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How do you save a rainforest? Leave it alone

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Saturday, November 16, 2024

Johnny Appleseed’s heart was in the right place when he walked all over the early United States planting fruit trees. Ecologically, though, he had room for improvement: To create truly dynamic ecosystems that host a lot of biodiversity, benefit local people, and produce lots of different foods, a forest needs a wide variety of species. Left on their own, some deforested areas can rebound surprisingly fast with minimal help from humans, sequestering loads of atmospheric carbon as they grow. New research from an international team of scientists, recently published in the journal Nature, finds that 830,000 square miles of deforested land in humid tropical regions — an area larger than Mexico — could regrow naturally if left on its own. Five countries — Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia — account for 52 percent of the estimated potential regrowth. According to the researchers, that would boost biodiversity, improve water quality and availability, and suck up 23.4 gigatons of carbon over the next three decades.  “A rainforest can spring up in one to three years — it can be brushy and hard to walk through,” said Matthew Fagan, a conservation scientist and geographer at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and a coauthor of the paper. “In five years, you can have a completely closed canopy that’s 20 feet high. I have walked in rainforests 80 feet high that are 10 to 15 years old. It just blows your mind.”  That sort of regrowth isn’t a given, though. First of all, humans would have to stop using the land for intensive agriculture — think big yields thanks to fertilizers and other chemicals — or raising hoards of cattle, the sheer weight of which compacts the soil and makes it hard for new plants to take root. Cows, of course, also tend to nosh on young plants.  Planting a bunch of the same species of tree — à la Johnny Appleseed — pales in comparison to a diverse rainforest that comes back naturally. Secondly, it helps for tropical soil to have a high carbon content to nourish plants. “Organic carbon, as any person who loves composting knows, really helps the soil to be nutritious and bulk itself up in terms of its ability to hold water,” Fagan said. “We found that places with soils like that are much more likely to have forests pop up.” And it’s also beneficial for a degraded area to be near a standing tropical forest. That way, birds can fly across the area, pooping out seeds they have eaten in the forest. And once those plants get established, other tree-dwelling animal species like monkeys can feast on their fruits and spread seeds, too. This initiates a self-reinforcing cycle of biodiversity, resulting in one of those 80-foot-tall forests that’s only a decade old.  The more biodiversity, the more a forest can withstand shocks. If one species disappears because of disease, for instance, another similar one might fill the void. That’s why planting a bunch of the same species of tree — à la Johnny Appleseed — pales in comparison to a diverse rainforest that comes back naturally.  “When you have that biodiversity in the system, it tends to be more functional in an ecological sense, and it tends to be more robust,” said Peter Roopnarine, a paleoecologist at the California Academy of Sciences, who studies the impact of the climate on ecosystems but wasn’t involved in the new paper. “Unless or until we can match that natural complexity, we’re always going to be a step behind what nature is doing.” Governments and nonprofits can now use the data gathered from this research to identify places to prioritize for cost-effective restoration, according to Brooke Williams, a research fellow at the University of Queensland and the paper’s lead author. “Importantly, our dataset doesn’t inform on where should and should not be restored,” she said, because that’s a question best left to local governments. One community, for instance, might rely on a crop that requires open spaces to grow. But if the locals can thrive with a regrown tropical forest — by, say, earning money from tourism and growing crops like coffee and cocoa within the canopy, a practice known as agroforestry — their government might pay them to leave the area alone.  Susan Cook-Patton, senior forest restoration scientist at the Nature Conservancy, said that more than 1,500 species have been used in agroforestry worldwide. “There’s a lot of fruit trees, for example, that people use, and trees that provide medicinal services,” Cook-Patton said. “Are there ways that we can help shift the agricultural production towards more trees and boost the carbon value, the biodiversity value, and livelihoods of the people living there?” The tricky bit here is that the world is warming and droughts are worsening, so a naturally regrowing forest may soon find itself in different circumstances. “We know the climate conditions are going to change, but there’s still uncertainty with some of that change, uncertainty in our climate projection models,” Roopnarine said. So while a forest is very much stationary, reforestation is, in a sense, a moving target for environmental groups and governments. A global goal known as the Bonn Challenge aims to restore 1.3 million square miles of degraded and deforested land by 2030. So far, more than 70 governments and organizations from 60 countries, including the United States, have signed on to contribute 810,000 square miles toward that target. Sequestering 23.4 gigatons of carbon over three decades may not sound like much in the context of humanity’s 37 gigatons of emissions every year. But these are just the forests in tropical regions. Protecting temperate forests and sea grasses would capture still more carbon, in addition to newfangled techniques like growing cyanobacteria. “This is one tool in a toolbox — it is not a silver bullet,” Fagan said. “It’s one of 40 bullets needed to fight climate change. But we need to use all available options.” This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/climate/save-rainforest-carbon-science-biodiversity/. Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org Read more about carbon capture and trees

