, when they meet in London next month. The statement was shared exclusively with The Associated Press in advance. “Given the significance of the political decision being made, we think it is important that industry voices in favor of this adoption be heard,” Jesse Fahnestock, who leads decarbonization work at the Global Maritime Forum, said Monday. The forum manages the Getting to Zero Coalition.The Trump administration unequivocally rejects the proposal before the IMO and has threatened to retaliate if nations support it, setting the stage for a fight over the major climate deal. The U.S. considers the proposed regulatory framework “effectively a global carbon tax on Americans levied by an unaccountable U.N. organization,” the U.S. Secretaries of State, Commerce, Energy and Transportation said in a joint statement last month.U.S.-based shipping companies, however, have endorsed it. The Chamber of Shipping of America wants one global system, not multiple regional systems that could double charge vessels for their emissions depending on the route, said Kathy Metcalf, the chamber's president emeritus.In April, IMO member states agreed on the contents of a regulatory framework to impose a minimum fee for every ton of greenhouse gases emitted by ships above certain thresholds and set a marine fuel standard to phase in cleaner fuels. The IMO aims for consensus in decision-making but, in this case, had to vote. The United States was notably absent.Now nations have to decide if the regulations will enter into force in 2027. If agreed upon, the regulations will become mandatory for large oceangoing ships over 5,000 gross tonnage, which emit 85% of the total carbon emissions from international shipping, according to the IMO.If nations don't agree, shipping’s decarbonization will be further delayed and “the chance of the sector playing a proper and fair part in the fight to keep global heating below dangerous levels will almost certainly be lost,” said Delaine McCullough, president of the Clean Shipping Coalition and Ocean Conservancy shipping program director.The U.S. secretaries said in their statement that “fellow IMO members should be on notice” the U.S. will “not hesitate to retaliate or explore remedies for our citizens” if they do not support the United States, against this action. They said ships will have to pay fees for failing to meet “unattainable fuel standards and emissions targets,” driving up costs, and the fuel standards would “conveniently benefit China.” China is a leader in developing and producing cleaner fuels for shipping. While U.S. opposition and pressure cannot be taken for granted, it still appears as though a majority of countries currently support the regulations, said Faig Abbasov from Transport and Environment, a Brussels-based environmental nongovernmental organization. Abbasov said the deal reached in April was not ambitious enough, but this is an opportunity to launch the sector’s decarbonization and it can be strengthened.Shipping companies want the regulations because it gives them the certainty needed to confidently make investments in cleaner technologies, such as fuels that are alternatives to fossil fuels and the ships that run on them. In addition to the Getting to Zero Coalition, the International Chamber of Shipping, which represents over 80% of the world’s merchant fleet, is advocating for adoption when nations meet at IMO Headquarters in London from Oct. 14 to 17. AP Writer Sibi Arasu contributed to this report.The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See – Sept. 2025

Can We Feed 10 Billion People Without Destroying the Planet in the Process?

This story was originally published by Grist in partnership with the Chicago public radio station WBEZ. It is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. . When veteran journalist Michael Grunwald set out to write his third book, he was determined not to produce a “Debbie Downer.” And he hasn’t. That’s surprising considering his latest book, We’re Eating the […]

