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Loss of bats to lethal fungus linked to 1,300 child deaths in US, study says

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Thursday, September 5, 2024

In 2006, a deadly fungus started killing bat colonies across the United States. Now, an environmental economist has linked their loss to the deaths of more than 1,300 children.The study, published in Science on Thursday, found that farmers dramatically increased pesticide use after the bat die-offs, which was in turn linked to an average infant mortality increase of nearly 8%. Unusually, the research suggests a causative link between human and bat wellbeing.“That’s just quite rare – to get good, empirical, grounded estimates of how much value the species is providing,” said environmental economist Charles Taylor from the Harvard Kennedy School, who was not involved in the study. “Putting actual numbers to it in a credible way is tough.”The crisis for bat colonies began in 2006, when a fungus called Pseudogymnoascus destructans hitchhiked from Europe to the US. P destructans grows on hibernating bats in winter, sprouting as white fuzz on their noses. It can extinguish a bat colony in as little as five years.When Eyal Frank, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, learned about the disease, called white-nose syndrome, he realised it provided a perfect natural experiment to demonstrate the value of a bat. Bats eat 40% or more of their bodyweight in insects every night, including many crop pests. What would their disappearance mean?In infected areas, he found, farmers compensated for the loss of bats by significantly increasing their use of insecticides – by 31.1% on average.Next, Frank looked at infant mortality – a metric commonly used to judge the impact of environmental toxins. Infected counties had an infant death rate 7.9% higher, on average, than counties with healthy bats, despite pesticide use being within regulatory limits. That equates to 1,334 extra infant deaths.A brown bat with white-nose syndrome caused by the Pseudogymnoascus destructans fungus in New York. Photograph: Ryan von Linden/APFrank tested other factors that might plausibly explain the rise in deaths: unemployment, the opioid epidemic, the weather, differences among mothers, or the introduction of genetically modified crops, but none explained the increase in pesticide use or the rise in infant deaths. He spent a year “kicking the tyres on the study”, and the results held. It provided “compelling evidence”, he said, “that farmers did respond to the decline in insect-eating bats, and that response had an adverse health impact on human infants”.It is unusual for a study of this type to suggest causation, not just correlation, said Taylor.“A lot of papers that try to link pesticides to outcomes are correlational in nature,” said Taylor. “People who are exposed to more pesticides, for example, might have other risk factors – like, farm workers are exposed to a whole host of other socioeconomic risks that could explain why there might be different health outcomes.”White-nose syndrome, however, essentially creates a randomised controlled trial: because the spread of white-nose syndrome was closely monitored, Frank could compare counties that had lost their bats with those the disease had not yet reached. “The bat disease wasn’t expected, and it shouldn’t have preferentially targeted certain groups over others,” Taylor said.A number of recent studies have shown how collapsing populations of wildlife can have unexpected knock-on effects for people. In June, Frank and another researcher estimated that the collapse of India’s vulture population may have resulted in 500,000 human deaths – because without the scavenging birds to eat rotting meat, rabies and other infections proliferated.The findings on pesticide use also echo previous research, including a study of Taylor’s. In the US, cicadas emerge en masse at intervals of 13 to 17 years. Taylor found that pesticide use increased in cicada seasons, as did infant mortality. People born in cicada years had lower test scores and were more likely to drop out of school.Columbia history professor David Rosner, who has spent his career investigating environmental toxins, said the study joins a body of evidence going back to the 1960s that pesticides adversely affect human health. “We’re dumping these synthetic materials into our environment, not knowing anything about what their impacts are going to be,” he said. “It’s not surprising – it’s just kind of shocking that we discover it every year.”Find more age of extinction coverage here, and follow biodiversity reporters Phoebe Weston and Patrick Greenfield on Twitter for all the latest news and features

Because bats feed on crop pests, their disappearance led to a surge in pesticide use. Research found a rise in infant mortality in areas where the bats had been wiped outIn 2006, a deadly fungus started killing bat colonies across the United States. Now, an environmental economist has linked their loss to the deaths of more than 1,300 children.The study, published in Science on Thursday, found that farmers dramatically increased pesticide use after the bat die-offs, which was in turn linked to an average infant mortality increase of nearly 8%. Unusually, the research suggests a causative link between human and bat wellbeing. Continue reading...

In 2006, a deadly fungus started killing bat colonies across the United States. Now, an environmental economist has linked their loss to the deaths of more than 1,300 children.

The study, published in Science on Thursday, found that farmers dramatically increased pesticide use after the bat die-offs, which was in turn linked to an average infant mortality increase of nearly 8%. Unusually, the research suggests a causative link between human and bat wellbeing.

