Warm Oceans Strengthened Hurricane Francine and Could Power More Fall Storms

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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Warm ocean water is essential for forming and strengthening hurricanes. Heat helps the water evaporate faster, fueling the storm and producing more rainfall. Mid-September is typically the peak of hurricane season and Francine moved through a part of the ocean that held an exceptional amount of energy. As of Wednesday afternoon, Francine had strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of nearly 100 mph (161 kph). Hear's how high Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are effecting Francine and the hurricane season:The Gulf of Mexico doesn't need record setting temperatures to form hurricanes this time of year. Still, Francine traveled through water that at the surface, was somewhat hotter than average, but not record setting. The storm passed over a patch that was roughly 86 to 88 degrees (30 to 31 Celsius).What's exceptional is the amount of heat deeper down. Storms churn up the ocean, bringing to the surface cooler water.Recently, however, that deeper layer was record-setting. It held more heat than at any point in the last decade, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. “This past week was pretty exceptional,” he said.And Francine passed over a patch of water, called an eddy, that was especially hot. Near the coast, however, the water is a bit cooler than average, meaning there's less energy to strengthen the storm.“It's window for really intensifying is closed, so that's good news,” he said.Warmer water lower down matters most for large, strong storms that move slowly — that's the recipe for churning up a bunch of deeper water. “On the opposite end of that, a weaker, smaller, quicker moving storm will hardly churn up the ocean at all," said McNoldy. For these storms, the temperature of deeper water matters less.Francine isn't extremely strong, so the energy stored deeper in the Gulf of Mexico didn't matter quite as much, according to McNoldy.Still, conditions were favorable enough for the storm to rapidly intensify. On Tuesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Francine had sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). A day later it's nearly 100 mph (161 kph). This type of quick change can make storms more dangerous, fast, surprising those in their path.“Our model projections are telling us this is the type of thing that should become much more common as we go forward into the 21st century, as global warming continues to increase,” according to Gabriel Vecchi, a hurricane researcher at Princeton University who also directs its High Meadows Environmental Institute.But there's other factors reducing Hurricane Francine's power, according to Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. Nearby dry air has weakened its growth and as the storm gets closer to the coast, winds will disrupt the shape of the hurricane, further reducing its power.“Once it gets inland, it'll weaken quickly, but it's going to do a lot of damage along the way,” said Smerbeck.WHAT ABOUT LONG-TERM TRENDS?Federal forecasters predicted an intense hurricane season. And a big storm came historically early. Hurricane Beryl formed in late June and reached Category 5. But at the mid-point of the season, activity has been pretty average, with just six named storms this Atlantic Hurricane season. August was especially quiet, according to Robert West, a hurricane and climate researcher with the University of Miami and affiliated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.But the Atlantic Coast is far from out of the woods.“It seems like the tropics are kind of waking up a little bit,” West said.The warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico will help, continuing to provide fuel.There are long-term trends at play, too. Climate change is heating up oceans around the world, although experts say it is difficult to connect specific hurricane seasons or storms to a warming planet, West said.And there are global weather patterns. Federal forecasters this summer said La Nina could develop. That's where parts of the Pacific Ocean have cooler water surface temperatures. When that happens, it can reduce winds that weaken hurricanes. “This could be the beginning of a busy period here,” said Smerbeck. The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environmentCopyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See - July 2024

Hurricane Francine made landfall Wednesday

Warm ocean water is essential for forming and strengthening hurricanes. Heat helps the water evaporate faster, fueling the storm and producing more rainfall.

Mid-September is typically the peak of hurricane season and Francine moved through a part of the ocean that held an exceptional amount of energy.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Francine had strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of nearly 100 mph (161 kph).

Hear's how high Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are effecting Francine and the hurricane season:

The Gulf of Mexico doesn't need record setting temperatures to form hurricanes this time of year. Still, Francine traveled through water that at the surface, was somewhat hotter than average, but not record setting. The storm passed over a patch that was roughly 86 to 88 degrees (30 to 31 Celsius).

What's exceptional is the amount of heat deeper down. Storms churn up the ocean, bringing to the surface cooler water.

Recently, however, that deeper layer was record-setting. It held more heat than at any point in the last decade, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.

“This past week was pretty exceptional,” he said.

And Francine passed over a patch of water, called an eddy, that was especially hot.

Near the coast, however, the water is a bit cooler than average, meaning there's less energy to strengthen the storm.