This story was originally published by Grist in partnership with the Chicago public radio station WBEZ. It is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration. . When veteran journalist Michael Grunwald set out to write his third book, he was determined not to produce a “Debbie Downer.” And he hasn’t. That’s surprising considering his latest book, We’re Eating the Earth: The Race to Fix Our Food System, wrestles with an increasingly thorny question: Can the world’s food systems be transformed in time to feed everyone without destroying the ecosystems that sustain us?  The math is brutal. With the global population projected to hit 10 billion by 2050, experts warn we will need to produce at least 50 percent more calories than we did in 2010. That surge in demand, he writes, is the equivalent of handing a dozen extra Olive Garden breadsticks to everyone alive—every single day.  “I’m an idealistic enough optimist to think that these smart people are going to figure out some cool shit and bring it to scale at some point.” But the food systems that produce, process, package, and distribute crops and meat will need to accommodate the staggering demand and are already a primary driver of the climate crisis. The industry is currently responsible for about a third of all greenhouse gas emissions. That footprint includes everything from methane in cows’ burps and decomposing food in landfills to nitrous oxide released by fertilizers.  To that end, Grunwald’s new book is a sustained search for the ideas that could kick off the next Green Revolution and provide new, climate-friendly ways of producing food. Many of these solutions, including using farmland to grow crops for biofuels instead of food, regenerative agriculture practices that restore carbon in soil, and replacing meat with fermented fungi, have fallen short, failed, or gone bankrupt. Still, Grunwald makes the case that it’s far too early to call it quits. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.  The book starts with your protagonist, Tim Searchinger, a longtime environmental lawyer on a crusade against ethanol, the biofuel made from crops like corn. What is it about ethanol that so effectively drives home agriculture’s climate problem? The sort of punch line is that ethanol and other biofuels are eating an area about the size of Texas, and agriculture is eating about 75 Texases worth of the Earth. But what Tim discovered was that the climate analysis of ethanol was ignoring land use. The problem is that when you grow fuel instead of food, you are going to have to replace the food by growing more somewhere else, and it’s probably not going to be a parking lot. It’s going to be a forest, or a wetland, or some other carbon-storing piece of nature. That had been forgotten because the climate analysis just treated land as if it were free. The real message of the book is that land is not free—there’s a lot of it on Earth, but not an infinite amount. So this gets to your idea that to feed our growing population, we’ll need to increase the yields of the farmland already in production or otherwise risk increasing our agricultural footprint. What does the drive to increase agricultural yield mean for the natural lands we have left? Two out of every five acres of the planet are cropped or grazed, while only 1 out of every 100 acres is covered by cities or suburbs. Our natural planet has become an agricultural planet, and we’re going to need 50 percent more food by 2050. We’re on track to eat a lot more meat, which is the most land-intensive form of food. So we are on track to deforest another dozen Californias’ worth of land by 2050, and we don’t have another dozen Californias’ worth of forest to spare. It’s a very simple idea—this notion that we need to make more food with less land—but it’s a really hard thing to do. We’re going to have to reduce our agricultural emissions 75 to 80 percent over the next 25 years, even as we produce more food. That means that we can’t keep doing the same thing and expecting different results. So far, the Trump administration has increased the renewable fuel mandate—a 20-year-old rule, which requires gasoline sold in the US to be blended with renewable fuels like ethanol—and worked to make it harder to put wind and solar on farmland. Are we digging the hole deeper?  The first thing the Trump administration has done is call for a massive expansion of soy biodiesel, as well as an expansion of sustainable aviation fuel, which is mostly made from corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture is on a campaign against the use of farmland for wind and solar. It’s incredibly short-sighted, because even though it is true that there is a cost to using land to make electricity rather than making food, it’s extraordinarily efficient compared to other forms of land use for energy, such as biofuels. Because we are so far away from figuring out the food and climate problem, one of the things we really need to do is accelerate the parts of the energy and climate problem that we have figured out—particularly solar, and wind as well. Those are really efficient and quite cheap ways of solving our energy and climate problems. Obviously, Trump’s going the opposite direction. You seem to have a real appreciation for the kind of output industrial agriculture can crank out. Where does Big Ag fit into the future of our food system? Look, they treat people badly. They treat animals horribly. They often make a really big mess. They’re responsible for a lot of water pollution and air pollution. They use too many antibiotics. They’re always fighting climate action. Their politics really suck, right? People hate factory farms, I get it. But factories are good at manufacturing a lot of stuff, and factory farms are good at manufacturing a lot of food, and agriculture’s number one job over the next 25 years is going to be manufacturing even more food than we’ve made over the last 12,000. I don’t say that these industrial approaches are necessarily the only way to get high yields. I went to Brazil, and I saw how some ranches there are using some regenerative practices that are helping them get really kick-ass yields—and if they’re five times as productive as a degraded ranch, then they’re using only one-fifth as much of the Amazon. We’re going to need to make even more food with even less land and hopefully less mess as well. You explore lots of big climate solutions, everything from plans to grow food indoors in vertical farms to meat alternatives made from fermented fungi. Each has hit a wall. Do you see this as a failure of political will or that people’s food preferences and personal diets are harder to change than previously imagined?  I wrote about two dozen really promising solutions, and none of them has panned out yet. That is a bummer. I say that kind of laughing; I do believe that human beings kind of suck at making sacrifices for the good of the planet, but we’re really good at inventing stuff. And some of these solutions, whether it’s alternative fertilizers made from gene-edited microbes, [using] alternative pesticides made from using the mRNA technology behind the COVID-19 vaccine to constipate beetles to death, or these guys who are trying to use artificial intelligence and supercomputers and genomics to reinvent photosynthesis, there are really smart people working on this stuff. One thing you could also say is that a lot of government money went into helping to solve the energy problem, and you don’t see that right now in food. But these are solvable problems, and there are a lot of people smarter than me who think that there are technological solutions that can really move the needle. I’m an honest enough reporter to have to point out that none of these really has any traction yet, but I’m an idealistic enough optimist to think that these smart people are going to figure out some cool shit and bring it to scale at some point.

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