“That’s just quite rare – to get good, empirical, grounded estimates of how much value the species is providing,” said environmental economist Charles Taylor from the Harvard Kennedy School, who was not involved in the study. “Putting actual numbers to it in a credible way is tough.”

The crisis for bat colonies began in 2006, when a fungus called Pseudogymnoascus destructans hitchhiked from Europe to the US. P destructans grows on hibernating bats in winter, sprouting as white fuzz on their noses. It can extinguish a bat colony in as little as five years.

When Eyal Frank, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, learned about the disease, called white-nose syndrome, he realised it provided a perfect natural experiment to demonstrate the value of a bat. Bats eat 40% or more of their bodyweight in insects every night, including many crop pests. What would their disappearance mean?

In infected areas, he found, farmers compensated for the loss of bats by significantly increasing their use of insecticides – by 31.1% on average.

Next, Frank looked at infant mortality – a metric commonly used to judge the impact of environmental toxins. Infected counties had an infant death rate 7.9% higher, on average, than counties with healthy bats, despite pesticide use being within regulatory limits. That equates to 1,334 extra infant deaths.

A brown bat with white-nose syndrome caused by the Pseudogymnoascus destructans fungus in New York. Photograph: Ryan von Linden/AP

Frank tested other factors that might plausibly explain the rise in deaths: unemployment, the opioid epidemic, the weather, differences among mothers, or the introduction of genetically modified crops, but none explained the increase in pesticide use or the rise in infant deaths. He spent a year “kicking the tyres on the study”, and the results held. It provided “compelling evidence”, he said, “that farmers did respond to the decline in insect-eating bats, and that response had an adverse health impact on human infants”.

It is unusual for a study of this type to suggest causation, not just correlation, said Taylor.

“A lot of papers that try to link pesticides to outcomes are correlational in nature,” said Taylor. “People who are exposed to more pesticides, for example, might have other risk factors – like, farm workers are exposed to a whole host of other socioeconomic risks that could explain why there might be different health outcomes.”

White-nose syndrome, however, essentially creates a randomised controlled trial: because the spread of white-nose syndrome was closely monitored, Frank could compare counties that had lost their bats with those the disease had not yet reached. “The bat disease wasn’t expected, and it shouldn’t have preferentially targeted certain groups over others,” Taylor said.

A number of recent studies have shown how collapsing populations of wildlife can have unexpected knock-on effects for people. In June, Frank and another researcher estimated that the collapse of India’s vulture population may have resulted in 500,000 human deaths – because without the scavenging birds to eat rotting meat, rabies and other infections proliferated.

The findings on pesticide use also echo previous research, including a study of Taylor’s. In the US, cicadas emerge en masse at intervals of 13 to 17 years. Taylor found that pesticide use increased in cicada seasons, as did infant mortality. People born in cicada years had lower test scores and were more likely to drop out of school.

Columbia history professor David Rosner, who has spent his career investigating environmental toxins, said the study joins a body of evidence going back to the 1960s that pesticides adversely affect human health. “We’re dumping these synthetic materials into our environment, not knowing anything about what their impacts are going to be,” he said. “It’s not surprising – it’s just kind of shocking that we discover it every year.”

Find more age of extinction coverage here, and follow biodiversity reporters Phoebe Weston and Patrick Greenfield on Twitter for all the latest news and features

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3 Questions: The past, present, and future of sustainability science

Professor Ronald Prinn reflects on how far sustainability has come as a discipline, and where it all began at MIT.

