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Warm Oceans Strengthened Hurricane Francine and Could Power More Fall Storms

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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Warm ocean water is essential for forming and strengthening hurricanes. Heat helps the water evaporate faster, fueling the storm and producing more rainfall. Mid-September is typically the peak of hurricane season and Francine moved through a part of the ocean that held an exceptional amount of energy. As of Wednesday afternoon, Francine had strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of nearly 100 mph (161 kph). Hear's how high Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are effecting Francine and the hurricane season:The Gulf of Mexico doesn't need record setting temperatures to form hurricanes this time of year. Still, Francine traveled through water that at the surface, was somewhat hotter than average, but not record setting. The storm passed over a patch that was roughly 86 to 88 degrees (30 to 31 Celsius).What's exceptional is the amount of heat deeper down. Storms churn up the ocean, bringing to the surface cooler water.Recently, however, that deeper layer was record-setting. It held more heat than at any point in the last decade, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. “This past week was pretty exceptional,” he said.And Francine passed over a patch of water, called an eddy, that was especially hot. Near the coast, however, the water is a bit cooler than average, meaning there's less energy to strengthen the storm.“It's window for really intensifying is closed, so that's good news,” he said.Warmer water lower down matters most for large, strong storms that move slowly — that's the recipe for churning up a bunch of deeper water. “On the opposite end of that, a weaker, smaller, quicker moving storm will hardly churn up the ocean at all," said McNoldy. For these storms, the temperature of deeper water matters less.Francine isn't extremely strong, so the energy stored deeper in the Gulf of Mexico didn't matter quite as much, according to McNoldy.Still, conditions were favorable enough for the storm to rapidly intensify. On Tuesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Francine had sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). A day later it's nearly 100 mph (161 kph). This type of quick change can make storms more dangerous, fast, surprising those in their path.“Our model projections are telling us this is the type of thing that should become much more common as we go forward into the 21st century, as global warming continues to increase,” according to Gabriel Vecchi, a hurricane researcher at Princeton University who also directs its High Meadows Environmental Institute.But there's other factors reducing Hurricane Francine's power, according to Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. Nearby dry air has weakened its growth and as the storm gets closer to the coast, winds will disrupt the shape of the hurricane, further reducing its power.“Once it gets inland, it'll weaken quickly, but it's going to do a lot of damage along the way,” said Smerbeck.WHAT ABOUT LONG-TERM TRENDS?Federal forecasters predicted an intense hurricane season. And a big storm came historically early. Hurricane Beryl formed in late June and reached Category 5. But at the mid-point of the season, activity has been pretty average, with just six named storms this Atlantic Hurricane season. August was especially quiet, according to Robert West, a hurricane and climate researcher with the University of Miami and affiliated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.But the Atlantic Coast is far from out of the woods.“It seems like the tropics are kind of waking up a little bit,” West said.The warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico will help, continuing to provide fuel.There are long-term trends at play, too. Climate change is heating up oceans around the world, although experts say it is difficult to connect specific hurricane seasons or storms to a warming planet, West said.And there are global weather patterns. Federal forecasters this summer said La Nina could develop. That's where parts of the Pacific Ocean have cooler water surface temperatures. When that happens, it can reduce winds that weaken hurricanes. “This could be the beginning of a busy period here,” said Smerbeck. The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environmentCopyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See - July 2024

Hurricane Francine made landfall Wednesday

Warm ocean water is essential for forming and strengthening hurricanes. Heat helps the water evaporate faster, fueling the storm and producing more rainfall.

Mid-September is typically the peak of hurricane season and Francine moved through a part of the ocean that held an exceptional amount of energy.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Francine had strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of nearly 100 mph (161 kph).

Hear's how high Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are effecting Francine and the hurricane season:

The Gulf of Mexico doesn't need record setting temperatures to form hurricanes this time of year. Still, Francine traveled through water that at the surface, was somewhat hotter than average, but not record setting. The storm passed over a patch that was roughly 86 to 88 degrees (30 to 31 Celsius).

What's exceptional is the amount of heat deeper down. Storms churn up the ocean, bringing to the surface cooler water.

Recently, however, that deeper layer was record-setting. It held more heat than at any point in the last decade, according to Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science.

“This past week was pretty exceptional,” he said.

And Francine passed over a patch of water, called an eddy, that was especially hot.

Near the coast, however, the water is a bit cooler than average, meaning there's less energy to strengthen the storm.

