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In Wales, we’re one more flood away from another disaster like Aberfan | Aaron Thierry

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Tuesday, November 26, 2024

It’s “raining old ladies and sticks” is the Welsh equivalent of cats and dogs, and boy did those old ladies mean business when Storm Bert poured out nearly a month’s worth of rain on the Bannau Brycheiniog (Brecon Beacons) over Saturday night. By Sunday, the deluge was surging into the River Taff and through the Welsh valleys, forcing the Taff to burst its banks, bringing misery to communities along its length – including mine in Taff’s Well.Neighbours, who had been devastated by Storm Dennis in February 2020, were shocked to find that everything they had done to rebuild was undone. Replastered front rooms were submerged yet again. New cars were bobbing once more in the streets.The people of the valleys are strong, and they know how to pull together and work through tough times. But even the most resilient communities can be ground down by back-to-back disasters. The psychological strain is immense. How many times can you rebuild, knowing that in a rapidly heating world such floods are becoming more frequent and even more severe?And they surely must expect more such inundations. For, despite the intensification of rainfall in the UK over the past 60 years, and decades of warnings from climate scientists that unrestrained fossil fuel emissions would bring exactly these sorts of torrential downpours to the UK, the government has done remarkably little to prepare and provide communities with the resources they need to adapt.In their latest progress report on climate adaptation, the Climate Change Committee concluded starkly that the UK is “not adequately prepared” for our new and more dangerous climate, and that government plans “fall far short” of what is required. The committee’s chair, Lady Brown, went so far as to say that the “UK’s current approach to adaptation is not working.” The decision of successive governments to not give these matters the priority they deserve means they have abandoned communities like mine to bear the brunt of the climate crisis.A particularly terrifying threat for communities in the Welsh valleys is the risk of extreme rainfall destabilising old coal spoil heaps and causing them to slip, which scientists have repeatedly highlighted in their briefings. Such a slip took place in Cwmtillery this weekend; homes had to be evacuated, though thankfully no one was hurt. But as we near the 60th anniversary of the Aberfan disaster, we clearly cannot let politicians ignore these warnings any longer. The rapidly worsening climate means it is only a matter of time before a flood brings down a mountainside.What is most frustrating is that there are steps that could be taken to reduce the risk. First, we need to reduce fossil fuel emissions as fast as possible, rather than expand oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. Next, we must prioritise adaptation and better protection: hard defences such as building flood walls and upgrading sewers and drains, but also soft defences such as restoring wetlands and planting trees across the tops of the hills to hold back water for longer in the uplands of the catchment.We also need improved storm warning systems and alerts, and trained emergency response teams ready to act when needed, but this all takes investment and requires the government to properly plan and coordinate our country’s response. Instead, the Environment Agency’s budget has been slashed and new homes are still allowed to be built on flood plains.Storm Bert brings significant flooding to UK – video We desperately need to hold our political representatives to account when it comes to ensuring the country’s climate policies are up to the task of protecting us.Perhaps we should look to Valencia, where, following their recent disastrous floods, the citizens have decided they’ve had enough of government failure and are calling for political resignations and plans for litigation.But the regrettable truth is that we cannot trust governments to act sufficiently on scientific warnings alone. The terribly weak outcome at Cop29 in Azerbaijan, and the failures to implement our own national strategies, make that plain.We’re going to have to force our representatives to act on our behalf. We’re also going to have to look after each other as best we can through community building and mutual care. Be it the heroic efforts of Valencians to clean their streets of debris, or neighbours in Rhondda, Pontypridd and Taff’s Well organising rest shelters and warm meals for the affected, it’s by coming out in solidarity that we can best protect ourselves. The first step is to grow connections in our communities. Find an active group and get involved.

It is only a matter of time before a mountainside is brought down. We need climate adaptation help – and we need it nowAaron Thierry is an Earth-system scientist and environmental campaignerIt’s “raining old ladies and sticks” is the Welsh equivalent of cats and dogs, and boy did those old ladies mean business when Storm Bert poured out nearly a month’s worth of rain on the Bannau Brycheiniog (Brecon Beacons) over Saturday night. By Sunday, the deluge was surging into the River Taff and through the Welsh valleys, forcing the Taff to burst its banks, bringing misery to communities along its length – including mine in Taff’s Well.Neighbours, who had been devastated by Storm Dennis in February 2020, were shocked to find that everything they had done to rebuild was undone. Replastered front rooms were submerged yet again. New cars were bobbing once more in the streets. Continue reading...

It’s “raining old ladies and sticks” is the Welsh equivalent of cats and dogs, and boy did those old ladies mean business when Storm Bert poured out nearly a month’s worth of rain on the Bannau Brycheiniog (Brecon Beacons) over Saturday night. By Sunday, the deluge was surging into the River Taff and through the Welsh valleys, forcing the Taff to burst its banks, bringing misery to communities along its length – including mine in Taff’s Well.

Neighbours, who had been devastated by Storm Dennis in February 2020, were shocked to find that everything they had done to rebuild was undone. Replastered front rooms were submerged yet again. New cars were bobbing once more in the streets.

The people of the valleys are strong, and they know how to pull together and work through tough times. But even the most resilient communities can be ground down by back-to-back disasters. The psychological strain is immense. How many times can you rebuild, knowing that in a rapidly heating world such floods are becoming more frequent and even more severe?

And they surely must expect more such inundations. For, despite the intensification of rainfall in the UK over the past 60 years, and decades of warnings from climate scientists that unrestrained fossil fuel emissions would bring exactly these sorts of torrential downpours to the UK, the government has done remarkably little to prepare and provide communities with the resources they need to adapt.

In their latest progress report on climate adaptation, the Climate Change Committee concluded starkly that the UK is “not adequately prepared” for our new and more dangerous climate, and that government plans “fall far short” of what is required. The committee’s chair, Lady Brown, went so far as to say that the “UK’s current approach to adaptation is not working.” The decision of successive governments to not give these matters the priority they deserve means they have abandoned communities like mine to bear the brunt of the climate crisis.

A particularly terrifying threat for communities in the Welsh valleys is the risk of extreme rainfall destabilising old coal spoil heaps and causing them to slip, which scientists have repeatedly highlighted in their briefings. Such a slip took place in Cwmtillery this weekend; homes had to be evacuated, though thankfully no one was hurt. But as we near the 60th anniversary of the Aberfan disaster, we clearly cannot let politicians ignore these warnings any longer. The rapidly worsening climate means it is only a matter of time before a flood brings down a mountainside.

What is most frustrating is that there are steps that could be taken to reduce the risk. First, we need to reduce fossil fuel emissions as fast as possible, rather than expand oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. Next, we must prioritise adaptation and better protection: hard defences such as building flood walls and upgrading sewers and drains, but also soft defences such as restoring wetlands and planting trees across the tops of the hills to hold back water for longer in the uplands of the catchment.

We also need improved storm warning systems and alerts, and trained emergency response teams ready to act when needed, but this all takes investment and requires the government to properly plan and coordinate our country’s response. Instead, the Environment Agency’s budget has been slashed and new homes are still allowed to be built on flood plains.

Storm Bert brings significant flooding to UK – video

We desperately need to hold our political representatives to account when it comes to ensuring the country’s climate policies are up to the task of protecting us.

Perhaps we should look to Valencia, where, following their recent disastrous floods, the citizens have decided they’ve had enough of government failure and are calling for political resignations and plans for litigation.

But the regrettable truth is that we cannot trust governments to act sufficiently on scientific warnings alone. The terribly weak outcome at Cop29 in Azerbaijan, and the failures to implement our own national strategies, make that plain.

We’re going to have to force our representatives to act on our behalf. We’re also going to have to look after each other as best we can through community building and mutual care. Be it the heroic efforts of Valencians to clean their streets of debris, or neighbours in Rhondda, Pontypridd and Taff’s Well organising rest shelters and warm meals for the affected, it’s by coming out in solidarity that we can best protect ourselves. The first step is to grow connections in our communities. Find an active group and get involved.

Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

The Longevity Hot Spots That Weren’t

In 1999, a Belgian demographer, Michel Poulain, heard about an Italian island where people lived to be 100 and older while remaining mentally and physically active. Intrigued, Poulain visited Sardinia, where he validated people’s ages according to their birth records. Using a blue pen as he crossed the island, he marked on a map the spots where he found the oldest villagers. “From that time, it is called the blue zone,” he explained to me over the phone in June.Four years after his first trip, Poulain published an academic paper on “blue zones,” as these sites became known, in the journal Experimental Gerontology. In the paper, he speculated about the factors that led to such long lives. Was it low levels of immigration plus high levels of inbreeding? More men than women lived longer; perhaps there was an environmental influence? Shortly after publication, Poulain got a call from Dan Buettner, a long-distance cyclist and National Geographic explorer. Buettner was chasing his own longevity hot spot—a city in Okinawa, Japan, where, he’d heard, people also lived to be very old. Buettner hoped to incorporate Poulain’s work and write about both locations; his National Geographic article on the blue zones ran in 2005.In subsequent articles, books, a TED talk, and eventually a hit Netflix series, Buettner and Poulain expanded their research, naming three more blue zones in Ikaria, Greece; Nicoya, Costa Rica; and Loma Linda, California. Along the way, Buettner, who has a gravelly voice and an easy charisma, developed theories about what made the blue zones special. It wasn’t genetics, he suggested, but the environment. Physical movement was built into peoples’ daily routines, through their work, their commutes, and the surrounding geography. Plant-based foods dominated their diets, and they reported a sense of purpose and belonging. The conditions of their lives stood in stark contrast to those of most Americans, Buettner observed on the first episode of the Netflix show, which aired in 2023. And the consequences for the United States were grim. Life expectancy here was notably declining when compared to peer countries. In 2023, it dropped to 76.4 years, the shortest it had been in almost 20 years.It probably isn’t a coincidence that, as life expectancy diminishes, we have grown fixated on living longer. Longevity has lately emerged as a wellness trend, if you can call it that, given how long humans have lusted after some version of a fountain of youth. In the first recorded story, the Epic of Gilgamesh, a king desperately searches for the secret to everlasting life. But there is undeniably a renewed focus in medicine on uncovering the secrets of long life. Billionaire Peter Thiel, a co-founder of PayPal, has spent millions on anti-aging research, and Google maintains a secretive life science company, Calico, to research the biology of aging. On TikTok and X, longevity gurus and influencers suggest that we can combine lifestyle interventions with biomedical advancements to keep our bodies going—and going, and going.Buettner didn’t want to confine his and Poulain’s discoveries to written stories that might, at best, be recycled as fables. He wanted to effect real change in a world he saw becoming sicker around him. In 2009, he got a million-dollar grant from the AARP to see whether blue zones could be made, not just found. Buettner selected Albert Lea, Minnesota, near his home in Minneapolis, as the test city for a for-profit company he called the Blue Zones Project. “If you try to convince people to change their behavior, you fail,” he told me. “The whole idea was to change their environment so you’re setting them up for success instead of failure.” In the 15 years since it was established, the company, which Buettner eventually sold to the health care system Adventist Health, has enlisted more than 70 communities and more than four million people in the United States to participate.But there are a few problems. The Blue Zones Project markets itself as a public health program, but it doesn’t measure its outcomes as rigorously as comparable initiatives run by academic institutions, so it’s hard to tell how effective it is. It’s also expensive. Largely for cost-related reasons, many of the participating towns and cities gave up their certifications as Blue Zones communities. And as the company grapples with how to help people live longer, healthier lives, the original blue zones are facing their own identity crisis. The data that shows concentrated populations of centenarians, some critics now allege, is flawed. Can you turn a U.S. city into a blue zone if the zones don’t exist in the first place?In early June, I walked on the five-mile path that wraps around Fountain Lake in the center of Albert Lea. This was no ordinary sidewalk, but a “Blue Zones Walkway,” constructed as part of the city’s certification. Cathy Malakow-sky, the current head of Albert Lea’s Blue Zones Project, guided me through all the changes the town had made to transform itself. Malakowsky, who grew up in Iowa and moved to Albert Lea when she was a junior in high school, has an endearing Midwestern lilt to her voice. After going to college six miles away, she came back to marry her high school boyfriend and raise her children. She’s divorced now, but committed to Albert Lea. She began as a volunteer during the pilot project, and took over as the Blue Zones Project lead about two years ago.Later that day, Malakowsky gave me a tour of downtown. To obtain certification, cities must agree that at least 20 percent of residents; 25 percent of grocery stores, locally owned restaurants, and public schools; and 50 percent of the top 20 employers will adhere to a “healthy-living plan.” For workplaces, this can include offering healthier snack options, a break room with yoga mats, or suggested routes for employees to take walk breaks during the day. Cities also receive assessments from Blue Zones consultants for how to improve the built environment. Malakowsky pointed out new crosswalks and sidewalk extensions, along with stop signs that slow traffic. As part of the project, Albert Lea added flowerpots, benches, and trash cans that double as bike racks. “We have invested millions of dollars in sidewalks and trails to make walking easier,” Malakowsky said. At the end of the initiative’s first year, the Blue Zones Project announced that residents of Albert Lea had gained an average of 2.9 years of life expectancy. The project was deemed a success.As we got into Malakowsky’s car and drove to see more of Albert Lea’s trails, she told me about the Blue Zones Project’s True Vitality Test, which asks questions about diet, lifestyle, mental health, and social and work life. When she took it, the results said she would live until she was 88, but be healthy only until 80, unless she made changes to her diet. I noticed that the Blue Zones Project is replete with catchy—and trademarked—terminology. There’s the Life Radius, the Power 9, the 12 Pillars, and Vitality surveys, all borrowing lessons from the blue zones about how to eat, be active, and spend time in community.Jargon aside, there’s no doubt that the Blue Zones Project’s suggestions are generically good: Make your cities more walkable, improve your connections to your neighbors and family, and eat healthier foods. Naomi Imatome-Yun, the executive vice president of the company, told me it was “the largest public health project in the country.” And the blue zones tap into a powerful truth: that despite how much Americans spend on health care, our overall health is only minimally related to medical care—about 10 to 20 percent, according to research on the social determinants of health. This helps explain how the United States can spend an exorbitant amount of money on individual treatments while Americans remain so sick. Countless studies show, for instance, how income influences health outcomes. A 40-year-old man in the poorest 1 percent of the U.S. population will die, on average, 14.6 years sooner than a man in the top 1 percent. For women, the gap is about 10 years. A study done in Baltimore found a 20-year disparity between a man’s lifespan in a poor neighborhood and that of a man in a wealthy area.This idea has been in medicine’s shadow since at least the nineteenth century, when Rudolf Virchow, a German doctor considered to be one of the founders of “social medicine,” wrote a report on a typhus epidemic in Prussia from 1847 to 1848, saying that instead of medical intervention, it was social conditions that needed to improve in order to treat the disease. Virchow even became skeptical of germ theory, because he thought it would distract from the social factors that caused diseases. Poverty caused illness, not invisible pathology. Virchow helped establish Berlin’s sewer system, on the theory that sanitation systems are one of the most impactful health interventions.“From all evidence, the main determinant of your healthy life expectancy is the wealth of the family you’re born to, your occupation, and your level of education,” said Paul Crawshaw, a professor in public policy at England’s Teesside University, who has been working on place-based initiatives for decades. “The million-dollar question is can you really import that from one place to another?”The answer hits the participating towns in their pocketbooks. The Blue Zones Project is a for-profit company: It costs money to bring it into your town and get branded as a Blue Zones community. Private partners will sponsor the costs of the Blue Zones Project team, event planning, or advertising. Any larger changes made, often at Blue Zones Project’s recommendation, are funded by cities themselves. Once the sponsorship money goes away, so does the certification, which requires payment to be maintained each year.