It was 1978, over a decade before the word “sustainable” would infiltrate environmental nomenclature, and Ronald Prinn, MIT professor of atmospheric science, had just founded the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). Today, AGAGE provides real-time measurements for well over 50 environmentally harmful trace gases, enabling us to determine emissions at the country level, a key element in verifying national adherence to the Montreal Protocol and the Paris Accord. This, Prinn says, started him thinking about doing science that informed decision making.Much like global interest in sustainability, Prinn’s interest and involvement continued to grow into what would become three decades worth of achievements in sustainability science. The Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and Joint Program on the Science and Policy Global Change, respectively founded and co-founded by Prinn, have recently joined forces to create the MIT School of Science’s new Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3), lead by former CGCS postdoc turned MIT professor, Noelle Selin.As he prepares to pass the torch, Prinn reflects on how far sustainability has come, and where it all began.Q: Tell us about the motivation for the MIT centers you helped to found around sustainability.A: In 1990 after I founded the Center for Global Change Science, I also co-founded the Joint Program on the Science and Policy Global Change with a very important partner, [Henry] “Jake” Jacoby. He’s now retired, but at that point he was a professor in the MIT Sloan School of Management. Together, we determined that in order to answer questions related to what we now call sustainability of human activities, you need to combine the natural and social sciences involved in these processes. Based on this, we decided to make a joint program between the CGCS and a center that he directed, the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR).It was called the “joint program” and was joint for two reasons — not only were two centers joining, but two disciplines were joining. It was not about simply doing the same science. It was about bringing a team of people together that could tackle these coupled issues of environment, human development and economy. We were the first group in the world to fully integrate these elements together.Q: What has been your most impactful contribution and what effect did it have on the greater public’s overall understanding?A: Our biggest contribution is the development, and more importantly, the application of the Integrated Global System Model [IGSM] framework, looking at human development in both developing countries and developed countries that had a significant impact on the way people thought about climate issues. With IGSM, we were able to look at the interactions among human and natural components, studying the feedbacks and impacts that climate change had on human systems; like how it would alter agriculture and other land activities, how it would alter things we derive from the ocean, and so on.Policies were being developed largely by economists or climate scientists working independently, and we started showing how the real answers and analysis required a coupling of all of these components. We showed, and I think convincingly, that what people used to study independently, must be coupled together, because the impacts of climate change and air pollution affected so many things.To address the value of policy, despite the uncertainty in climate projections, we ran multiple runs of the IGSM with and without policy, with different choices for uncertain IGSM variables. For public communication, around 2005, we introduced our signature Greenhouse Gamble interactive visualization tools; these have been renewed over time as science and policies evolved.Q: What can MIT provide now at this critical juncture in understanding climate change and its impact?A: We need to further push the boundaries of integrated global system modeling to ensure full sustainability of human activity and all of its beneficial dimensions, which is the exciting focus that the CS3 is designed to address. We need to focus on sustainability as a central core element and use it to not just analyze existing policies but to propose new ones. Sustainability is not just climate or air pollution, it's got to do with human impacts in general. Human health is central to sustainability, and equally important to equity. We need to expand the capability for credibly assessing what the impact policies have not just on developed countries, but on developing countries, taking into account that many places around the world are at artisanal levels of their economies. They cannot be blamed for anything that is changing climate and causing air pollution and other detrimental things that are currently going on. They need our help. That's what sustainability is in its full dimensions.Our capabilities are evolving toward a modeling system so detailed that we can find out detrimental things about policies even at local levels before investing in changing infrastructure. This is going to require collaboration among even more disciplines and creating a seamless connection between research and decision making; not just for policies enacted in the public sector, but also for decisions that are made in the private sector. 

Meet the 2024 tenured professors in the MIT School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences

Faculty members granted tenure in anthropology; comparative media studies/writing; philosophy; political science; and science, technology, and society.