Research shows that, instead of replanting rainforests, allowing them to bounce back naturally would work best

Johnny Appleseed’s heart was in the right place when he walked all over the early United States planting fruit trees. Ecologically, though, he had room for improvement: To create truly dynamic ecosystems that host a lot of biodiversity, benefit local people, and produce lots of different foods, a forest needs a wide variety of species. Left on their own, some deforested areas can rebound surprisingly fast with minimal help from humans, sequestering loads of atmospheric carbon as they grow.

New research from an international team of scientists, recently published in the journal Nature, finds that 830,000 square miles of deforested land in humid tropical regions — an area larger than Mexico — could regrow naturally if left on its own. Five countries — Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia — account for 52 percent of the estimated potential regrowth. According to the researchers, that would boost biodiversity, improve water quality and availability, and suck up 23.4 gigatons of carbon over the next three decades. 

“A rainforest can spring up in one to three years — it can be brushy and hard to walk through,” said Matthew Fagan, a conservation scientist and geographer at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and a coauthor of the paper. “In five years, you can have a completely closed canopy that’s 20 feet high. I have walked in rainforests 80 feet high that are 10 to 15 years old. It just blows your mind.” 

That sort of regrowth isn’t a given, though. First of all, humans would have to stop using the land for intensive agriculture — think big yields thanks to fertilizers and other chemicals — or raising hoards of cattle, the sheer weight of which compacts the soil and makes it hard for new plants to take root. Cows, of course, also tend to nosh on young plants. 

Planting a bunch of the same species of tree — à la Johnny Appleseed — pales in comparison to a diverse rainforest that comes back naturally.

Secondly, it helps for tropical soil to have a high carbon content to nourish plants. “Organic carbon, as any person who loves composting knows, really helps the soil to be nutritious and bulk itself up in terms of its ability to hold water,” Fagan said. “We found that places with soils like that are much more likely to have forests pop up.”

And it’s also beneficial for a degraded area to be near a standing tropical forest. That way, birds can fly across the area, pooping out seeds they have eaten in the forest. And once those plants get established, other tree-dwelling animal species like monkeys can feast on their fruits and spread seeds, too. This initiates a self-reinforcing cycle of biodiversity, resulting in one of those 80-foot-tall forests that’s only a decade old. 

The more biodiversity, the more a forest can withstand shocks. If one species disappears because of disease, for instance, another similar one might fill the void. That’s why planting a bunch of the same species of tree — à la Johnny Appleseed — pales in comparison to a diverse rainforest that comes back naturally. 

“When you have that biodiversity in the system, it tends to be more functional in an ecological sense, and it tends to be more robust,” said Peter Roopnarine, a paleoecologist at the California Academy of Sciences, who studies the impact of the climate on ecosystems but wasn’t involved in the new paper. “Unless or until we can match that natural complexity, we’re always going to be a step behind what nature is doing.”

Governments and nonprofits can now use the data gathered from this research to identify places to prioritize for cost-effective restoration, according to Brooke Williams, a research fellow at the University of Queensland and the paper’s lead author. “Importantly, our dataset doesn’t inform on where should and should not be restored,” she said, because that’s a question best left to local governments. One community, for instance, might rely on a crop that requires open spaces to grow. But if the locals can thrive with a regrown tropical forest — by, say, earning money from tourism and growing crops like coffee and cocoa within the canopy, a practice known as agroforestry — their government might pay them to leave the area alone. 

Susan Cook-Patton, senior forest restoration scientist at the Nature Conservancy, said that more than 1,500 species have been used in agroforestry worldwide. “There’s a lot of fruit trees, for example, that people use, and trees that provide medicinal services,” Cook-Patton said. “Are there ways that we can help shift the agricultural production towards more trees and boost the carbon value, the biodiversity value, and livelihoods of the people living there?”