“I think any new intervention that’s trying to scale and is touted as promising should put it to the test,” said Atheendar Venkataramani, a health economist, internal medicine physician, and associate professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, who runs clinical trials on place-based initiatives. “If you’re spending money on this, you’re not spending money on something else.”After the reported success of Albert Lea’s Blue Zones Project in 2011, Terry Bran­stad, Iowa’s governor at the time, enlisted the company to make Iowa the healthiest state in the country. In January 2012, a competition was announced among cities in Iowa to become the next Blue Zones demonstration sites. After visiting Albert Lea, I took a five-day road trip through the communities that had participated in the program, to see what, if any, effects still lingered.I was surprised to learn that, unlike Albert Lea, which was certified in 2016 and still maintains the credential, Mason City, Marion, Muscatine, and Iowa City, all former blue zones, are no longer. Wellmark Blue Cross and Blue Shield had invested $25 million to pay for the Blue Zones certification. Once the money ran out, the Iowa cities couldn’t justify the cost, several government officials told me when I visited.The loss of certification didn’t mean that people gave up on bettering their communities. In Waterloo, Iowa, I visited All-In, a grocery store that opened in 2023. Sherman Wise, its co-owner, helped run the town’s Blue Zones Project. After the blue zones came and left Waterloo, the area around All-In was still a food desert—until Wise’s business became the first Black-owned independent grocery store in Waterloo. Wise wanted the store to be more than just a place to buy produce. It hosted an after-school program that taught children about cooking and healthy eating, and a class taught by a financial literacy coach. It collaborated with the Iowa Department of Corrections on life skills programs. Wise said that if the Blue Zones Project left a legacy, it was in the policies passed in order to reach certification. For example, schools changed their rules about the kinds of treats kids can bring in for their birthdays. Though the certification expired, those rules remain.Sue Beach, Waterloo’s other Blue Zones Project lead, said that she was very aware of the time limit. For a while, the initiative was kept alive by unpaid volunteers. “They wanted us to pay to continue to have the blue zone certification, but we really couldn’t do that,” she explained. In Marion, City Council member Sara Mentzer, the former lead for Marion’s Blue Zones Project, told me something similar. “The licensing was more than could be sustained,” she said. Mentzer now runs a different health initiative called Be Well Marion, which consists of programs supporting healthy eating, activity, and community involvement that are not dissimilar from the Blue Zones Project.In Mason City, officials told me that the city had recently spent $18 million developing a huge bike park and mountain biking trails. The town, home to two Frank Lloyd Wright buildings and the inspiration for The Music Man, didn’t need the Blue Zones Project to direct residents to do this; it’s what they wanted. Before leaving, I walked through an outsider-art sculpture park called Rancho Deluxe, which displayed a graffitied Blue Zones sign from the campaign hanging upside down.Brevard, North Carolina, launched a Blue Zones Project, but the city didn’t maintain the certification. A local reporter, Dan Dewitt, wrote that the City Council clashed with the company because it had been “pushing these initiatives for years” while “the real work was done by city staffers and consultants.” Nevertheless, the city still had to pay for the Blue Zones Project. In Phoenix, several community groups published a letter saying they didn’t want or need the Blue Zones Project, since it would take funding away from preexisting initiatives. “Projects like these often overshadow and push out cultural solutions that are already in place,” members wrote.The letter expressed a legitimate worry: that there might not be enough resources to fund the Blue Zones Project and similar projects already in the works. In August, the All-In grocery closed—first temporarily, then permanently. Other local stores had also recently shut down, The Gazette, a newspaper in Cedar Rapids, reported, and many people were now resorting to dollar stores to buy food.The blue zones have been used as a marketing tool for real estate development. One such development, a $600 million luxury tower in Miami, has a medical facility offering plastic surgery that is adorned with the Blue Zones brand.The Blue Zones Project describes itself as funded through private-public partnerships, but, as I learned in Iowa and Albert Lea, infrastructure changes are paid for by city funds, and governments have to approve any changes to policy. The fee pays for the advice from the Blue Zones Project, but also the branding. Earlier this year, The New York Times reported that the blue zones were being used as a “marketing tool” for a real estate development in Ave Maria, a town in Florida. One such development, a $600 million luxury tower in Miami, has a medical facility offering plastic surgery that also is adorned with the Blue Zones brand. A website that tracks realty trends reported that blue zone communities “are experiencing high demand, prompting numerous real estate companies to seek opportunities within them.”Despite asking city officials and the Blue Zones Project directly, over and over, how much the certification costs, I was never told a straight figure. “The costs vary widely depending on population size, length of the project, sectors we will be working in,” Imatome-Yun said in an email. Because of the nature of the private-public partnerships, it’s not information that’s accessible through freedom of information requests. “I’m not supposed to talk about our financial agreement with Blue Zones,” Malakowsky said when I asked her.This September, the Annals of Improbable Research magazine gave Saul Newman, a demographer at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, an Ig Nobel Prize in Demography for a 2024 paper on errors in centenarian age records. The sardonic awards are for research that “makes people laugh, and then think.” Their intended humor notwithstanding, the awards are well-respected.When I talked to Newman, it was before he won the prize, and he sounded exasperated. He had previously shown that other research on extreme age could be explained by a mistake in rounding numbers, he told me. When the mistake was corrected, evidence of remarkably long lives vanished. The research he criticized hasn’t been corrected or retracted. In his paper on the blue zones, Newman demonstrated that the factors predicting high ages in regions around the world consist of a lack of birth certificates, high poverty levels, and fewer 90-year-olds. This implies, he said, that shoddy paperwork and pension fraud—for instance, people saying elderly relatives are still alive in order to collect their welfare checks—are better explanations for blue zones than anything else. The high poverty rates in the blue zones may provide the motivation for such fraud.In Italy, recorded supercentenarians are more likely if a province has higher unemployment rates. People who are born in the Sardinian provinces Ogliastra and Medio Campidano are the least likely and second-least likely to survive from birth to age 55, Newman wrote, and according to Eurostat the Sardinian province of Olbia-Tempio has the eighth-fewest individuals alive over the age of 90—“yet somehow also ranked as the best province for survival to ages 100, 105, and 110.”When Newman looked at data from Japan’s statistics bureau, he didn’t find evidence that people who lived in Okinawa were healthier than those in the rest of the country. In fact, the island has high levels of obesity and alcohol consumption compared to other prefectures in Japan. It has the lowest per capita intake of sweet potatoes, a food profiled in the Blue Zones Netflix show as particularly healthy, and high meat consumption. Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zones argued that people in Okinawa had strong “ikigai,” or sense of purpose, but Newman pointed out that Okinawans have the fourth-highest suicide rate in Japan for those over 65. The Power 9—Buettner’s top lifestyle prescriptions, inspired by the blue zones— “are directly contradicted in every single case,” Newman wrote, “usually through population-representative surveys of hundreds of thousands of people, with levels of inaccuracy that border on farce.”Some of Buettner’s collaborators issued a response to Newman’s research, arguing that “the ages of individuals in the officially recognized blue zones have been thoroughly validated, and their exceptional longevity is well-documented” through sources like civil databases and church archives. In a letter published on its website, the Blue Zones Project said that it doesn’t claim that blue zones hold more supercentenarians, but simply that they are healthy places with high life expectancies. The poverty that Newman alluded to, the letter explained, aided people living in the zones to avoid modernization and the Western diet. In Okinawa, it’s young people who “eat and drink too much” and have unhealthy lifestyles, which skewed the overall data. The letter pointed out that Newman’s paper was not peer-reviewed and had not been published in a journal.Beyond dubious demographic statistics, the other question hanging over the blue zones is how stable they are. At the end of 2023, a paper in the journal Demographic Research suggested that the blue zone in Costa Rica wasn’t so blue anymore. Using a new nationwide survey of 550,000 adults alive between 1990 and 2020, it found that those born before 1930 were living longer than expected, but not those born after. “Hotspots of extreme longevity are probably transient,” the paper concluded.Unsurprisingly, given what he sees as flawed research, Newman is skeptical about designing public health programs based on the blue zones. “You have someone with no medical expertise, no scientific expertise, and they are telling large sections of the population what to do, and they very easily get it very wrong,” he said to me about Buettner and the Blue Zones Project. “It might be nice to go and sit around the pot with grandma and then tell tales of the old time, but that’s not science.”And yet, in the midst of a culture that’s so focused on expensive supplements and individual health, it can be refreshing to encounter an accessible longevity philosophy that’s dedicated to making daily life healthier for everyone. Not through grueling exercise, fasting, or powdered greens, but through walking, eating delicious foods, and being surrounded by friends and family until old age. Perhaps the true virtue of the blue zones lies in how easily they lend themselves to marketing. In 1952, the psychologist G.D. Wiebe posed the question, after seeing the rise of advertising, “Why can’t you sell brotherhood and rational thinking like you sell soap?” The Blue Zones Project sells one version of a healthy lifestyle, and it can motivate coordination around policies and inspire the community to buy in. Is that such a bad thing?For his part, Poulain feels uncomfortable with how blue zones were commercialized as the idea was popularized, and he did not sign the letter that Buettner’s other collaborators wrote. He pointed out that the research he’s done doesn’t get at why people in the blue zones live a long time—just that they do—but he disputed Newman’s claims, saying that he personally validated centenarians himself.Poulain and I talked four days before his seventy-seventh birthday. He incorporates blue zone principles into his own life, he explained: He prioritizes eating fruits and vegetables, rides his bike as much as he can, and says hello to others while out hiking. After we spoke, he emailed me a photo of himself, with a shock of white hair and a fluffy white beard, laughing and embracing a centenarian in Galicia, Spain, where