In 2024, eight faculty were granted tenure in the MIT School of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences. They include the following:Dwaipayan Banerjee is an associate professor in the Program in Science, Technology, and Society. His work foregrounds the intellectual labor of South Asian scientists, engineers and medical practitioners, challenging conventional understandings of science, technology, and medicine. Banerjee has published two books, “Enduring Cancer” and “Hematologies,” with a third, “Computing in the Time of Decolonization,” under review at Princeton University Press. His research spans the politics of health, pandemics, and computing, all through a lens that critically examines global inequalities in scientific and technological practice. Drawing upon his research, Banerjee's teaching philosophy emphasizes global perspectives and interdisciplinary inquiry, with courses like STS.012 (Science in Action) and 21A.504J/STS.086J/WGS.276J (Cultures of Computing) being highly popular at MIT. He has also played a pivotal role in various editorial boards, MIT committees, and advising PhD students, further solidifying his impact on both the academic and global community.Kevin Dorst PhD ‘19 is an associate professor in the Department of Linguistics and Philosophy. He works at the border between philosophy and the behavioral sciences, combining mathematical, computational, and empirical methods to study the causes of bias and polarization — and argues that people are more rational than you’d think. He earned his PhD from MIT in 2019, and then was a junior research fellow at Magdalen College at Oxford University and an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh, before returning to MIT in 2022. He currently holds a visiting Humboldt Research Fellowship at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy.Paloma Duong is an associate professor in MIT Comparative Media Studies/Writing. At the intersection of cultural studies, media theory, and critical theory, she researches and teaches modern and contemporary Latin American culture. She works with social texts and emergent media cultures that speak to the exercise of cultural agencies and the formation of political subjectivity. Her most recent book is “Portable Postsocialisms: Cuban Mediascapes after the End of History,” a study of Cuba’s changing mediascape and an inquiry on the postsocialist condition and its contexts. Her articles have been published in the Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, Art Margins, and Cuban Counterpoints: Public Scholarship about a Changing Cuba.Amy Moran-Thomas is an associate professor in MIT Anthropology. Her ethnographic research focuses on how health technologies and ecologies are designed and come to be materially embodied — often inequitably — by people in their ordinary lives. She received her PhD in Anthropology from Princeton University in 2012. Her first book, “Traveling with Sugar: Chronicles of a Global Epidemic (University of California Press, 2019),” offers an anthropological account of diabetes care technologies in use and the lives they shape in global perspective. The book received an award from the caregivers in Belize whose work it describes, alongside others. In 2024-26, she is co-leading a climate and health humanities project funded by an ACLS Digital Seed Grant, “Sugar Atlas: Counter-Mapping Diabetes from the Caribbean,” together with co-PIs Tonya Haynes and Nicole Charles. Also working on a book about embodied histories of energy, Moran-Thomas is interested in how social perspectives on design can contribute to producing fairer health technologies. More broadly, her research explores the material culture of chronic conditions; embodied aspects of planetary health; intergenerational dilemmas of responsibility; and writing public anthropology.Justin Reich is an associate professor in MIT Comparative Media Studies/Writing. He is an educational researcher interested in the future of learning in a networked world. He is the director of the MIT Teaching Systems Lab, which aspires to design, implement and research the future of teacher learning. He is the author of “Iterate: The Secret to Innovation in Schools” and “Failure to Disrupt: Why Technology Alone Can't Transform Education” from Harvard University Press. He is the host of the TeachLab podcast, and five open online courses on EdX including 0.504x (Sorting Truth from Fiction: Civic Online Reasoning) and 0.503x (Becoming a More Equitable Educator: Mindsets and Practices). He is a former fellow and faculty associate of the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University.Bettina Stoetzer is an associate professor in MIT Anthropology. She is a cultural anthropologist whose research focuses on the intersections of ecology, globalization, and social justice in Europe and the U.S. Bettina’s award-winning book, “Ruderal City: Ecologies of Migration, Race, and Urban Nature in Berlin (Duke University Press, 2022),” draws on fieldwork with immigrant and refugee communities, as well as ecologists, nature enthusiasts and other Berlin residents to illustrate how human-environment relations become a key register through which urban citizenship is articulated in Europe. She is also the author of a 2004 book on feminism and anti-racism, "InDifferenzen: Feministische Theorie in der Antirassistischen Kritik" (“InDifferences: Feminist Theory in Antiracist Criticism, argument"). She co-edited “Shock and Awe: War on Words” with Bregje van Eekelen, Jennifer Gonzalez, and Anna Tsing (New Pacific Press, 2004). She is currently working on a new project on wildlife mobility, climate change, and border politics in the U.S. and Germany. At MIT, she teaches classes on cities, race and migration, environmental justice, gender, and climate change. She received her MA in sociology, anthropology and media studies from the University of Goettingen and completed her PhD in anthropology at the University of California at Santa Cruz in 2011.Ariel White is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science. She studies voting and voting rights, race, the criminal legal system, and bureaucratic behavior. Her research uses large datasets to measure individual-level experiences, and to shed light on people's everyday interactions with government. Her recent work investigates how potential voters react to experiences with punitive government policies, such as incarceration and immigration enforcement, and how people can make their way back into political life after these experiences. In other projects, she and her co-authors have examined how local election officials treat constituents of different ethnicities, how media shapes public conversations, and whether parties face electoral penalties when nominating minority candidates. Her research has appeared in the American Political Science Review, the Journal of Politics, Science, and elsewhere.Bernardo Zacka is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science. He is a political theorist with an interest in ethnographic methods. His research focuses on how the state is experienced by those who interact with it and those who act in its name. His first book, “When the State Meets the Street (Harvard University Press, 2017),” probes the everyday moral life of street-level bureaucrats. His second book project, “Institutional Atmospherics,” looks at several episodes in the 20th century when welfare agencies turned to architecture and interior design to try to repair their relationship to citizens, and recovers from that history a more ambitious conception of what an interface between state and society can and should do. He received his PhD from the Department of Government at Harvard University. He has been a fellow of the Wissenschaftskolleg in Berlin and is currently on sabbatical at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton.

Cutbacks to U.S. Antarctic Science Risk Geopolitical Shifts at the South Pole

Reductions to American research at the South Pole could affect the politics of the southernmost continent