The tricky bit here is that the world is warming and droughts are worsening, so a naturally regrowing forest may soon find itself in different circumstances. “We know the climate conditions are going to change, but there’s still uncertainty with some of that change, uncertainty in our climate projection models,” Roopnarine said.

So while a forest is very much stationary, reforestation is, in a sense, a moving target for environmental groups and governments. A global goal known as the Bonn Challenge aims to restore 1.3 million square miles of degraded and deforested land by 2030. So far, more than 70 governments and organizations from 60 countries, including the United States, have signed on to contribute 810,000 square miles toward that target.

Sequestering 23.4 gigatons of carbon over three decades may not sound like much in the context of humanity’s 37 gigatons of emissions every year. But these are just the forests in tropical regions. Protecting temperate forests and sea grasses would capture still more carbon, in addition to newfangled techniques like growing cyanobacteria. “This is one tool in a toolbox — it is not a silver bullet,” Fagan said. “It’s one of 40 bullets needed to fight climate change. But we need to use all available options.”

This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/climate/save-rainforest-carbon-science-biodiversity/.

Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org

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More Logging Is Proposed to Help Curb Wildfires in the US Pacific Northwest

U.S. officials are proposing increased logging on federal lands across the Pacific Northwest under changes to a sweeping forest management plan that’s been in place for three decades

U.S. officials would allow increased logging on federal lands across the Pacific Northwest in the name of fighting wildfires and boosting rural economies under proposed changes to a sweeping forest management plan that’s been in place for three decades.The U.S. Forest Service proposal, released Friday, would overhaul the Northwest Forest Plan that governs about 38,000 square miles (99,000 square kilometers) in Oregon, Washington and California.The plan was adopted in 1994 under President Bill Clinton amid pressure to curb destructive logging practices that resulted in widespread clearcuts and destroyed habitat used by spotted owls. Timber harvests dropped dramatically in subsequent years, spurring political backlash.But federal officials now say worsening wildfires due to climate change mean forests must be more actively managed to increase their resiliency. Increased logging also would provide a more predictable supply of trees for timber companies, officials said, helping rural economies that have suffered after lumber mills shut down and forestry jobs disappeared.The proposal could increase annual timber harvests by at least 33% and potentially more than 200%, according to a draft environmental study. The number of timber-related jobs would increase accordingly.Harvest volumes from the 17 national forests covered by the Northwest Forest Plan averaged about 445 million board feet annually over the past decade, according to government figures. Cutting more trees would help reduce wildfire risk and make communities safer, the study concluded. That would be accomplished in part by allowing cuts in some areas with stands of trees up to 120 years old — up from the current age threshold of 80 years.The change could help foster conditions conducive to growing larger, old growth trees that are more resistant to fire, by removing younger trees, officials said.A separate pending proposal from President Joe Biden's administration aims to increase protections nationwide for old growth trees, which play a significant role in storing climate change-inducing carbon dioxide.“Much has changed in society and science since the Northwest Forest Plan was created,” Jacque Buchanan, regional forester for the Forest Service’s Pacific Northwest Region, said in a statement. He said the proposal would help the agency adapt to shifting conditions, as global warming increases the frequency of droughts and other extreme weather events.The proposed plan also calls for closer cooperation between the Forest Service and Native American tribes to tap into tribal knowledge about forest management. Tribes were excluded when the 1994 plan was crafted.Environmentalists greeted the proposal with skepticism. The group Oregon Wild said it was “deeply troubling” that the Forest Service would release the proposal just ahead of a change in presidential administrations.“It appears that the Forest Service wants to abandon the fundamental purpose of the Northwest Forest Plan–protecting fish and wildlife and the mature and old-growth forests they need to survive,” John Persell, an attorney for the group, said in a statement.A draft environmental study examined several potential alternatives, including leaving the existing plan’s components in place or changing them to either reduce or increase logging. A timber industry representative who co-chaired an advisory committee on the Northwest Forest Plan said the proposed plan resulted from discussions involving committee members, the Forest Service and others.“We want to see a modern approach to federal forest stewardship that protects us from catastrophic wildfires, reduces toxic smoke, meaningfully engages tribes, and delivers for our rural communities and workers,” said Travis Joseph, president of the American Forest Resource Council.The publishing of the proposal begins a 120-day public comment period. The Forest Service's environmental review is expected to be completed by next fall and a final decision is due in early 2026.Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See - Sept. 2024