he is in the process of certifying a new blue zone.Poulain and Buettner don’t speak any more. Poulain criticized Buettner for profiting off trademarks, and his company for not funding research into the factors that lead to longevity in the blue zones, all while pursuing commercial projects such as the Blue Zones–branded frozen meals that can be found in Whole Foods. Poulain worries that he may never discover what makes the original blue zones such healthy places to live—indeed, that the success of the brand is a danger to the blue zones themselves. “I had a researcher just today who in Ikaria cannot access centenarians because there were so many tourists arriving,” he said. “All because this is the island where you forget to die.”Is the Blue Zones Project a genuinely innovative program, or a trendy—and expensive—marketing ploy inspired by sound principles but uncertain data? The answer relies a lot on whether it works. In 2023, Dan Dewitt, the reporter from Brevard, compared statistics on Freeborn County—where Albert Lea is—from the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute’s rankings of counties’ public health to analysis from the Blue Zones Project itself. The institute showed that Freeborn County had improved its statewide health ranking between 2011 and 2018, but in 2022, that improvement slowed down. The rate of smoking increased, and that year the county had a 35 percent obesity rate—higher than the state’s, and higher than in 2011. The number of physically inactive adults was around 27 percent. In 2023, Freeborn County was rated 51 out of 87 counties in Minnesota.It also seems possible that any positive change the Blue Zones Project touts might have happened without the company’s involvement. The company considers the Beach Cities of California—Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, and Redondo Beach—to be among its success stories; in these communities, it says, the program reduced smoking and childhood obesity, and constructed miles of bike and walking paths along the beaches. But if the towns had the money to participate in the program, Venkataramani said, they might have had the resources to achieve those same outcomes on their own.Most damningly, the evidence that the Blue Zones Project uses to illustrate its effectiveness is weak. The company assesses its communities through surveying from Gallup, the polling organization. In 2007, Gallup entered a partnership with Healthways, a health services company, to measure well-being at a national scale. When Healthways partnered with Blue Zones in 2009, it gave Gallup the job of evaluating Blue Zones Project communities. But the life expectancy improvement measurements from the Blue Zones Project come from the Blue Zones team, not from Gallup, said Dan Witters, a Gallup consultant and analyst. Witters confirmed that its surveys are not longitudinal samples, meaning compared over time, but rather successive random samples. Gallup evaluates people on 20 evidence-based metrics to see whether a community is improving compared to itself, and how that improvement compares to national surveys. There are no official control cities, though Gallup will compare a Blue Zones Project community to another city on which it has wellness data. Gallup isn’t, however, able to check whether those cities also have wellness programs of their own. The Build Healthy Places Network, an organization that keeps track of similar initiatives ongoing around the country, and what measurable impact they have, doesn’t list the Blue Zones Project in its database.“The question is, what are they telling us that a public health expert wouldn’t know?” Newman said. “Do I need someone to tell me that exercise is good for me? What benefit are these very expensive programs actually conveying?”As it stands, the Blue Zones Project’s approach to evaluation doesn’t pass the smell test for Venkataramani, the doctor and health economist. “The least valid design to make a causal inference is one where you’re kind of comparing yourself to yourself, but not anyone else,” he said, “using some sort of bespoke tool that may or may not be validated.” The Blue Zones Project’s Imatome-Yun didn’t respond to a request for comment on the company’s evaluation methods.Based on Gallup’s surveys, Witters argued, well-being does improve after blue zones are established, but he offered an interesting caveat: People with already high levels of well-being are more likely to know about the initiative, and those who both know about it and participate are those who show the biggest improvements. Crawshaw has seen this before, and it raises a troubling possibility. “A lot of health promotion initiatives that are not carefully designed to avoid this problem,” agreed Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, “end up benefiting an advantaged population and creating an even bigger gap in health outcomes than existed to begin with.”Later in June, I moderated a panel at the Aspen Ideas: Health conference, where, as it happened, Dan Buettner was also speaking. After his conversation with Dean Ornish, a lifestyle medicine researcher, a crowd of people surrounded Buettner for 25 minutes before he broke off to sit with me on a bench on the Aspen Institute’s grounds. “We’re very Hippocratic in our approach,” Buettner told me. “None of our interventions would hurt anybody.” He added that a lot of the recommendations of the Blue Zones Project have been arrived at through trial and error. When I mentioned I had gone to Iowa, he shook his head, and said that, while he saluted the state’s efforts, the company had not been funded there for long enough to make the initiatives stick.I asked him about the importance of other social determinants when it came to health, like education or income inequality, and he said he had just returned from Scandinavia, where he was researching his next book. There, “everybody has access to health care, there’s better education, there’s better distribution of income,” he said. “I’m all for that. Tell me how you’re gonna do that in America. Good luck.”Buettner is a captivating public speaker. On the one hand, he captures the paradoxical simplicity and mystery of what it means to be well. On the other, he reminds us of concrete, achievable steps we can take for our health, such as eating more beans. When a woman approached him for a selfie, saying her daughter was a fan, he told her to record a video, and shot a face-to-cam message. I remembered how, in Albert Lea, Buettner’s footprints and signature were pressed into the wet cement of the Blue Zones Walkway—like Grauman’s Chinese Theatre.Instead of lamenting what we can’t do, Buettner wanted to focus on what can be done: “We can go into a city, and we can analyze it and can make it more walkable and bikeable.” The other lesson he said he’d learned from the Blue Zones Project is that he doesn’t get involved in “political squabbles.” Austin, Texas, for instance, isn’t a blue zone because the city wanted the initiative to focus on Black neighborhoods. “I said I can’t do that,” Buettner told me—not because he didn’t want to, but because he didn’t know how. “This is a populationwide intervention, or we’re not coming. We’re not favoring Blacks or gay people or rich people or poor people.”Because Buettner sold the company to Adventist Health, he said he couldn’t speak to its current practices. “I don’t know exactly how it’s being operated,” he said. “I’m told that they use my blueprint, but so much is in the execution.” He agreed that there’s pressure to default to personal lifestyle changes, such as exercise programs and Zumba and diets. “When I managed things, I tried to keep our budgets focused on permanent or semipermanent changes to the environment,” he said. He had made the company for-profit, he explained, because he believed it would be more impactful that way: “The moment anybody can access a brand for free, it gets slapped on junk food.”Buettner is very skilled at presenting the blue zones, and the brand, in an appealing way. In January 2012, Eric Carter, a Macalester College professor and health geographer, was teaching at Grinnell College when the Blue Zones Project arrived in Iowa. “Buettner had a real gift for taking epidemiological and demographic research and translating it into terms that people could use to maybe potentially make changes in their own lives,” Carter said to me in his office in St. Paul. “Maybe the blue zones aren’t meant to be the panacea for our public health problems. Maybe it is just something that’s just for the wellness space.”Whether for the “wellness space” or not, the impulse to look to older times or other places for better ways of living is reminiscent of a phenomenon described in a 1981 article in Nutrition Today by William Jarvis, a prominent nutritionist: the “myth of the healthy savage,” or the desire to romanticize remote parts of the world for their supposed longevity. The Hunza people, an indigenous community in the Himalayas, were touted as a bastion of health long before the blue zones. In a 1964 book called Hunza Health Secrets, the author, Renee Taylor, wrote that the people who lived in the region, which is in Pakistan, had “no cancer, no heart attacks, and practically no other disease to cut down men and women in the prime of life.” Men between 125 and 145 years old allegedly played volleyball. But the fantasy of the healthy savage usually turns out to be just that: a fantasy. For Hunza, incomplete birth and death rates and inaccurate measurements of disease explained the seeming lack of illness there. When a team of Japanese scientists went to Hunza in 1955, they found high rates of cancer and heart disease after examining 277 people. “We had to teach them how to cure disease, instead of learning how to be free from diseases,” the scientists concluded.Earlier this year, in May, I went to Sardinia for a weekend, taking a Ryanair flight from London. I drove inland, away from the touristy coastal hotels, to the Blue Zones area, a town called Seulo. Eventually, I passed a Blue Zones–branded sign informing me I was entering a “centenarians village.”Turning into Seulo, I felt the gravitational pull of a health intervention that was simpler. The myth of the blue zone isn’t a rejection of modernity per se, but of the material and social conditions of our time making us so sick, a promise to return to something more nurturing, something that exists underneath. Throughout Seulo, photos of elderly people hung on stone walls; the streets were empty. I saw hardly anyone, much less anyone older. I tried to eat lunch, but the only restaurant open was a delicatessen serving only sausage, and I don’t eat meat. In a café, my boyfriend ordered a coffee while I watched the other lone customer play a slot-machine game. As we drove out of town on a windy road, I ate a protein bar from my purse. We passed a sign, and I typed the words into Google Translate on my phone. “La Comunità più longeva al mondo”: the longest-lived community in the world.