Antarctica may be remote, but it hasn’t escaped the scans of Google Street View. If you digitally drop into McMurdo Station, the U.S.’s busiest Antarctic installation, and slide along the volcanic rock of Ross Island, you’ll find muddy, tire-tracked roads. Along their edges are cargo containers marked “USAP,” the U.S. Antarctic Program, run by the National Science Foundation (NSF); you may also see Ivan the Terra Bus, a substantial people mover with burly tires that are nearly six feet tall.But McMurdo—normally a humming hub of research—has gotten quieter. Amid budget concerns and delayed upgrades to the station’s aging infrastructure, the NSF has pulled back on the number of scientific projects and associated people it sends to the globe’s deepest south.As the U.S. presence has decreased, though, other countries have been pouring more resources into the Antarctic. And although it’s not a contest, some experts are sounding alarms about that disparity. Security researchers say that “presence equals influence” in Antarctica, and they’re worried that the U.S. may slip in both categories while setting its scientific work back. Adrop inU.S. influence could affect geopolitics in the region and potentially endanger the safeguards ensuring the peaceful use of the Antarctic.On supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.Antarctica, as a continent and an idea, isn’t just some icy backwater: it’s an important place environmentally, scientifically and politically. “People just think of Antarctica as really far away and that it doesn’t have any impact on them,” says Deneb Karentz, vice president for science at the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). The Southern Ocean’s circulation redistributes heat globally, and deep ocean currents also carry nutrients toward the equator. “It’s a really vital part of the whole ocean system and the way that the ocean interacts with the atmosphere,” Karentz says.Antarctica is also a prime place for space research. With its stable atmosphere and lack of electromagnetic interference from civilization, astronomers and physicists can seek faint signals from long-ago, faraway, mysterious parts of the universe—signals that may be hidden from instruments on busier continents. People come from all over the world to study the ice itself, which contains 90 percent of the world’s surface fresh water. And then there’s the geology, the sea life, the extremophiles and the changing climate.Karentz’s organization, SCAR, helps countries share scientific results of all sorts and collaborate on projects. In August the organization will bring the global community together in Chile for the SCAR Open Science Conference—the first in-person meeting since 2018. Carolina Merino, a biologist at the University of La Frontera in Chile, plans to be at the meeting. She’s a member of SCAR and studies how microbes survive Antarctica’s harsh conditions. “Understanding these processes can have significant implications for climate change science and environmental conservation,” she says. At the SCAR meeting, she’s hoping to bolster international collaboration on research.In addition, the group serves as science adviser to the Antarctic Treaty system—a treaty and related documents that govern existence on the continent. SCAR shares expertise about topics such as which areas should be protected or what’s going on with climate change lately.The Antarctic Treaty isn’t complicated. “There are two things in the treaty,” Karentz says: one, Antarctica is to be used only for science, and two, “it has to be peaceful,” she says. Militaries are allowed to provide logistical support; the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security do so for the U.S. The treaty also has an Environmental Protection Protocol that lays out conservation measures and environmental management policies.The treaty was originally signed in 1959 and entered force in 1961, with the conflicted superpowers of the U.S. and the Soviet Union both coming onboard. “They agreed at that time that expanding the cold war into the coldest continent was not a useful activity,” says William Muntean, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.Even with that enforced peace, though, Antarctica is geopolitically important: it contains, for instance, resources such as fisheries, minerals and natural gas that, because of the treaty, no one can exploit. It’s also geopolitically strange. “It’s not divvied up into countries or ownership in the way the rest of the world is,” says Muntean, who served as senior adviser for Antarctica at the U.S. Department of State and, in that role, led the nation’s delegation to Antarctic Treaty meetings. Before the treaty, seven countries had already made claims on the continent, but when they signed the agreement, they barred themselves from legally acting on those claims.That’s a sovereignty situation unlike any other on Earth—and one that many researchers don’t think about when they’re preparing neutrino detectors and ice corers for the South Pole. Few people in the United States focus on the politics of Antarctica, Muntean says. “You could find a lot of scientists who can talk about penguins and ice cubes and all that sort of stuff, but very few talk about the politics of it,” he adds.The science that they do, however, is twined with the politics. Research projects—and infrastructure such as McMurdo or the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station—exist not just for the sake of knowledge gathering but also for the sake of influence. “If you want to be influential in any capacity—be it diplomatically, economically, militarily, doesn’t matter—you need to be present in a region,” says Ryan Burke, a professor at the U.S. Air Force Academy and the University of Alaska