“It's window for really intensifying is closed, so that's good news,” he said.

Warmer water lower down matters most for large, strong storms that move slowly — that's the recipe for churning up a bunch of deeper water.

“On the opposite end of that, a weaker, smaller, quicker moving storm will hardly churn up the ocean at all," said McNoldy. For these storms, the temperature of deeper water matters less.

Francine isn't extremely strong, so the energy stored deeper in the Gulf of Mexico didn't matter quite as much, according to McNoldy.

Still, conditions were favorable enough for the storm to rapidly intensify. On Tuesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Francine had sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). A day later it's nearly 100 mph (161 kph). This type of quick change can make storms more dangerous, fast, surprising those in their path.

“Our model projections are telling us this is the type of thing that should become much more common as we go forward into the 21st century, as global warming continues to increase,” according to Gabriel Vecchi, a hurricane researcher at Princeton University who also directs its High Meadows Environmental Institute.

But there's other factors reducing Hurricane Francine's power, according to Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. Nearby dry air has weakened its growth and as the storm gets closer to the coast, winds will disrupt the shape of the hurricane, further reducing its power.

“Once it gets inland, it'll weaken quickly, but it's going to do a lot of damage along the way,” said Smerbeck.

WHAT ABOUT LONG-TERM TRENDS?

Federal forecasters predicted an intense hurricane season. And a big storm came historically early. Hurricane Beryl formed in late June and reached Category 5.

But at the mid-point of the season, activity has been pretty average, with just six named storms this Atlantic Hurricane season. August was especially quiet, according to Robert West, a hurricane and climate researcher with the University of Miami and affiliated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

But the Atlantic Coast is far from out of the woods.

“It seems like the tropics are kind of waking up a little bit,” West said.

The warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico will help, continuing to provide fuel.

There are long-term trends at play, too. Climate change is heating up oceans around the world, although experts say it is difficult to connect specific hurricane seasons or storms to a warming planet, West said.

And there are global weather patterns. Federal forecasters this summer said La Nina could develop. That's where parts of the Pacific Ocean have cooler water surface temperatures. When that happens, it can reduce winds that weaken hurricanes.

“This could be the beginning of a busy period here,” said Smerbeck.

The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Photos You Should See - July 2024

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Virginia court delays state’s return to carbon market as Youngkin fights ruling

A Virginia judge has paused the state’s court-ordered return to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) while Gov. Glenn Youngkin appeals the decision, delaying millions in climate and flood-preparedness funding.Charles Paullin reports for Inside Climate News.In short:A Floyd County judge ruled Virginia does not have to rejoin RGGI while Youngkin's appeal proceeds, extending the legal battle potentially for years.RGGI had generated about $830 million for Virginia since 2021, with funds directed toward energy efficiency and flood preparedness programs.Environmental groups argue Youngkin's withdrawal was illegal and has already led to increased emissions and lost funding for clean energy initiatives.Key quote:“Unfortunately, we also know that Helene will not be the last disaster we face in Virginia.”— Emily Steinhilber, Environmental Defense FundWhy this matters:RGGI is a multi-state effort to cut carbon emissions by requiring power producers to buy pollution allowances, with proceeds funding climate resilience projects. Virginia’s withdrawal has already led to higher emissions and halted funding for flood preparedness. With severe weather becoming more frequent, the loss of these funds could leave vulnerable communities unprotected. Youngkin’s opposition — calling RGGI a "tax" — puts the program’s future at risk, especially as the state’s leadership may change following upcoming elections.Related: Virginia Democrats push to rejoin carbon market as Youngkin seeks disaster relief fund

A Virginia judge has paused the state’s court-ordered return to the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) while Gov. Glenn Youngkin appeals the decision, delaying millions in climate and flood-preparedness funding.Charles Paullin reports for Inside Climate News.In short:A Floyd County judge ruled Virginia does not have to rejoin RGGI while Youngkin's appeal proceeds, extending the legal battle potentially for years.RGGI had generated about $830 million for Virginia since 2021, with funds directed toward energy efficiency and flood preparedness programs.Environmental groups argue Youngkin's withdrawal was illegal and has already led to increased emissions and lost funding for clean energy initiatives.Key quote:“Unfortunately, we also know that Helene will not be the last disaster we face in Virginia.”— Emily Steinhilber, Environmental Defense FundWhy this matters:RGGI is a multi-state effort to cut carbon emissions by requiring power producers to buy pollution allowances, with proceeds funding climate resilience projects. Virginia’s withdrawal has already led to higher emissions and halted funding for flood preparedness. With severe weather becoming more frequent, the loss of these funds could leave vulnerable communities unprotected. Youngkin’s opposition — calling RGGI a "tax" — puts the program’s future at risk, especially as the state’s leadership may change following upcoming elections.Related: Virginia Democrats push to rejoin carbon market as Youngkin seeks disaster relief fund