In 1999, a Belgian demographer, Michel Poulain, heard about an Italian island where people lived to be 100 and older while remaining mentally and physically active. Intrigued, Poulain visited Sardinia, where he validated people’s ages according to their birth records. Using a blue pen as he crossed the island, he marked on a map the spots where he found the oldest villagers. “From that time, it is called the blue zone,” he explained to me over the phone in June.Four years after his first trip, Poulain published an academic paper on “blue zones,” as these sites became known, in the journal Experimental Gerontology. In the paper, he speculated about the factors that led to such long lives. Was it low levels of immigration plus high levels of inbreeding? More men than women lived longer; perhaps there was an environmental influence? Shortly after publication, Poulain got a call from Dan Buettner, a long-distance cyclist and National Geographic explorer. Buettner was chasing his own longevity hot spot—a city in Okinawa, Japan, where, he’d heard, people also lived to be very old. Buettner hoped to incorporate Poulain’s work and write about both locations; his National Geographic article on the blue zones ran in 2005.In subsequent articles, books, a TED talk, and eventually a hit Netflix series, Buettner and Poulain expanded their research, naming three more blue zones in Ikaria, Greece; Nicoya, Costa Rica; and Loma Linda, California. Along the way, Buettner, who has a gravelly voice and an easy charisma, developed theories about what made the blue zones special. It wasn’t genetics, he suggested, but the environment. Physical movement was built into peoples’ daily routines, through their work, their commutes, and the surrounding geography. Plant-based foods dominated their diets, and they reported a sense of purpose and belonging. The conditions of their lives stood in stark contrast to those of most Americans, Buettner observed on the first episode of the Netflix show, which aired in 2023. And the consequences for the United States were grim. Life expectancy here was notably declining when compared to peer countries. In 2023, it dropped to 76.4 years, the shortest it had been in almost 20 years.It probably isn’t a coincidence that, as life expectancy diminishes, we have grown fixated on living longer. Longevity has lately emerged as a wellness trend, if you can call it that, given how long humans have lusted after some version of a fountain of youth. In the first recorded story, the Epic of Gilgamesh, a king desperately searches for the secret to everlasting life. But there is undeniably a renewed focus in medicine on uncovering the secrets of long life. Billionaire Peter Thiel, a co-founder of PayPal, has spent millions on anti-aging research, and Google maintains a secretive life science company, Calico, to research the biology of aging. On TikTok and X, longevity gurus and influencers suggest that we can combine lifestyle interventions with biomedical advancements to keep our bodies going—and going, and going.Buettner didn’t want to confine his and Poulain’s discoveries to written stories that might, at best, be recycled as fables. He wanted to effect real change in a world he saw becoming sicker around him. In 2009, he got a million-dollar grant from the AARP to see whether blue zones could be made, not just found. Buettner selected Albert Lea, Minnesota, near his home in Minneapolis, as the test city for a for-profit company he called the Blue Zones Project. “If you try to convince people to change their behavior, you fail,” he told me. “The whole idea was to change their environment so you’re setting them up for success instead of failure.” In the 15 years since it was established, the company, which Buettner eventually sold to the health care system Adventist Health, has enlisted more than 70 communities and more than four million people in the United States to participate.But there are a few problems. The Blue Zones Project markets itself as a public health program, but it doesn’t measure its outcomes as rigorously as comparable initiatives run by academic institutions, so it’s hard to tell how effective it is. It’s also expensive. Largely for cost-related reasons, many of the participating towns and cities gave up their certifications as Blue Zones communities. And as the company grapples with how to help people live longer, healthier lives, the original blue zones are facing their own identity crisis. The data that shows concentrated populations of centenarians, some critics now allege, is flawed. Can you turn a U.S. city into a blue zone if the zones don’t exist in the first place?In early June, I walked on the five-mile path that wraps around Fountain Lake in the center of Albert Lea. This was no ordinary sidewalk, but a “Blue Zones Walkway,” constructed as part of the city’s certification. Cathy Malakow-sky, the current head of Albert Lea’s Blue Zones Project, guided me through all the changes the town had made to transform itself. Malakowsky, who grew up in Iowa and moved to Albert Lea when she was a junior in high school, has an endearing Midwestern lilt to her voice. After going to college six miles away, she came back to marry her high school boyfriend and raise her children. She’s divorced now, but committed to Albert Lea. She began as a volunteer during the pilot project, and took over as the Blue Zones Project lead about two years ago.Later that day, Malakowsky gave me a tour of downtown. To obtain certification, cities must agree that at least 20 percent of residents; 25 percent of grocery stores, locally owned restaurants, and public schools; and 50 percent of the top 20 employers will adhere to a “healthy-living plan.” For workplaces, this can include offering healthier snack options, a break room with yoga mats, or suggested routes for employees to take walk breaks during the day. Cities also receive assessments from Blue Zones consultants for how to improve the built environment. Malakowsky pointed out new crosswalks and sidewalk extensions, along with stop signs that slow traffic. As part of the project, Albert Lea added flowerpots, benches, and trash cans that double as bike racks. “We have invested millions of dollars in sidewalks and trails to make walking easier,” Malakowsky said. At the end of the initiative’s first year, the Blue Zones Project announced that residents of Albert Lea had gained an average of 2.9 years of life expectancy. The project was deemed a success.As we got into Malakowsky’s car and drove to see more of Albert Lea’s trails, she told me about the Blue Zones Project’s True Vitality Test, which asks questions about diet, lifestyle, mental health, and social and work life. When she took it, the results said she would live until she was 88, but be healthy only until 80, unless she made changes to her diet. I noticed that the Blue Zones Project is replete with catchy—and trademarked—terminology. There’s the Life Radius, the Power 9, the 12 Pillars, and Vitality surveys, all borrowing lessons from the blue zones about how to eat, be active, and spend time in community.Jargon aside, there’s no doubt that the Blue Zones Project’s suggestions are generically good: Make your cities more walkable, improve your connections to your neighbors and family, and eat healthier foods. Naomi Imatome-Yun, the executive vice president of the company, told me it was “the largest public health project in the country.” And the blue zones tap into a powerful truth: that despite how much Americans spend on health care, our overall health is only minimally related to medical care—about 10 to 20 percent, according to research on the social determinants of health. This helps explain how the United States can spend an exorbitant amount of money on individual treatments while Americans remain so sick. Countless studies show, for instance, how income influences health outcomes. A 40-year-old man in the poorest 1 percent of the U.S. population will die, on average, 14.6 years sooner than a man in the top 1 percent. For women, the gap is about 10 years. A study done in Baltimore found a 20-year disparity between a man’s lifespan in a poor neighborhood and that of a man in a wealthy area.This idea has been in medicine’s shadow since at least the nineteenth century, when Rudolf Virchow, a German doctor considered to be one of the founders of “social medicine,” wrote a report on a typhus epidemic in Prussia from 1847 to 1848, saying that instead of medical intervention, it was social conditions that needed to improve in order to treat the disease. Virchow even became skeptical of germ theory, because he thought it would distract from the social factors that caused diseases. Poverty caused illness, not invisible pathology. Virchow helped establish Berlin’s sewer system, on the theory that sanitation systems are one of the most impactful health interventions.“From all evidence, the main determinant of your healthy life expectancy is the wealth of the family you’re born to, your occupation, and your level of education,” said Paul Crawshaw, a professor in public policy at England’s Teesside University, who has been working on place-based initiatives for decades. “The million-dollar question is can you really import that from one place to another?”The answer hits the participating towns in their pocketbooks. The Blue Zones Project is a for-profit company: It costs money to bring it into your town and get branded as a Blue Zones community. Private partners will sponsor the costs of the Blue Zones Project team, event planning, or advertising. Any larger changes made, often at Blue Zones Project’s recommendation, are funded by cities themselves. Once the sponsorship money goes away, so does the certification, which requires payment to be maintained each year.“I think any new intervention that’s trying to scale and is touted as promising should put it to the test,” said Atheendar Venkataramani, a health economist, internal medicine physician, and associate professor at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, who runs clinical trials on place-based initiatives. “If you’re spending money on this, you’re not spending money on something else.”After the reported success of Albert Lea’s Blue Zones Project in 2011, Terry Bran­stad, Iowa’s governor at the time, enlisted the company to make Iowa the healthiest state in the country. In January 2012, a competition was announced among cities in Iowa to become the next Blue Zones demonstration sites. After visiting Albert Lea, I took a five-day road trip through the communities that had participated in the program, to see what, if any, effects still lingered.I was surprised to learn that, unlike Albert Lea, which was certified in 2016 and still maintains the credential, Mason City, Marion, Muscatine, and Iowa City, all former blue zones, are no longer. Wellmark Blue Cross and Blue Shield had invested $25 million to pay for the Blue Zones certification. Once the money ran out, the Iowa cities couldn’t justify the cost, several government officials told me when I visited.The loss of certification didn’t mean that people gave up on bettering their communities. In Waterloo, Iowa, I visited All-In, a grocery store that opened in 2023. Sherman Wise, its co-owner, helped run the town’s Blue Zones Project. After the blue zones came and left Waterloo, the area around All-In was still a food desert—until Wise’s business became the first Black-owned independent grocery store in Waterloo. Wise wanted the store to be more than just a place to buy produce. It hosted an after-school program that taught children about cooking and healthy eating, and a class taught by a financial literacy coach. It collaborated with the Iowa Department of Corrections on life skills programs. Wise said that if the Blue Zones Project left a legacy, it was in the policies passed in order to reach certification. For example, schools changed their rules about the kinds of treats kids can bring in for their birthdays. Though the certification expired, those rules remain.Sue Beach, Waterloo’s other Blue Zones Project lead, said that she was very aware of the time limit. For a while, the initiative was kept alive by unpaid volunteers. “They wanted us to pay to continue to have the blue zone certification, but we really couldn’t do that,” she explained. In Marion, City Council member Sara Mentzer, the former lead for Marion’s Blue Zones Project, told me something similar. “The licensing was more than could be sustained,” she said. Mentzer now runs a different health initiative called Be Well Marion, which consists of programs supporting healthy eating, activity, and community involvement that are not dissimilar from the Blue Zones Project.In Mason City, officials told me that the city had recently spent $18 million developing a huge bike park and mountain biking trails. The town, home to two Frank Lloyd Wright buildings and the inspiration for The Music Man, didn’t need the Blue Zones Project to direct residents to do this; it’s what they wanted. Before leaving, I walked through an outsider-art sculpture park called Rancho Deluxe, which displayed a graffitied Blue Zones sign from the campaign hanging upside down.Brevard, North Carolina, launched a Blue Zones Project, but the city didn’t maintain the certification. A local reporter, Dan Dewitt, wrote that the City Council clashed with the company because it had been “pushing these initiatives for years” while “the real work was done by city staffers and consultants.” Nevertheless, the city still had to pay for the Blue Zones Project. In Phoenix, several community groups published a letter saying they didn’t want or need the Blue Zones Project, since it would take funding away from preexisting initiatives. “Projects like these often overshadow and push out cultural solutions that are already in place,” members wrote.The letter expressed a legitimate worry: that there might not be enough resources to fund the Blue Zones Project and similar projects already in the works. In August, the All-In grocery closed—first temporarily, then permanently. Other local stores had also recently shut down, The Gazette, a newspaper in Cedar Rapids, reported, and many people were now resorting to dollar stores to buy food.The blue zones have been used as a marketing tool for real estate development. One such development, a $600 million luxury tower in Miami, has a medical facility offering plastic surgery that is adorned with the Blue Zones brand.The Blue Zones Project describes itself as funded through private-public partnerships, but, as I learned in Iowa and Albert Lea, infrastructure changes are paid for by city funds, and governments have to approve any changes to policy. The fee pays for the advice from the Blue Zones Project, but also the branding. Earlier this year, The New York Times reported that the blue zones were being used as a “marketing tool” for a real estate development in Ave Maria, a town in Florida. One such development, a $600 million luxury tower in Miami, has a medical facility offering plastic surgery that also is adorned with the Blue Zones brand. A website that tracks realty trends reported that blue zone communities “are experiencing high demand, prompting numerous real estate companies to seek opportunities within them.”Despite asking city officials and the Blue Zones Project directly, over and over, how much the certification costs, I was never told a straight figure. “The costs vary widely depending on population size, length of the project, sectors we will be working in,” Imatome-Yun said in an email. Because of the nature of the private-public partnerships, it’s not information that’s accessible through freedom of information requests. “I’m not supposed to talk about our financial agreement with Blue Zones,” Malakowsky said when I asked her.This September, the Annals of Improbable Research magazine gave Saul Newman, a demographer at the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, an Ig Nobel Prize in Demography for a 2024 paper on errors in centenarian age records. The sardonic awards are for research that “makes people laugh, and then think.” Their intended humor notwithstanding, the awards are well-respected.When I talked to Newman, it was before he won the prize, and he sounded exasperated. He had previously shown that other research on extreme age could be explained by a mistake in rounding numbers, he told me. When the mistake was corrected, evidence of remarkably long lives vanished. The research he criticized hasn’t been corrected or retracted. In his paper on the blue zones, Newman demonstrated that the factors predicting high ages in regions around the world consist of a lack of birth certificates, high poverty levels, and fewer 90-year-olds. This implies, he said, that shoddy paperwork and pension fraud—for instance, people saying elderly relatives are still alive in order to collect their welfare checks—are better explanations for blue zones than anything else. The high poverty rates in the blue zones may provide the motivation for such fraud.In Italy, recorded supercentenarians are more likely if a province has higher unemployment rates. People who are born in the Sardinian provinces Ogliastra and Medio Campidano are the least likely and second-least likely to survive from birth to age 55, Newman wrote, and according to Eurostat the Sardinian province of Olbia-Tempio has the eighth-fewest individuals alive over the age of 90—“yet somehow also ranked as the best province for survival to ages 100, 105, and 110.”When Newman looked at data from Japan’s statistics bureau, he didn’t find evidence that people who lived in Okinawa were healthier than those in the rest of the country. In fact, the island has high levels of obesity and alcohol consumption compared to other prefectures in Japan. It has the lowest per capita intake of sweet potatoes, a food profiled in the Blue Zones Netflix show as particularly healthy, and high meat consumption. Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zones argued that people in Okinawa had strong “ikigai,” or sense of purpose, but Newman pointed out that Okinawans have the fourth-highest suicide rate in Japan for those over 65. The Power 9—Buettner’s top lifestyle prescriptions, inspired by the blue zones— “are directly contradicted in every single case,” Newman wrote, “usually through population-representative surveys of hundreds of thousands of people, with levels of inaccuracy that border on farce.”Some of Buettner’s collaborators issued a response to Newman’s research, arguing that “the ages of individuals in the officially recognized blue zones have been thoroughly validated, and their exceptional longevity is well-documented” through sources like civil databases and church archives. In a letter published on its website, the Blue Zones Project said that it doesn’t claim that blue zones hold more supercentenarians, but simply that they are healthy places with high life expectancies. The poverty that Newman alluded to, the letter explained, aided people living in the zones to avoid modernization and the Western diet. In Okinawa, it’s young people who “eat and drink too much” and have unhealthy lifestyles, which skewed the overall data. The letter pointed out that Newman’s paper was not peer-reviewed and had not been published in a journal.Beyond dubious demographic statistics, the other question hanging over the blue zones is how stable they are. At the end of 2023, a paper in the journal Demographic Research suggested that the blue zone in Costa Rica wasn’t so blue anymore. Using a new nationwide survey of 550,000 adults alive between 1990 and 2020, it found that those born before 1930 were living longer than expected, but not those born after. “Hotspots of extreme longevity are probably transient,” the paper concluded.Unsurprisingly, given what he sees as flawed research, Newman is skeptical about designing public health programs based on the blue zones. “You have someone with no medical expertise, no scientific expertise, and they are telling large sections of the population what to do, and they very easily get it very wrong,” he said to me about Buettner and the Blue Zones Project. “It might be nice to go and sit around the pot with grandma and then tell tales of the old time, but that’s not science.”And yet, in the midst of a culture that’s so focused on expensive supplements and individual health, it can be refreshing to encounter an accessible longevity philosophy that’s dedicated to making daily life healthier for everyone. Not through grueling exercise, fasting, or powdered greens, but through walking, eating delicious foods, and being surrounded by friends and family until old age. Perhaps the true virtue of the blue zones lies in how easily they lend themselves to marketing. In 1952, the psychologist G.D. Wiebe posed the question, after seeing the rise of advertising, “Why can’t you sell brotherhood and rational thinking like you sell soap?” The Blue Zones Project sells one version of a healthy lifestyle, and it can motivate coordination around policies and inspire the community to buy in. Is that such a bad thing?For his part, Poulain feels uncomfortable with how blue zones were commercialized as the idea was popularized, and he did not sign the letter that Buettner’s other collaborators wrote. He pointed out that the research he’s done doesn’t get at why people in the blue zones live a long time—just that they do—but he disputed Newman’s claims, saying that he personally validated centenarians himself.Poulain and I talked four days before his seventy-seventh birthday. He incorporates blue zone principles into his own life, he explained: He prioritizes eating fruits and vegetables, rides his bike as much as he can, and says hello to others while out hiking. After we spoke, he emailed me a photo of himself, with a shock of white hair and a fluffy white beard, laughing and embracing a centenarian in Galicia, Spain, where he is in the process of certifying a new blue zone.Poulain and Buettner don’t speak any more. Poulain criticized Buettner for profiting off trademarks, and his company for not funding research into the factors that lead to longevity in the blue zones, all while pursuing commercial projects such as the Blue Zones–branded frozen meals that can be found in Whole Foods. Poulain worries that he may never discover what makes the original blue zones such healthy places to live—indeed, that the success of the brand is a danger to the blue zones themselves. “I had a researcher just today who in Ikaria cannot access centenarians because there were so many tourists arriving,” he said. “All because this is the island where you forget to die.”Is the Blue Zones Project a genuinely innovative program, or a trendy—and expensive—marketing ploy inspired by sound principles but uncertain data? The answer relies a lot on whether it works. In 2023, Dan Dewitt, the reporter from Brevard, compared statistics on Freeborn County—where Albert Lea is—from the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute’s rankings of counties’ public health to analysis from the Blue Zones Project itself. The institute showed that Freeborn County had improved its statewide health ranking between 2011 and 2018, but in 2022, that improvement slowed down. The rate of smoking increased, and that year the county had a 35 percent obesity rate—higher than the state’s, and higher than in 2011. The number of physically inactive adults was around 27 percent. In 2023, Freeborn County was rated 51 out of 87 counties in Minnesota.It also seems possible that any positive change the Blue Zones Project touts might have happened without the company’s involvement. The company considers the Beach Cities of California—Hermosa Beach, Manhattan Beach, and Redondo Beach—to be among its success stories; in these communities, it says, the program reduced smoking and childhood obesity, and constructed miles of bike and walking paths along the beaches. But if the towns had the money to participate in the program, Venkataramani said, they might have had the resources to achieve those same outcomes on their own.Most damningly, the evidence that the Blue Zones Project uses to illustrate its effectiveness is weak. The company assesses its communities through surveying from Gallup, the polling organization. In 2007, Gallup entered a partnership with Healthways, a health services company, to measure well-being at a national scale. When Healthways partnered with Blue Zones in 2009, it gave Gallup the job of evaluating Blue Zones Project communities. But the life expectancy improvement measurements from the Blue Zones Project come from the Blue Zones team, not from Gallup, said Dan Witters, a Gallup consultant and analyst. Witters confirmed that its surveys are not longitudinal samples, meaning compared over time, but rather successive random samples. Gallup evaluates people on 20 evidence-based metrics to see whether a community is improving compared to itself, and how that improvement compares to national surveys. There are no official control cities, though Gallup will compare a Blue Zones Project community to another city on which it has wellness data. Gallup isn’t, however, able to check whether those cities also have wellness programs of their own. The Build Healthy Places Network, an organization that keeps track of similar initiatives ongoing around the country, and what measurable impact they have, doesn’t list the Blue Zones Project in its database.“The question is, what are they telling us that a public health expert wouldn’t know?” Newman said. “Do I need someone to tell me that exercise is good for me? What benefit are these very expensive programs actually conveying?”As it stands, the Blue Zones Project’s approach to evaluation doesn’t pass the smell test for Venkataramani, the doctor and health economist. “The least valid design to make a causal inference is one where you’re kind of comparing yourself to yourself, but not anyone else,” he said, “using some sort of bespoke tool that may or may not be validated.” The Blue Zones Project’s Imatome-Yun didn’t respond to a request for comment on the company’s evaluation methods.Based on Gallup’s surveys, Witters argued, well-being does improve after blue zones are established, but he offered an interesting caveat: People with already high levels of well-being are more likely to know about the initiative, and those who both know about it and participate are those who show the biggest improvements. Crawshaw has seen this before, and it raises a troubling possibility. “A lot of health promotion initiatives that are not carefully designed to avoid this problem,” agreed Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, “end up benefiting an advantaged population and creating an even bigger gap in health outcomes than existed to begin with.”Later in June, I moderated a panel at the Aspen Ideas: Health conference, where, as it happened, Dan Buettner was also speaking. After his conversation with Dean Ornish, a lifestyle medicine researcher, a crowd of people surrounded Buettner for 25 minutes before he broke off to sit with me on a bench on the Aspen Institute’s grounds. “We’re very Hippocratic in our approach,” Buettner told me. “None of our interventions would hurt anybody.” He added that a lot of the recommendations of the Blue Zones Project have been arrived at through trial and error. When I mentioned I had gone to Iowa, he shook his head, and said that, while he saluted the state’s efforts, the company had not been funded there for long enough to make the initiatives stick.I asked him about the importance of other social determinants when it came to health, like education or income inequality, and he said he had just returned from Scandinavia, where he was researching his next book. There, “everybody has access to health care, there’s better education, there’s better distribution of income,” he said. “I’m all for that. Tell me how you’re gonna do that in America. Good luck.”Buettner is a captivating public speaker. On the one hand, he captures the paradoxical simplicity and mystery of what it means to be well. On the other, he reminds us of concrete, achievable steps we can take for our health, such as eating more beans. When a woman approached him for a selfie, saying her daughter was a fan, he told her to record a video, and shot a face-to-cam message. I remembered how, in Albert Lea, Buettner’s footprints and signature were pressed into the wet cement of the Blue Zones Walkway—like Grauman’s Chinese Theatre.Instead of lamenting what we can’t do, Buettner wanted to focus on what can be done: “We can go into a city, and we can analyze it and can make it more walkable and bikeable.” The other lesson he said he’d learned from the Blue Zones Project is that he doesn’t get involved in “political squabbles.” Austin, Texas, for instance, isn’t a blue zone because the city wanted the initiative to focus on Black neighborhoods. “I said I can’t do that,” Buettner told me—not because he didn’t want to, but because he didn’t know how. “This is a populationwide intervention, or we’re not coming. We’re not favoring Blacks or gay people or rich people or poor people.”Because Buettner sold the company to Adventist Health, he said he couldn’t speak to its current practices. “I don’t know exactly how it’s being operated,” he said. “I’m told that they use my blueprint, but so much is in the execution.” He agreed that there’s pressure to default to personal lifestyle changes, such as exercise programs and Zumba and diets. “When I managed things, I tried to keep our budgets focused on permanent or semipermanent changes to the environment,” he said. He had made the company for-profit, he explained, because he believed it would be more impactful that way: “The moment anybody can access a brand for free, it gets slapped on junk food.”Buettner is very skilled at presenting the blue zones, and the brand, in an appealing way. In January 2012, Eric Carter, a Macalester College professor and health geographer, was teaching at Grinnell College when the Blue Zones Project arrived in Iowa. “Buettner had a real gift for taking epidemiological and demographic research and translating it into terms that people could use to maybe potentially make changes in their own lives,” Carter said to me in his office in St. Paul. “Maybe the blue zones aren’t meant to be the panacea for our public health problems. Maybe it is just something that’s just for the wellness space.”Whether for the “wellness space” or not, the impulse to look to older times or other places for better ways of living is reminiscent of a phenomenon described in a 1981 article in Nutrition Today by William Jarvis, a prominent nutritionist: the “myth of the healthy savage,” or the desire to romanticize remote parts of the world for their supposed longevity. The Hunza people, an indigenous community in the Himalayas, were touted as a bastion of health long before the blue zones. In a 1964 book called Hunza Health Secrets, the author, Renee Taylor, wrote that the people who lived in the region, which is in Pakistan, had “no cancer, no heart attacks, and practically no other disease to cut down men and women in the prime of life.” Men between 125 and 145 years old allegedly played volleyball. But the fantasy of the healthy savage usually turns out to be just that: a fantasy. For Hunza, incomplete birth and death rates and inaccurate measurements of disease explained the seeming lack of illness there. When a team of Japanese scientists went to Hunza in 1955, they found high rates of cancer and heart disease after examining 277 people. “We had to teach them how to cure disease, instead of learning how to be free from diseases,” the scientists concluded.Earlier this year, in May, I went to Sardinia for a weekend, taking a Ryanair flight from London. I drove inland, away from the touristy coastal hotels, to the Blue Zones area, a town called Seulo. Eventually, I passed a Blue Zones–branded sign informing me I was entering a “centenarians village.”Turning into Seulo, I felt the gravitational pull of a health intervention that was simpler. The myth of the blue zone isn’t a rejection of modernity per se, but of the material and social conditions of our time making us so sick, a promise to return to something more nurturing, something that exists underneath. Throughout Seulo, photos of elderly people hung on stone walls; the streets were empty. I saw hardly anyone, much less anyone older. I tried to eat lunch, but the only restaurant open was a delicatessen serving only sausage, and I don’t eat meat. In a café, my boyfriend ordered a coffee while I watched the other lone customer play a slot-machine game. As we drove out of town on a windy road, I ate a protein bar from my purse. We passed a sign, and I typed the words into Google Translate on my phone. “La Comunità più longeva al mondo”: the longest-lived community in the world.