“It's window for really intensifying is closed, so that's good news,” he said.

Warmer water lower down matters most for large, strong storms that move slowly — that's the recipe for churning up a bunch of deeper water.

“On the opposite end of that, a weaker, smaller, quicker moving storm will hardly churn up the ocean at all," said McNoldy. For these storms, the temperature of deeper water matters less.

Francine isn't extremely strong, so the energy stored deeper in the Gulf of Mexico didn't matter quite as much, according to McNoldy.

Still, conditions were favorable enough for the storm to rapidly intensify. On Tuesday afternoon, Tropical Storm Francine had sustained winds of 65 mph (105 kph). A day later it's nearly 100 mph (161 kph). This type of quick change can make storms more dangerous, fast, surprising those in their path.

“Our model projections are telling us this is the type of thing that should become much more common as we go forward into the 21st century, as global warming continues to increase,” according to Gabriel Vecchi, a hurricane researcher at Princeton University who also directs its High Meadows Environmental Institute.

But there's other factors reducing Hurricane Francine's power, according to Bob Smerbeck, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. Nearby dry air has weakened its growth and as the storm gets closer to the coast, winds will disrupt the shape of the hurricane, further reducing its power.

“Once it gets inland, it'll weaken quickly, but it's going to do a lot of damage along the way,” said Smerbeck.

WHAT ABOUT LONG-TERM TRENDS?

Federal forecasters predicted an intense hurricane season. And a big storm came historically early. Hurricane Beryl formed in late June and reached Category 5.

But at the mid-point of the season, activity has been pretty average, with just six named storms this Atlantic Hurricane season. August was especially quiet, according to Robert West, a hurricane and climate researcher with the University of Miami and affiliated with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

But the Atlantic Coast is far from out of the woods.

“It seems like the tropics are kind of waking up a little bit,” West said.

The warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico will help, continuing to provide fuel.

There are long-term trends at play, too. Climate change is heating up oceans around the world, although experts say it is difficult to connect specific hurricane seasons or storms to a warming planet, West said.

And there are global weather patterns. Federal forecasters this summer said La Nina could develop. That's where parts of the Pacific Ocean have cooler water surface temperatures. When that happens, it can reduce winds that weaken hurricanes.

“This could be the beginning of a busy period here,” said Smerbeck.

The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Photos You Should See - July 2024

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Trump’s new attack on the climate, briefly explained

This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here. Welcome to the Logoff: Today I’m focusing on the Trump administration’s effort to dismantle a slew of environmental regulations, a development only relevant to people who breathe air or are […]

A coal-fired power plant in West Virginia. | Visions of America/Joseph Sohm/Universal Images Group via Getty Images<br> This story appeared in The Logoff, a daily newsletter that helps you stay informed about the Trump administration without letting political news take over your life. Subscribe here. Welcome to the Logoff: Today I’m focusing on the Trump administration’s effort to dismantle a slew of environmental regulations, a development only relevant to people who breathe air or are concerned about humanity’s future. What’s the latest? The Environmental Protection Agency announced Wednesday evening that it was starting the process of unwinding 31 regulations aimed at protecting air quality, water quality, and the climate. This includes rules on pollution (mercury, soot, carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases) from many sources, including power plants, automobiles, and oil and gas refineries.  What about climate rules? Perhaps the most significant regulation on the chopping block is the EPA’s 2009 conclusion that greenhouse gases threaten public health and must be regulated. It’s the underpinning of the most important climate regulations, including rules aimed at dramatically lowering greenhouse gas emissions from the energy and transportation sectors. Can the administration do this? This is the start of a lengthy process of rewriting federal rules. Environmental groups are also planning to sue, which will tie up these rule changes in court for months or even years, my colleague Umair Irfan explains. Why is the administration doing this? EPA administrator Lee Zeldin framed the changes around “unleashing American energy” (in this case, he’s primarily talking about coal, oil, and natural gas) and “lowering the cost of living.” The EPA’s mandate, the New York Times notes, is to protect the environment and public health. What’s the big picture? These regulations — alongside financial support for clean energy development — are the backbone of federal efforts to address climate change, an undeniably real environmental problem that’s on track to deeply degrade the planet’s capacity to host human life. Federal policy is not the sole driver of our efforts to address climate change, as technological breakthroughs, market forces, and state rules all play a role. But if the EPA is successful in finalizing the rule changes it’s proposing, the administration will have succeeded in severely undercutting the nation’s ability to hit its climate goals. And with that, time to log off: I got a lot of great emails about the Good Robot podcast on artificial intelligence that I shared yesterday, so if you missed it, it’s available here on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and elsewhere. If you’re looking for something a touch more outdoorsy, I had a lot of fun with this National Park Service tool that tells you about the parks nearest you. It’s good inspiration for a future trip — or maybe even a weekend hike. Thanks, as always, for reading.