Whistleblower Sounds Alarm About Destruction of Tribal Sites in North Carolina

A career archaeologist with the U.S. Forest Service says managers have been engaging in irresponsible and illegal behavior that has resulted in damage to Native American sites across the forested slopes of North Carolina

Spear points, hammer stones and picks lost to history under layers of leaves, roots and rocks — it was the evidence Scott Ashcraft was looking for. The ancient tools were inadvertently unearthed in 2021 by a bulldozer fighting a wildfire along a steep slope in western North Carolina. Ashcraft, a career U.S. Forest Service archaeologist, knew these wooded mountainsides held more clues to early human history in the Appalachian Mountains than anyone had imagined.He tried for years to raise the alarm to forest managers, saying outdated modeling that ignored the artifacts sometimes hidden on steep terrain — especially sites significant to Native American tribes — needed to be reconsidered when planning for prescribed fires, logging projects, new recreational trails and other work on national forest lands. Instead, Ashcraft says managers retaliated against him and pushed ahead with their plans, often violating historic preservation and environmental protection laws by side stepping consultations with tribes, limiting input from state archaeologists and systematically suppressing scientific data.In a letter shared with The Associated Press, Ashcraft sent his concerns Thursday to top officials in the U.S. Forest Service, U.S. Interior Department, White House Council on Native American Affairs and National Congress of American Indians. He described an escalating pattern of illegal, unethical and irresponsible behavior by forest managers in North Carolina that stands in sharp contrast to the historic strides the Biden administration has made nationally to include Indigenous expertise when making decisions about public land management.Although the case focuses on a single state, Ashcraft said it highlights a bigger problem — that there are no guardrails to keep the Forest Service from using outdated modeling and skirting requirements to consult with tribes before moving ahead with projects.“It’s seems that project completion, feathers in caps and good performance evaluations have outweighed the protection of cultural resources,” Ashcraft told the AP in an interview.The letter is the latest salvo in a federal whistleblower case that began when Ashcraft filed a lengthy disclosure with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's inspector general in 2023. That office turned the case back to the Forest Service, where regional officials declared that legal requirements had been met.The whistleblower disclosure gained the attention of preservation experts and other researchers as hostility by forest managers mounted against Ashcraft, the heritage resources program manager for the Pisgah National Forest.Emails and other documents reviewed by the AP show many of Ashcraft's duties were reassigned to other employees and he was prohibited from communicating with tribes.Regional forest officials have not directly addressed allegations of retaliation against Ashcraft, but they have doubled down on promises to work with the dozen tribes that have ancestral connections to the Nantahala and Pisgah national forests.Nationally, the Biden administration has moved toward recognizing the connection Native Americans have to their homelands through the publication of action plans and guidance for dealing with sacred sites. In 2022, President Joe Biden issued a memo aimed at setting minimum standards for how agencies should carry out consultations with tribes.It appears that system broke down in North Carolina, said Valerie Grussing, the executive director of the National Association of Tribal Historic Preservation Officers. The group has been in discussions with tribes and top forest officials about violations there.“What’s happened at the forest unit and the regional level is egregious. It’s unconscionable,” she said. “It’s not just a breaking of the federal trust responsibility, but of established relationships.”James Melonas, supervisor of the four forests in North Carolina, said in a statement that an independent group of experts was tapped last year to review several projects to ensure compliance with federal laws and tribal consultation obligations after “an internal concern” was raised.The experts recommended more training for employees on the requirements of the National Historic Preservation Act and a full review of the forest heritage program. Regional forest officials said that internal review was done in May, confirming that obligations were met.“Honoring this rich tribal heritage along with co-stewardship of these lands with tribal nations is a top priority for the Forest Service," Melonas said.Some tribal officials say the Forest Service did not reach out to them when conducting the reviews.Ashcraft’s attorneys have partnered with the legal nonprofit Whistleblower Aid. They contend that Ashcraft has put his career on the line to bring attention to what they described as the “willful destruction of Native American heritage sites.”Andrew Bakaj, chief legal counsel for Whistleblower Aid, said virtually none of the key stakeholders with knowledge of the violations were interviewed as part of the agency's review and the report has been kept out of the public eye.The concerns raised by the whistleblower are not the first time the Forest Service has been accused of not following procedures. Documents obtained by the AP in 2016 revealed that portions of the Trail of Tears were ripped up in eastern Tennessee when an employee approved the construction of berms and trenches without authorization. The Forest Service later apologized to the Cherokee Nation and other tribes.Ashcraft has surveyed vast tracts of forest over his 31-year career. Without further investigation of steep slopes, he said the extent of the damage done in western North Carolina as a result of managers relying on outdated modeling can't be fully known.The whistleblower disclosure provides examples in which forest managers have allegedly tried to obstruct further archaeological investigations on steep slopes. It states that recreational trail projects – including a multimillion-dollar effort to expand hiking and biking networks east of Asheville -- have already been built over some areas and that prescribed burns have been implemented despite the need for more assessments and tribal consultation.“These actions are irreparably damaging or destroying an untold sum of Native American cultural and archeological sites including some of great significance. This conduct continues to this day,” Ashcraft warned in his letter.The intent isn't to stop work on forest lands, Ashcraft said, but rather to document sites before they're altered or reroute work in cases where areas are more sensitive and need protection.The Center for the Investigation of Native and Ancient Quarries has worked with Ashcraft and other scientists to uncover dozens of sites — many of which have a “surprising density” of Native American cultural materials and evidence of land use dating back thousands of years.Within the scar of the Seniard Creek Fire south of Asheville, they turned up stone axes and other tools used for digging at quartz and soapstone quarries — all examples of what researchers described as engineering feats by sophisticated societies that called this region home about 6,000 years ago."Here we are at higher elevations and steeper slopes with an absolutely magnificent resource eroding downslope,” said Philip LaPorta, executive director of the center and adjunct senior research scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.LaPorta said discoveries like the one near Asheville should make people think differently about how Indigenous people used steep landscapes.The whistleblower disclosure was shared with the Cherokee Nation, the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians, the Catawba Indian Nation, the Muscogee Nation and the United Keetoowah Band.The Eastern Band of Cherokee were hopeful about having more meaningful and frequent consultations with forest managers after the agency adopted a revised plan for the Nantahala and Pisgah National Forests in 2023. However, a specialist with the tribe said not much has changed. In his letter, Ashcraft wrote that the identification and preservation of Native American heritage sites goes beyond a single agency, tribe or whistleblower. "It concerns all of us,” he wrote. “Protection of these resources is a duty shared by actors across state and federal government, sovereign tribes as well as civil society. When one fails — spectacularly and in bad faith — it is up to the rest to step in.”For Native Americans, Grussing said it goes beyond the artifacts found in a particular spot. It's an intangible energy that comes from being connected to a place.“That's what is at stake," she said. "These are irreplaceable cultural resources and places. They’re nonrenewable.”Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Photos You Should See - Sept. 2024