At COP29, new rules for carbon markets made them even more controversial

Environmental groups say weak guidelines risk facilitating “cowboy carbon markets at a time when the world needs a sheriff.”

Delegates closed out this year’s United Nations climate conference on Saturday after agonizing debates on the right way to deliver on the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement. In addition to approving a new framework for international climate aid, nearly 200 countries approved guidelines meant to make it cheaper and easier for them to reach their emissions reduction targets by trading in international carbon markets — in essence, allowing one country to pay another to make emissions cuts on its behalf. While some delegates applauded these developments, many experts and environmental groups are unhappy with the final agreement. Among the flaws observers identified were a lack of transparency in the way countries count and report carbon credits and the absence of concrete consequences when agreed-upon guidelines aren’t followed. The final guidelines also failed to provide much specificity about the types of projects allowed to create carbon credits. Carbon Market Watch, a European watchdog and research group, said in a statement that the agreements reached at the end of the conference risked “facilitating cowboy carbon markets at a time when the world needs a sheriff.”  The carbon markets in question have to do with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. First outlined in 2015, the article imagined three ways for countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions cooperatively. Fleshing out the details, however, has remained the subject of contention through multiple COPs, the name for the annual climate meetings held by the United Nations. Article 6’s first cooperative approach, under Article 6.2, allows countries to bilaterally trade carbon credits known as “internationally transferred mitigation outcomes” — certificates each representing 1 metric ton of carbon emissions that are prevented or removed from the atmosphere. The second approach, described in Article 6.4, envisions a global market for carbon credits — in this case dubbed “emission reduction units” — that are purchasable by governments and companies alike. Article 6.8 highlights nonmarket approaches, the third cooperative carbon-reduction mechanism. It wasn’t discussed much at COP29, but it’s supposed to create a platform for wealthy countries to donate money or climate technology to poorer countries. According to the International Emissions Trading Association, a pro-carbon market industry group, Articles 6.2 and 6.4 could reduce the cost of reaching countries’ emissions targets by up to $250 billion a year by 2030, since they incentivize countries to do the least expensive emissions reductions first. Simon Watts, New Zealand’s climate minister, said in a statement that the decision to greenlight Article 6 “sends a clear signal to the market to unlock investments in activities that reduce emissions and enable countries to be able to work together and support each other to meet their climate targets.” Critics, however, say carbon trading mechanisms distract wealthy countries from the essential work of reducing their own emissions. They say Article 6 risks replicating some of the same fraud and human rights issues that have tainted existing carbon markets outside of the U.N.’s purview.  The first big piece of news out of COP29, this year’s U.N. climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, was about Article 6.4, the global carbon market for countries and businesses. On November 11, the opening day of the summit, delegates approved two key documents to make the market work, and countries are now expected to begin using it as early as mid-2025.COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev touted the market’s fast-tracked approval as a breakthrough “following years of stalemate,” an apparent attempt to set a positive tone for the rest of the two-week conference. But the announcement obscured broader disagreements over Article 6. COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev leads a plenary on the opening day of the conference. Sean Gallup / Getty Images One reason for conflict is that COP29’s initial agreements over Article 6.4 were not reached through negotiation. Rather, they were reached through a procedural sleight of hand by the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body, the 12-person technical group charged with designing standards for the new carbon market. Instead of asking national delegates to weigh in on and approve those two key documents, the Supervisory Body unilaterally adopted them in October and asked delegates to rubber-stamp them at COP29.  The texts that were pushed through outline the types of carbon removal projects that are allowed to generate carbon credits, and the methodologies used to determine how much a carbon credit is worth. Isa Mulder, an expert on global carbon markets for Carbon Market Watch, said the move sets a dangerous precedent for the Supervisory Body — and potentially other technical groups — to push forward controversial texts without submitting them to delegates for discussion or negotiation.  Similar fears were raised by a host of other observers, as well as the delegate from Tuvalu. Erika Lennon, a senior attorney from the nonprofit Center for International Environmental Law, called it in a statement a “rogue move from the Supervisory Body to prevail in the quest to start COP29 with a ‘win.’” Critics voiced not only procedural concerns, but also substantive ones. Lennon criticized the Supervisory Body’s guidance for being too vague about the types of carbon projects allowed to generate credits — some projects, like storing carbon in rocks, are more reliable than others — and for failing to set monitoring requirements that ensure against “reversal,” the release of carbon that was supposed be locked up in perpetuity (like when a wildfire burns up a forest).  “Governments now face the real possibility of having created a Paris-sanctioned carbon market that could be worse for people and the planet than the scandal-ridden voluntary carbon markets,” she said, referring to the unregulated marketplace that companies already use to claim they’ve offset their greenhouse gas emissions. Injy Johnstone, a decarbonization research associate at the University of Oxford, said a lack of transparency and accountability could allow countries to exaggerate their emissions reductions achieved through offsets. “Where there are loopholes, they will be exploited,” she said. As negotiations closed on Sunday, those issues remained unresolved, along with others involving the transfer of credits from the Article 6.4 carbon market’s predecessor. *** Article 6.2, the agreement allowing countries to bilaterally trade carbon credits, had already been in operation before COP29. Under what Lennon described as a “bare-bones” framework from the U.N., rich countries including Japan and Switzerland had set up agreements to exchange carbon credits with developing nations in order to claim progress toward their “nationally determined contributions” — the emissions-reduction pledges countries make under the Paris Agreement.  The aim for COP29 was to flesh out Article 6.2 rules on transparency and accountability, including how countries should authorize carbon credits, so that more countries could participate. That didn’t happen — at least, not to the extent that some had hoped. Environmental groups and some negotiating blocs — notably, the EU — sounded the alarm over countries “moving backwards” in terms of the mechanism’s reliability. Near the end of the conference, Mulder said the 6.2 mechanism had been watered down so significantly that it risked becoming “just a framework where it’s completely up to countries to do whatever they want.” The exact disagreements are deeply technical. One of the main disputes concerns language in the final text that “requests” — rather than mandates — that countries pause the use of carbon credits flagged for integrity issues by a U.N. technical body. Another part of the text makes it optional for countries to share certain details about their carbon trading activities, including carbon projects’ risk of reversal. Participants work in the common area during COP29. Dominika Zarzycka / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images The agreed-upon texts “put a lot of weight on the shoulders of independent observers, researchers, the media, and the countries themselves to scrutinize the actions of countries engaging in Article 6.2,” said Jonathan Crook, a policy expert at Carbon Market Watch, in a statement. Crook observed that the complexity of Article 6 will likely hinder would-be watchdogs from holding countries accountable for trading low-quality credits. Last week, during the final days of COP29, an investigation from the Swiss nonprofit Alliance Sud highlighted the risks of nontransparency around Article 6.2’s carbon credits. It found that Switzerland’s agreement to offset its greenhouse gas emissions by selling clean-burning cookstoves to Ghana — facilitated by the pre-COP29 rules for Article 6.2 — was overestimating its climate benefits by up to 79 percent. But Alliance Sud was only able to discover this through Switzerland’s Freedom of Information Act; the project owner had initially refused to let the organization see an unredacted version of the project description, as well as the analysis used to calculate its emissions impact. “The project is as opaque as dense fog,” Alliance Sud said. It concluded that “the possibility of public scrutiny remains crucial to ensuring that carbon mitigation projects do not endanger implementation of the Paris Agreement.” With the Paris Agreement’s Article 6, some environmental advocates have found themselves in a tricky position. While they want to ensure the best outcome for its two market mechanisms, they also resent the fundamental idea of them. “I get why people are there working on the minutiae of the text,” said Doreen Stabinsky, a professor of global environmental politics at the College of the Atlantic in Maine. “But for me the bigger story that needs to be told is that carbon markets don’t actually stop climate change.”  Just this month, an article in the journal Nature Communications found that fewer than 16 percent of carbon credits from more than 2,000 projects analyzed represented “real emission reductions.” On top of these integrity issues, Stabinsky said carbon markets incentivize rich countries to offset their emissions by funding mitigation projects in the developing world, rather than undertaking the difficult but necessary work of decarbonizing their own economies. Lennon objected to the claim, often repeated at COP29, that carbon markets are a form of so-called “climate finance” — a term for much-needed funding for climate mitigation and adaptation in the developing world. An early draft of the COP29 agreement listed carbon markets as one of several types of climate finance that rich countries could funnel to poor countries.  “Carbon markets are not climate finance and should not be seen as climate finance,” she told Grist.  The explicit reference to carbon markets was struck from the final version of countries’ updated pledge to deliver $1.3 trillion to developing countries by 2035 — a main outcome of COP29. But the final agreement doesn’t prohibit countries from trying to use carbon markets to claim progress toward their financial obligations.  “The best-case outcome,” Lennon said, would be for the U.N. to eschew these markets altogether. A coalition of African environmental groups shared a similar sentiment during the final days of the COP29. According to the groups, carbon markets “don’t actually decrease emissions; they just shift them around.” For that reason, they see them as a tool of the developed world to make it seem as if it is taking climate action, even as it appropriates more of the planet’s “carbon budget” — the amount of climate pollution that countries can collectively emit while remaining within safe planetary boundaries. The groups “stand firmly against carbon markets, as we believe they can undermine the integrity of climate action and disproportionately impact developing nations,” they wrote. This story was originally published by Grist with the headline At COP29, new rules for carbon markets made them even more controversial on Nov 26, 2024.

Louisiana's Governor Raises Major Doubts About a Stalled $3 Billion Coastal Restoration Project

Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry is raising serious objections to a $3 billion project that has long been hailed key to restoring the state’s eroding coastline

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry raised serious objections Thursday to a $3 billion project long hailed as key to restoring the state's eroding coastline, decrying the growing cost and predicting dire harm to a coastal culture dependent on fishing, shrimping and oyster dredging.The Republican governor's remarks to a Senate committee in Baton Rouge were his most extensive — and most decisively negative — on the Mid-Barataria Sediment Diversion project since he took office in January. They come a month after federal authorities warned that money for the project channeled to the state by the federal government would have to be returned if the state could not provide a clear commitment to the plan.Landry stopped short of calling for an end to the project altogether but said a compromise must be reached with opponents of the project. The chair of the Senate Committee, Republican Sen. Pat Connick, said lawmakers would have to weigh the next move. The project would channel 75,000 cubic feet (2,100 cubic meters) of sediment per second from the Mississippi River into the nearby Barataria Basin in southeast Louisiana’s Plaquemines Parish to create between 20 to 40 square miles (52 to 104 square kilometers) of new land over five decades. It has drawn opposition from some in Plaquemines Parish and now Landry. “This project is going to break our culture,” Landry said, likening the projected damage to shrimp and oyster harvesters to the diminishing of the Cajun French language generations ago when southwest Louisiana school children were forced to speak nothing but English.Ground was broken on the project in August 2023, but state and federal litigation by various interests has stalled it. Landry's remarks added to doubts about its future, despite support from environmental groups.Supporters of the project, which is being funded from a settlement arising from BP's 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, quickly pushed back during and after Landry's committee testimony. “I really think, again, the proper course of action is to remain and build as properly permitted as already funded with BP oil spill dollars ... Every day that we wait and delay we’re costing the state more money," Rep. Joseph Orgeron, a Republican from Cut Off, told Landry. While Landry called the project experimental, Orgeron said other, smaller diversion projects have worked.“As we continue to lose wetlands to open water, that’s just less and less breeding grounds, less and less protection for all of our juvenile shrimp, crab, finfish, you name it,” Corey Miller, community engagement director with the nonprofit Pontchartrain Conservancy, said in an interview. “We have to figure out a way to reestablish that connection between the river and our estuaries in order to rebuild deltas to protect all of our communities.”The project was planned in response to a rapidly vanishing coastline caused by a variety of natural and man-made factors. Those include land subsidence, sea-level rise, the cutting of canals through coastal wetlands by oil and gas companies, and the artificial control of the Mississippi River via levee systems that protect populations from floods but also prevent the natural flow of water that would ordinarily deposit sediment and rebuild land. The conservation group Restore the Mississippi River Delta said Landry's remarks represent a “dramatic shift” in coastal restoration efforts: “Not building this project as designed, permitted and funded will put citizens and businesses at increased risk from future storms.”Landry said delays have pushed the Mid-Barataria project cost over the years from around $1.5 billion to more than $3 billion, and he predicted costs above $2.9 billion will have to be passed on to Louisiana taxpayers. Associated Press reporter Jack Brook in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, contributed to this story.Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See - Sept. 2024

9 minutes, $195: We tested a heli-taxi vs. an Uber to the airport

On a Blade helicopter, a one-way trip from Manhattan to John F. Kennedy International Airport runs $195.