Olympics-Olympians Make Climate Plea to IOC Presidential Candidates

By Nick MulvenneySYDNEY (Reuters) - More than 400 Olympians from nearly 90 countries around the world have joined in a call for the winner of next...

SYDNEY (Reuters) - More than 400 Olympians from nearly 90 countries around the world have joined in a call for the winner of next week's International Olympic Committee presidential election to make climate their top priority.The signatories to an open letter calling for IOC action on climate change range from Australia's most decorated Olympian, swimmer Emma McKeon, to Cyrille Tchatchet II, a weightlifter who represented the refugee team at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021."To the incoming President, we ask that over the coming years and the course of your presidency one issue be above all others: the care of our planet," the letter read."Rising temperatures and extreme weather are already disrupting competition schedules, putting iconic venues at risk and affecting the health of athletes and fans."Extreme heat is raising real concerns about whether Summer Games can be held safely in future years, and Winter Games are becoming harder to organise with reliable snow and ice conditions diminishing annually."Seven candidates are vying to replace Thomas Bach as president in a ballot of IOC members at Costa Navarino, Greece, on March 20.The Olympians called for an early meeting with the successful candidate after the election to discuss environmental concerns, and said the IOC must strengthen existing commitments on the cutting of carbon emissions.They also want the IOC to advocate for "broader environmental action", champion sustainable practices with cities hosting Olympics, and "set a standard" on sponsorship deals with companies which have a poor pollution records.Sailor Hannah Mills was one of the British Olympians who initiated the letter and she said the recent wildfires in Los Angeles, the venue for the 2028 Summer Olympics, had illustrated that climate change was an immediate threat."I'm not sure we've ever seen so many athletes from around the world speak with one voice," said the twice Olympic champion, who is an IOC sustainability ambassador."The terrible LA wildfires couldn't have been clearer: the time is now to set a course for a safe, bright future."The Olympics has held and fulfilled the dreams of so many over its history but I can't have any bigger dream than a future in which my children can thrive."The IOC's existing "reduce, compensate, influence" climate commitment includes a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, compensating more than 100% of the residual emissions and encourages stakeholders and fans to act against climate change.World Athletics chief Sebastian Coe, multiple Olympic swimming champion Kirsty Coventry, who is Zimbabwe's sports minister, and IOC vice president Juan Antonio Samaranch are among the favourites to succeed Bach.International cycling chief David Lappartient, Prince Feisal Al Hussein of Jordan, International Gymnastics Federation head Morinari Watanabe and Johan Eliasch, who heads the International Ski Federation, complete the list of candidates.Prince Feisal said he welcomed the "powerful message from Olympians around the world", while Coe, who has been vocal on the impact of climate change on athletics, said he would be delighted to meet the athlete advocates to "share ideas and initiatives".(Reporting by Nick Mulvenney, additional reporting by Iain Axon in London, editing by Peter Rutherford)Copyright 2025 Thomson Reuters.Photos You Should See - Feb. 2025

Oregon will continue ‘climate action’ despite EPA rollbacks, governor says

Oregon is one of a number of states that regulates greenhouse gas emissions and provides incentives for renewable energy.