Fairbanks’s Center for Arctic Security and Resilience. That’s especially true in a place where military flexes, traditional ways for nations to establish both presence and influence, are prohibited. Muntean cites China and South Korea as countries that are increasing their Antarctic footprint and therefore their own influence.Burke and Muntean are both concerned that the U.S., meanwhile, has decreased its presence in Antarctica. In 2023 NSF announced that it was canceling more than half of the USAP projects and activities that had been funded for the 2023–2024 research season. In the two summers to follow, the announcement said, the agency would focus on already-funded projects. It did not solicit any new USAP proposals in 2024.Those changes came in part because McMurdo Station needed to be modernized for the 21st century and is in the midst of upgrades.The initial renovation was interrupted by the COVID pandemic, as were Antarctic trips in general. The disease and its disruptions delayed the work—a new dorm, for instance, is off schedule by three years—meaning there aren’t enough beds available for the typical number of scientists who would visit. Plus, as grocery stores on the mainland show, costs of all sorts have increased, meaning a given amount of money results in less renovation.Not taking new proposals in 2024 “allows NSF to focus resources on reducing the lingering backlog of projects affected by the pandemic and major upgrade work at McMurdo Station,” an NSF spokesperson says.The science agency also stated last year that it would only operate one research ship in the coming decades, rather than the two it has in the past, partially because of budgetary concerns. The Coast Guard, meanwhile, is experiencing problems with its Polar Security Cutter program, and acquisitions of new ships are delayed.All of that together, despite the logistical and financial constraints that make it seemingly necessary, has the effect of decreasing American presence in Antarctica and backing up the scientific pipeline. “It is an issue,” Karentz says, “and I think there’s legitimate concern about what it's doing to the future of the U.S. Antarctic Program.”Muntean worries about early-career researchers, whose research path might be more affected by delays due to the Antarctic slowdown and who could also face more competition because of the backup. “Right now it’s a little bit tough, I think, to say South Pole or Antarctic research has got a bright future,” he says.In Muntean’s view, U.S. planners aren’t thinking enough about pipelines in general, such as replacement plans for aging ships and planes that can move in that harsh environment. As with the on-land infrastructure, if you wait until vehicles face obsolescence, you often face a gap in capability. “The icebreaker that is currently operational—Polar Star—is almost as old as I am,” Muntean says, describing the ship that creates a channel through the ice to clear the way to McMurdo Sound. “This is not good for us.”An NSF spokesperson points to President Biden’s May 2024 National Security Memorandum on U.S. Policy on the Antarctic Region, “which reaffirms the importance of the Antarctic Treaty System ... [and] reiterates the long-standing mandate to maintain an ‘active and influential presence.’”But if the U.S. loses influence in Antarctica, there could be negative consequences for the dynamics of the region. “We have a nice, neutral, calming effect, usually, on the politics of Antarctica,” Muntean says.Burke agrees. “The U.S. is largely interested in maintaining the continent as a zone of peace and research,” he says—upholding the original tenets of the treaty, in other words.The current American pullback has led some to worry that, as Muntean put it in a recent commentary, other countries may be more likely to “pursue their individual interests rather than their collective interest.”The collective interest involves those “peace and science” ideals in the treaty, and individual interests perhaps include putting dual-use capabilities at Antarctic installations—instrumentation that’s useful both to scientists and to the military—or looking into using resources that have been set aside for conservation.Worries about countries pursuing individual interests are why treaties have enforcement mechanisms. The Antarctic Treaty has two. Countries can do unannounced inspections of other nations’ stations. “Countries show up and check out what’s happening to see whether countries are doing what they’re saying they’re doing,” Muntean says. Every state present in Antarctica also has to document their planned activities, equipment and in-person presence.A U.S. team slid in just before the pandemic in 2020 to perform recent inspections. It was led by Muntean, and members included officials from the Department of State, the Coast Guard, NSF and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “We were welcomed with open arms by all stations,” Muntean says.Over the entire lifetime of the treaty, however, only around 60 inspections have occurred—not exactly enough to keep a sharp eye on the goings-on. And in 2023 just 10 of 29 parties had done their required documentation every year for the past decade.Given all those fuzzy variables, Muntean believes that scientists who study the Antarctic shouldn’t just pay attention to their own projects and care about their own results. They also need to be part of the policy and the politics, especially if they want to ensure they get to continue to do their science at the levels they have in the past. “The U.S. needs to be thinking about how to make the platforms, and maintain the platforms, for decades to come in a manner that keeps us in the forefront of science [and] environmental protection,” Muntean says, “as well as the politics.”