On paper, the 16-mile commute between New York City and its biggest airport sounds like a cakewalk. But the reality of getting to John F. Kennedy International Airport is neither short nor sweet.At peak times, a cab from Manhattan can take an hour and costs $70 before surcharges, tip and tolls. With surge pricing, Uber fares can far exceed $100. For under $20, there’s the train, which can take anywhere between a half-hour and 75 minutes, depending on where you hop on.Or, if you really can’t wait, you could take a helicopter.Blade, a New York-based helicopter taxi service, promises to shuttle customers between the city and JFK (or Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey) in five minutes. Its base fare for a one-way trip is $195. No switching trains, no hurried cabbies — just smooth sailing over the gridlock below.Blade takes customers to airports and the Hamptons on Long Island by helicopter (or fancy bus), and it offers private jet charters in the region and beyond. Blade is also the largest dedicated air transporter of human organs in the United States, said CEO Rob Wiesenthal, who founded the company in 2014.While a $900 jaunt to the Hamptons is exponentially out of my price range, Blade’s airport service is less far-fetched.On a recent Sunday, before a late-afternoon flight from JFK to D.C., my cheapest Uber option from the Upper West Side was $146. For a comparable price (with a first-time-rider coupon), I could take back a half-hour of my time and pretend to be a character in “Succession.”To compare experiences, I sent my husband in an Uber while I tried Blade.The booking processLike Uber, booking a ride with Blade can be done quickly through its app or website. Unlike Uber, you can’t hail an affordable ride around-the-clock.Wiesenthal wouldn’t say how many flights Blade offers per day but said that during the week, “you can fly to Newark or Kennedy pretty much 12 hours a day.”The standard window for “by-the-seat” trips (vs. chartering the entire cabin) to JFK generally runs weekdays between 7 a.m. and 8 p.m., and from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m. on Sundays. There are no such flights on Saturdays.Customers can “crowdsource” flights that aren’t on the schedule. After requesting a specific time, Blade will open slots for the public to book; the more people who join in, the less it costs the original requester. Alternatively, you can book the entire aircraft for yourself and up to seven other guests, starting at $1,875.I booked my seat a couple days in advance — and still had limited options. The best one for my schedule left an hour before my Delta flight boarded and cost $265, which was $70 higher than the advertised base fare. Again, like Uber — or commercial airlines — the company practices dynamic pricing. The same trip during the week of Thanksgiving, for example, was $325.With my first-time-flier coupon registering a $50 discount, the total came to $215.The loungeBlade operates from three heliports across the city. My trip departed from Lounge West, located on the Hudson River near Hudson Yards.It’s a portable building like you’d find at a construction site, but it’s painted matte black (save a few white Blade logos). A black chain-link fence with privacy netting surrounds the tarmac, protecting the identity of the travelers beyond. Wiesenthal told me that 60 percent of customers use the airport shuttle for business travel; leisure travelers account for the rest — not only people who want to get out of Dodge fast, but also tourists who want one last sightseeing adventure.The company recommends arriving at least 15 minutes before takeoff; I got there with 20 to spare to enjoy the perks. A friendly receptionist checked me in, took my luggage and gave me a colored wristband to indicate my flight group. There was no metal detector or TSA staff to flag my liquids. Then I was free to enjoy the 1960s-themed lounge.The place felt designed with Instagram in mind. Andy Warhol prints, neon acrylic tables, mushroom lamps. The furniture — like tulip chairs and leather barstools — looked the part but felt flimsy, more Temu than TWA Hotel.While my husband texted from crawling Brooklyn traffic, I sat at the bar and ordered a glass of complimentary white wine. There was Acqua Panna water and packaged snacks such as a maple blueberry protein bar and “skinny dipped” dark-chocolate-covered almonds.The rideBlade has a reputation for being on time; my chopper-mate told me he’s taken the airport service 50 times and it had never been late before. But that afternoon we ran 15 minutes behind schedule.Air traffic can cause delays. So can weather. Blade will cancel flights if the weather is deemed unsafe or heavy turbulence is expected and will take you to the airport by car instead.It wasn’t clear why we were held up, but the staff apologized for the delay. Soon, a helicopter landed in front of the lounge window and our wristband group was called. We filed into a line by the door, were given instructions on how to board and were escorted to the aircraft. I must have missed dibs on the shotgun seat next to the pilot and was slotted in the main cabin with two other fliers.The ethical dilemmaThe helicopter took off after a quick safety briefing from the pilot, who was wearing a hoodie, and in seconds we were hovering over the city skyline.Every passenger had their phone out at some point to capture the splendor. It felt surreal and a little nauseating — mostly because I’m prone to motion sickness, but also metaphorically. As we descended, and the skyscrapers gave way to houses, I thought about the people living below. The helicopter was incredibly loud; it had to be annoying to hear us screech past.The luxury is controversial. Nonessential helicopter traffic has been increasing for years, and residents living under the flight paths are filing evermore noise complaints. The New York nonprofit Stop the Chop also cites high carbon emissions among its primary reasons for a push to ban nonessential flights over the region.“Taking a helicopter ride is definitely more environmentally damaging than an hour-long Uber ride,” Peter DeCarlo, an associate professor of environmental health and engineering at Johns Hopkins University who studies atmospheric air pollution, told me in an email.Blade says it plans to transition to cleaner, quieter electric vertical aircraft once they’re available in the coming years.There wasn’t much time for my guilt to fester; we were on the ground about nine minutes (not five) after liftoff.In addition to the potential for small delays, travelers should factor in that Blade can’t drop you off at the curb like a taxi. Once we landed on the JFK chopper tarmac, a Blade attendant wheeled our bags on a luggage trolley through a small lobby and out to a parking lot, where chauffeurs were waiting to drive us to our respective airport terminals.I hopped in an SUV but was told I could have paid to upgrade to a Mercedes-Maybach. Depending on airport traffic, the ride can add another five to 10 minutes to your ETA.The takeawayMy driver told me that celebrities, like musicians and National Basketball Association players, are fans of Blade. If it wasn’t for the noise and environmental concerns, I’d be a fan of Blade, too. (Okay, I didn’t love being queasy afterward, either.) Once the company goes electric and I win the lottery, maybe we’ll talk.In the end, my husband got the last laugh. Factoring in the 20 minutes it took me to get to the Blade helipad, my lounge time and the flight, he actually beat me to JFK in his hour-long Uber ride, arriving with enough padding to get some Shake Shack and relax.

‘Business as usual:’ Why the $27B ‘green bank’ could survive Trump

One of the Inflation Reduction Act’s most celebrated programs — a nationwide “green bank” to help fund climate projects that struggle to secure private-sector loans — has also been one of the most reviled by Republican lawmakers. Last October, House Republicans dogged the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency over…

One of the Inflation Reduction Act’s most celebrated programs — a nationwide ​“green bank” to help fund climate projects that struggle to secure private-sector loans — has also been one of the most reviled by Republican lawmakers. Last October, House Republicans dogged the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency over its management of the program, known as the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF), calling it a “$27 billion slush fund of taxpayer money.” In January, they accused the Biden administration of directing the money to ​“favored special interest organizations.” House Republicans have also seized on a report from the EPA’s Office of Inspector General stating that the speed at which the program was moving could lead to ​“waste, fraud, and abuse.” But the green bank program appears to be well positioned to survive the next four years, despite the fact that Republicans won control over Congress and the presidency earlier this month. That’s assuming the Trump administration follows the law and regulations that established the program, however — and in any case, the administration will still have opportunities to slow the program down. “As a Democrat, of course I’m disappointed” in the election results, Reed Hundt, head of the Coalition for Green Capital (CGC), one of the entities in charge of allocating green bank funds, told Canary Media. ​“But as the CEO of CGC, there’s no change at all in what we’re going to do. It’s completely and totally business as usual.” Hundt, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission chair during the Clinton administration, is a longtime champion of a national green bank. More than a decade of work on the concept paid off in 2022 with the inclusion of a green bank program in the landmark IRA climate law. The idea is to create a nationwide version of the government-backed and nonprofit green banks now operating in 17 states, offering low-cost loans for rooftop solar, efficiency retrofits, electric heat pumps, EV charging, and similar carbon-cutting projects. The law gave the EPA $27 billion to grant to states, tribes, nonprofit groups, and public-private consortiums. Those grantees, in turn, can lend or grant funds to projects and initiatives across the country — and bring in other private-sector lenders and financial backers to boost the impact of the money. In April, the EPA picked eight coalitions to receive a collective $20 billion of this green bank capital, including $5 billion for the CGC. That month, the EPA also picked 60 recipients for its $7 billion Solar for All program. And in August, the EPA announced it had ​“obligated the full $27 billion” of its GGRF funds to selected recipients. That means that CGC now has ​“a contract with the government that tells us and our network partners what we must do,” Hundt said. ​“We have the money, and we’re going to fulfill the contract.” Having these funds ​“obligated” is important, said Adam Fischer, vice president at Waxman Strategies, a Washington, D.C.–based policy and lobbying firm founded by Henry Waxman, a former Democratic U.S. House member. Under the statutory language of the IRA, once GGRF funds are obligated, ​“EPA is now under contract with all 68 awardees” across all of its programs, he said. “As such, any attempt by the incoming administration to claw back or otherwise upend disbursement of obligated funds would be a breach of contract,” said Fischer, who led development and drafting of the GGRF while working at the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce. ​“If they do try to meddle with contracts for unjustifiable reasons, they’ll face lawsuits.” That view was echoed by Michael Catanzaro, the CEO of CGCN Group, a Republican lobbying firm, and a former special assistant for domestic energy and environmental policy in the first Trump administration. “It’s going to be difficult, I think, for an EPA to come in and claw that back,” Catanzaro said during a November 14 panel discussion hosted by the law firm Norton Rose Fulbright. ​“I think you’re going to create some serious legal problems if you try to do that. […] EPA worked pretty diligently to get the money out the door, knowing that the election could go south on them.” The future of the green bank under Trump That’s not to say that the GGRF won’t face attacks from the Trump administration or the Republican-controlled Congress, however. The program has ​“been a long-standing target of House Republicans and Republicans generally in the Congress since the IRA was finalized and EPA began work to figure out where that money would go,” Catanzaro said. Though the Trump administration may not be able to outright eliminate the GGRF program, several people who spoke to Canary Media on condition of anonymity said that the EPA under Trump could take actions to disrupt it, such as refusing to approve loans made by recipients. Those actions could be legally challenged, they said — but those disputes would take time to play out, leaving financing from the program in an extended state of limbo. In the face of that risk, the program’s best defense may be its value to communities in Republican-dominated states and congressional districts.

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