Gov. Tina Kotek said on Thursday that her administration will continue to prioritize policies targeting climate-warming pollution, following an announcement by the head of the Environmental Protection Agency that it will repeal dozens of pollution limits and the legal basis for regulating greenhouse gases.“There is no turning back,” Kotek said in a statement. “I guarantee that climate action will continue in Oregon, and that we will continue developing innovative solutions to confront the climate crisis and build a brighter future.”The head of the Environmental Protection Agency announced a series of actions Wednesday to roll back landmark environmental regulations, including rules on pollution from coal-fired power plants, climate change and electric vehicles.EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called it the “most consequential day of deregulation in American history.”Oregon is one of a number of states that regulates greenhouse gas emissions and provides incentives for renewable energy. “The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was created to protect human health and the environment,” Kotek said, and the Trump administration’s decision to roll back “landmark environmental regulations will do exactly the opposite.” “Combating climate change requires collaboration and long-term work – not deregulating polluters – to ensure a healthy planet for future generations."State Senate Republicans praised the EPA’s action and fired back at Kotek on Thursday.“While Governor Kotek is focused on political posturing, working Oregonians are struggling to afford the cost of living,” Senate Republican Leader Daniel Bonham, R-The Dalles, said in a statement. “The Governor’s refusal to acknowledge the economic impact of her climate agenda shows just how out of touch she is with the challenges everyday Oregonians face.”The Associated Press contributed to this report.— Hillary Borrud

Trump’s new attack on the climate, briefly explained

This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here. Welcome to the Logoff: Today I’m focusing on the Trump administration’s effort to dismantle a slew of environmental regulations, a development only relevant to people who breathe air or are […]

A coal-fired power plant in West Virginia. | Visions of America/Joseph Sohm/Universal Images Group via Getty Images<br> This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here. Welcome to the Logoff: Today I’m focusing on the Trump administration’s effort to dismantle a slew of environmental regulations, a development only relevant to people who breathe air or are concerned about humanity’s future. What’s the latest? The Environmental Protection Agency announced Wednesday evening that it was starting the process of unwinding 31 regulations aimed at protecting air quality, water quality, and the climate. This includes rules on pollution (mercury, soot, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases) from many sources, including power plants, automobiles, and oil and gas refineries.  What about climate rules? Perhaps the most significant regulation on the chopping block is the EPA’s 2009 conclusion that greenhouse gases threaten public health and must be regulated. It’s the underpinning of the most important climate regulations, including rules aimed at dramatically lowering greenhouse gas emissions from the energy and transportation sectors. Can the administration do this? This is the start of a lengthy process of rewriting federal rules. Environmental groups are also planning to sue, which will tie up these rule changes in court for months or even years, my colleague Umair Irfan explains. Why is the administration doing this? EPA administrator Lee Zeldin framed the changes around “unleashing American energy” (in this case, he’s primarily talking about coal, oil, and natural gas) and “lowering the cost of living.” The EPA’s mandate, the New York Times notes, is to protect the environment and public health. What’s the big picture? These regulations — alongside financial support for clean energy development — are the backbone of federal efforts to address climate change, an undeniably real environmental problem that’s on track to deeply degrade the planet’s capacity to host human life. Federal policy is not the sole driver of our efforts to address climate change, as technological breakthroughs, market forces, and state rules all play a role. But if the EPA is successful in finalizing the rule changes it’s proposing, the administration will have succeeded in severely undercutting the nation’s ability to hit its climate goals. And with that, time to log off: I got a lot of great emails about the Good Robot podcast on artificial intelligence that I shared yesterday, so if you missed it, it’s available here on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and elsewhere. If you’re looking for something a touch more outdoorsy, I had a lot of fun with this National Park Service tool that tells you about the parks nearest you. It’s good inspiration for a future trip — or maybe even a weekend hike. Thanks, as always, for reading.

Farmers sue Trump administration over halted IRA grants

Farmers and environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over its decision to pause grants that are part of the Democrats’ climate, tax and healthcare law. They are challenging the freezing of grants including those that are part of a $300 million program to help farmers install renewable energy or energy efficiency upgrades. The lawsuit...

Farmers and environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over its decision to pause grants that are part of the Democrats’ climate, tax and healthcare law. They are challenging the freezing of grants including those that are part of a $300 million program to help farmers install renewable energy or energy efficiency upgrades.  The lawsuit says that the farmers have already made purchases and entered into contracts with installers related to the program – money they won’t be able to get back.  Two of the plaintiffs, Butterbee Farm and One Acre Farm, have fully finished solar projects and now will have to pay tens of thousands of dollars that had previously been promised by the government, according to their suit.  “Such a substantial, unexpected financial burden could put Plaintiffs’ farms’ financial futures at risk,” the suit said.  In January, the White House directed federal agencies to pause funds coming from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – legislation that provided billions of dollars in subsidies for climate-friendly projects.  In the wake of the spending freeze, a broad range of programs and projects have been held up, leaving grantees without access to federal dollars. 

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