Groundbreaking Antarctic Survey Reveals Hidden Patterns in Ice Shelf Melting

Scientists have used a submersible to map the underside of Antarctica’s Dotson Ice Shelf, revealing rapid melting and unusual patterns that contribute to understanding sea level rise. The research highlights the need for improved predictive models and continued exploration to comprehend future changes in ice shelf dynamics. The first detailed maps of the underside of [...]

A survey using a submersible named ‘Ran’ has mapped the underside of Antarctica’s Dotson Ice Shelf, revealing complex ice melt patterns that suggest faster melting and future sea level rise implications.Scientists have used a submersible to map the underside of Antarctica’s Dotson Ice Shelf, revealing rapid melting and unusual patterns that contribute to understanding sea level rise. The research highlights the need for improved predictive models and continued exploration to comprehend future changes in ice shelf dynamics. The first detailed maps of the underside of a floating ice shelf in Antarctica have unveiled crucial clues about future sea level rise. An international research team – including scientists from the University of East Anglia (UEA) – deployed an unmanned submersible beneath the Dotson Ice Shelf in West Antarctica. The underwater vehicle, ‘Ran’, was programmed to dive into the cavity of the 350-meter-thick ice shelf and scan the ice above it with an advanced sonar. Over 27 days, the submarine traveled more than 1000 kilometers back and forth under the shelf, reaching 17 kilometers into the cavity. Understanding Ice Shelf Dynamics An ice shelf is a mass of glacial ice, fed from land by tributary glaciers, that floats in the sea above an ice shelf cavity. Dotson Ice Shelf is part of the West Antarctic ice sheet – and next to Thwaites Glacier – which is considered to have a potentially large impact on future sea level rise due to its size and location. The researchers report their findings of this unique survey in a new paper published in the journal Science Advances. They found some things as expected, for example, the glacier melts faster where strong underwater currents erode its base. Using the submersible, they were able to measure the currents below the glacier for the first time and prove why the western part of the Dotson Ice Shelf melts so fast. They also found evidence of very high melt at vertical fractures that extend through the glacier. However, the team also saw new patterns on the glacier base that raised questions. The mapping showed that the base is not smooth, but there is a peak and valley ice-scape with plateaus and formations resembling sand dunes. The researchers hypothesize that these may have been formed by flowing water under the influence of Earth’s rotation. Insights from High-Resolution Mapping Lead author Anna Wåhlin, Professor of Oceanography at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, said: “We have previously used satellite data and ice cores to observe how ice shelves change over time. By navigating the submersible into the cavity, we were able to get high-resolution maps of the ice underside. It’s a bit like seeing the back of the moon for the first time.” The expedition was carried out in regions of drifting ice in West Antarctica in 2022 during a research cruise for the TARSAN project, a joint US-UK funded initiative that is part of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration. The project is studying how atmospheric and oceanic processes are influencing the behavior of the Thwaites and Dotson Ice Shelves – neighboring ice shelves that are behaving differently. Co-author Dr Rob Hall, from UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, co-led the cruise on the RV Nathaniel B Palmer, on which the observations were made from January to March 2022. He said: “Anna and her team successfully piloted their autonomous underwater vehicle ‘Ran’ over 1000 km under Dotson Ice Shelf collecting a huge range of data and samples, which will take several years to process and analyze. “The incredible high-resolution images of the underside of the ice shelf are the icing on the cake and will open up a whole new avenue of scientific research.” The Significance of Melting Ice Shelves Prof Karen Heywood, also from UEA and a co-author, is UK lead scientist on the TARSAN project. She said: “This has been such an exciting project to work on. When Anna sent round the first images of the underside of the Dotson ice shelf we were thrilled – nobody had ever seen this before. But we were also baffled – there were cracks and swirls in the ice that we weren’t expecting. It looked more like art! “We wondered what could be causing these. All of the glaciologists and the oceanographers in the TARSAN project got together to brainstorm ideas. It’s been like detective work – using fundamental ocean physics to test theories against the shape and size of the patterns under the ice. We’ve been able to show for the first time some of the processes that melt the underside of ice shelves. Prof Heywood added: “These ice shelves are already floating on the sea, so their melting doesn’t directly affect sea level. However, ultimately the melting of ice shelves causes the glaciers on land further upstream to flow faster and destabilize, which does lead to sea level rise, so these new observations will help the community of ice modelers to reduce the large uncertainties in future sea levels.” Scientists now realize there is a wealth of processes left to discover in future research missions under the glaciers. “The mapping has given us new data that we need to look at more closely. It is clear that many previous assumptions about the melting of glacier undersides are falling short. Current models cannot explain the complex patterns we see. But with this method, we have a better chance of finding the answers,” said Prof Wåhlin. “Better models are needed to predict how fast the ice shelves will melt in the future. It is exciting when oceanographers and glaciologists work together, combining remote sensing with oceanographic field data. This is needed to understand the glaciological changes taking place – the driving force is in the ocean.” In January 2024, the group returned with Ran to Dotson Ice Shelf to repeat the surveys, hoping to document changes. However, they were only able to complete one dive before Ran disappeared under the ice. “Although we got valuable data back, we did not get all we had hoped for,” said Prof Wåhlin. “These scientific advances were made possible thanks to the unique submersible that Ran was. This research is needed to understand the future of Antarctica’s ice sheet, and we hope to be able to replace Ran and continue this important work.” Reference: “Swirls and scoops: Ice base melt revealed by multibeam imagery of an Antarctic ice shelf” by Anna Wåhlin, Karen E. Alley, Carolyn Begeman, Øyvind Hegrenæs, Xiaohan Yuan, Alastair G. C. Graham, Kelly Hogan, Peter E. D. Davis, Tiago S. Dotto, Clare Eayrs, Robert A. Hall, David M. Holland, Tae Wan Kim, Robert D. Larter, Li Ling, Atsuhiro Muto, Erin C. Pettit, Britney E. Schmidt, Tasha Snow, Filip Stedt, Peter M. Washam, Stina Wahlgren, Christian Wild, Julia Wellner, Yixi Zheng and Karen J. Heywood, 31 July 2024, Science Advances.DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adn9188

MIT School of Science launches Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy

New center taps Institute-wide expertise to improve understanding of, and responses to, sustainability challenges.