Farmers sue Trump administration over halted IRA grants

Farmers and environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over its decision to pause grants that are part of the Democrats’ climate, tax and healthcare law. They are challenging the freezing of grants including those that are part of a $300 million program to help farmers install renewable energy or energy efficiency upgrades. The lawsuit...

Farmers and environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over its decision to pause grants that are part of the Democrats’ climate, tax and healthcare law. They are challenging the freezing of grants including those that are part of a $300 million program to help farmers install renewable energy or energy efficiency upgrades.  The lawsuit says that the farmers have already made purchases and entered into contracts with installers related to the program – money they won’t be able to get back.  Two of the plaintiffs, Butterbee Farm and One Acre Farm, have fully finished solar projects and now will have to pay tens of thousands of dollars that had previously been promised by the government, according to their suit.  “Such a substantial, unexpected financial burden could put Plaintiffs’ farms’ financial futures at risk,” the suit said.  In January, the White House directed federal agencies to pause funds coming from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) – legislation that provided billions of dollars in subsidies for climate-friendly projects.  In the wake of the spending freeze, a broad range of programs and projects have been held up, leaving grantees without access to federal dollars. 

A Breakdown of Major EPA Deregulatory Moves Around Water, Air, Climate

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin on Wednesday announced nearly three dozen deregulatory moves that he said would spur the U.S. economy by rolling back rules that have unfairly burdened industry

Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin on Wednesday announced nearly three dozen deregulatory moves that he said would spur the U.S. economy by rolling back rules that have unfairly burdened industry. Many of the moves would affect landmark regulations aimed at protecting clean air and water.Here's a look at some of the 31 regulatory changes Zeldin announced: Reconsider power plant emissions standards The Biden administration set limits on planet-warming emissions from existing gas and coal-fired power plants – a major step in the administration’s effort to reduce greenhouse gases from the heavily polluting energy sector. Trump has long opposed such tough, climate-friendly limits and has instead promoted oil and gas development. Zeldin said the agency would reconsider the Biden administration standards to avoid constraining energy production. Reconsider toxic emission limits on power plants Coal plants emit toxic metals like mercury and the Biden administration issued a rule to severely limit those pollutants. Officials at the time said technology had progressed enough for these plants to do better. The EPA on Wednesday said nearly two dozen states had sued, arguing the rule was costly and a major burden, especially to coal plants. They also considering offering industry a two-year compliance extension while officials reconsider the rule. Reconsider wastewater rules for coal and other power plants Hazardous metals like mercury and arsenic end up in the wastewater of steam-powered electric generating power plants like coal. These can have serious health effects including increasing cancer rates and lowering childhood IQ scores. The Biden administration tightened regulations of this wastewater. The EPA said it will revisit those “stringent” rules that are costly to industry and therefore may raise residential energy bills. New uses for oil and gas wastewater Currently, treated wastewater generated from oil and gas drilling can be used in limited ways in certain western lands, such as for agriculture. Environmentalists say there can be a broad range of contaminants in the wastewater, some of which might not be known. The EPA said it will reconsider those rules and look at how the treated water could be used for other purposes like cooling data centers, fighting fires and other ecological needs. They say the current rules are costly, old and don’t reflect the capabilities of modern treatment technologies. ​​Reconsider petrochemical emergency planning The Biden administration tightened safeguards against accidents for industrial and chemical plants that millions of people live near. The agency’s risk management program added planning and reporting requirements for facilities and forced some to implement new safeguards. Accidents at these plants can be severe – a 2019 explosion at a Texas facility, for example, forced tens of thousands to evacuate, for example. Industry associations have criticized parts of the rule, such as requirements to publicly report sensitive information.Zeldin said Biden administration officials “ignored recommendations from national security experts on how their rule makes chemical and other sensitive facilities in America more vulnerable to attack.” The EPA is reconsidering the rule. Reconsidering greenhouse gas reporting requirements The EPA said it was reconsidering its mandatory greenhouse gas reporting program, which requires thousands of major industrial polluters to tell the agency about its emissions. Zeldin said the “bureaucratic government program” costs hundreds of millions of dollars and doesn’t help air quality. Until now, the EPA said the data helped businesses compare their emissions to competitors and find opportunities to reduce them and lower costs. Reconsider light-duty, medium-duty, and heavy-duty vehicle regulations Zeldin vowed to review his agency’s emissions standards for cars and trucks, calling the tightened emissions rules the “foundation for the Biden-Harris electric vehicle mandate.” Nothing the Biden administration implemented required automakers to make and sell EVs or for consumers to buy them. Loosening standards would allow vehicles to emit more planet-warming greenhouse gases, but many automakers have already been investing in making their vehicles more efficient. Reconsider 2009 Endangerment Finding and regulations that rely on it The scientific finding, under the 2009 Clean Air Act, determined that planet-warming greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare. It has been at the core of the nation’s action against climate change. Trump had already directed the EPA to consider the finding’s “legality” in an executive order. Experts say the impacts of climate change on human health and the environment are already clear, and that upending the finding would be devastating. Reconsideration of technology transition rule This program enforced strict rules to reduce the use of hydrofluorocarbons, highly potent and planet-warming greenhouse gases used in refrigerators, air conditioners, heat pumps and more. HFCs, as they are known, are thousands of times more powerful than carbon dioxide and leak through equipment that uses compressed refrigerants. Dozens of countries around the globe have pledged to slash their use and production of the chemicals. Ending ‘Good Neighbor Plan’ This rule was intended to limit air pollution by restricting power plant smokestack emissions, and those from other industrial sites, across 11 states. Eliminating it would especially impact downwind neighborhoods that are burdened by pollution from ground-level ozone, or smog, that is out of their control. However, the Supreme Court had already put a hold on the rule last summer, ruling that states challenging it were likely to prevail. Reconstitute Science Advisory Board and Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee These seats have long been politicized given how influential they can be in setting national environmental policy. The board reviews “the quality and relevance of the scientific and technical information being used by the EPA or proposed as the basis for Agency regulations” and agency research programs. Congress directed the agency to establish the board to provide the Administrator science advice in 1978. The committee can give “independent advice” to the agency’s Administrator specific to the nation’s Ambient Air Quality Standards. Reconsider Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards Power plants and industrial facilities release particulate matter, or soot, that can easily pass through a person’s lungs and into their bloodstream. Last year, the Biden administration tightened standards regulating soot in response to scientific research indicating existing regulations were insufficient. At the time, the EPA estimated its stronger regulations would save thousands of lives and prevent hundreds of thousands of cases of asthma and lost workdays annually. The Trump administration’s EPA says these regulations are “a major obstacle” for companies and that the U.S. has low levels of soot. Reconsider national emission standards for air pollutants for American energy and manufacturing These EPA standards apply to pollutants known or suspected to cause cancer, birth defects or other serious health problems, such as asbestos and mercury. Industrial facilities are required to follow strict standards to monitor, control and limit the amount of these chemicals they release into the air. Restructure the Regional Haze Program For decades, this EPA program has required states to reduce pollution that threatens scenic views in more than 150 national parks and wilderness areas, including in the Grand Canyon and Yellowstone. Zeldin said that the U.S. has made strides in improving visibility in national parks and that the program is being used as justification for shutting down industrial facilities and threatening affordable energy. Overhauling ‘Social Cost of Carbon’ The social cost of carbon is an EPA tool to weigh the economic costs and benefits of regulating polluting industries by putting a price tag on climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions – set at $190 per ton under the Biden administration’s EPA. That calculation is used in cost-benefit analyses, and was intended to account for greenhouse gas emissions’ impacts including natural disasters, crop damage, health problems and sea-level rise. Under the first Trump administration, carbon was pegged at around $5 per ton. An executive order Trump signed on his first day in office directs the EPA to consider eliminating this calculation entirely to advance his “Unleashing American Energy” policy. Prioritizing coal ash program to expedite state permit reviews and update regulations After coal is burned, ash filled with heavy pollutants including arsenic, lead and mercury is left behind and typically stored in giant pits under federal regulation. The EPA says it is now seeking to rapidly put regulation “more fully into state hands,” which environmental groups fear could lead to weaker standards. Last year, the Biden administration closed a gap that had allowed companies to avoid responsibility for cleaning up inactive coal ash pits – a policy that environmental groups say could now be repealed.The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org. Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See - Feb. 2025

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