The MIT School of Science is launching a center to advance knowledge and computational capabilities in the field of sustainability science, and support decision-makers in government, industry, and civil society to achieve sustainable development goals. Aligned with the Climate Project at MIT, researchers at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy will develop and apply expertise from across the Institute to improve understanding of sustainability challenges, and thereby provide actionable knowledge and insight to inform strategies for improving human well-being for current and future generations.Noelle Selin, professor at MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems and Society and the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, will serve as the center’s inaugural faculty director. C. Adam Schlosser and Sergey Paltsev, senior research scientists at MIT, will serve as deputy directors, with Anne Slinn as executive director.Incorporating and succeeding both the Center for Global Change Science and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change while adding new capabilities, the center aims to produce leading-edge research to help guide societal transitions toward a more sustainable future. Drawing on the long history of MIT’s efforts to address global change and its integrated environmental and human dimensions, the center is well-positioned to lead burgeoning global efforts to advance the field of sustainability science, which seeks to understand nature-society systems in their full complexity. This understanding is designed to be relevant and actionable for decision-makers in government, industry, and civil society in their efforts to develop viable pathways to improve quality of life for multiple stakeholders.“As critical challenges such as climate, health, energy, and food security increasingly affect people’s lives around the world, decision-makers need a better understanding of the earth in its full complexity — and that includes people, technologies, and institutions as well as environmental processes,” says Selin. “Better knowledge of these systems and how they interact can lead to more effective strategies that avoid unintended consequences and ensure an improved quality of life for all.”    Advancing knowledge, computational capability, and decision supportTo produce more precise and comprehensive knowledge of sustainability challenges and guide decision-makers to formulate more effective strategies, the center has set the following goals:Advance fundamental understanding of the complex interconnected physical and socio-economic systems that affect human well-being. As new policies and technologies are developed amid climate and other global changes, they interact with environmental processes and institutions in ways that can alter the earth’s critical life-support systems. Fundamental mechanisms that determine many of these systems’ behaviors, including those related to interacting climate, water, food, and socio-economic systems, remain largely unknown and poorly quantified. Better understanding can help society mitigate the risks of abrupt changes and “tipping points” in these systems.Develop, establish and disseminate new computational tools toward better understanding earth systems, including both environmental and human dimensions. The center’s work will integrate modeling and data analysis across disciplines in an era of increasing volumes of observational data. MIT multi-system models and data products will provide robust information to inform decision-making and shape the next generation of sustainability science and strategy.Produce actionable science that supports equity and justice within and across generations. The center’s research will be designed to inform action associated with measurable outcomes aligned with supporting human well-being across generations. This requires engaging a broad range of stakeholders, including not only nations and companies, but also nongovernmental organizations and communities that take action to promote sustainable development — with special attention to those who have historically borne the brunt of environmental injustice.“The center’s work will advance fundamental understanding in sustainability science, leverage leading-edge computing and data, and promote engagement and impact,” says Selin. “Our researchers will help lead scientists and strategists across the globe who share MIT’s commitment to mobilizing knowledge to inform action toward a more sustainable world.”Building a better world at MITBuilding on existing MIT capabilities in sustainability, science, and strategy, the center aims to: focus research, education, and outreach under a theme that reflects a comprehensive state of the field and international research directions, fostering a dynamic community of students, researchers, and faculty;raise the visibility of sustainability science at MIT, emphasizing links between science and action, in the context of existing Institute goals and other efforts on climate and sustainability, and in a way that reflects the vital contributions of a range of natural and social science disciplines to understanding human-environment systems; andre-emphasize MIT’s long-standing expertise in integrated systems modeling while leveraging the Institute’s concurrent leading-edge strengths in data and computing, establishing leadership that harnesses recent innovations, including those in machine learning and artificial intelligence, toward addressing the science challenges of global change and sustainability.“The Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy will provide the necessary synergy for our MIT researchers to develop, deploy, and scale up serious solutions to climate change and other critical sustainability challenges,” says Nergis Mavalvala the Curtis and Kathleen Marble Professor of Astrophysics and dean of the MIT School of Science. “With Professor Selin at its helm, the center will also ensure that these solutions are created in concert with the people who are directly affected now and in the future.”The center builds on more than three decades of achievements by the Center for Global Change Science and the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, both of which were directed or co-directed by professor of atmospheric science Ronald Prinn.

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