Global carbon emissions inch upwards in 2024 despite progress on EVs, renewables and deforestation

As world leaders gather at COP29 to consider reducing emissions, the latest global carbon budget shows CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are still going up, not down, despite some promising signs.

Susan Santa Maria, ShutterstockCarbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase, year on year. This sobering reality will be presented to world leaders today at the international climate conference COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Our latest annual stocktake shows the world is on track to reach a new record: 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ emitted from fossil fuels in 2024. This is an increase of 0.8% from the previous year. Adopting renewable energy and electric vehicles is helping reduce emissions in 22 countries. But it’s not enough to compensate for ongoing global growth in fossil fuels. There were also signs in 2023 suggesting natural systems may struggle to capture and store as much CO₂ in the future as they have in the past. While humanity is tackling deforestation and the growth in fossil CO₂ emissions is slowing, the need to reach an immediate peak and decline in global emissions has never been so acute. The Global Carbon Project The Global Carbon Budget is an annual planetary account of carbon sources and sinks, which soak up carbon dioxide and remove it from the atmosphere. We include anthropogenic sources from human activities such as burning fossil fuels or making cement as well as natural sources such as bushfires. When it comes to CO₂ sinks, we consider all the ways carbon may be taken out of the atmosphere. This includes plants using CO₂ to grow and CO₂ being absorbed by the ocean. Some of this happens naturally and some is being actively encouraged by human activity. Putting all the available data on sources and sinks together each year is a huge international effort involving 86 research organisations, including Australia’s CSIRO. We also use computer models and statistical approaches to fill out the remaining months to the end of the year. Fossil fuel emissions up This year’s growth in carbon emissions from fossil fuels is mainly from fossil gas and oil, rather than coal. Fossil gas carbon emissions grew by 2.4%, signalling a return to the strong long-term growth rates observed before the COVID pandemic. Gas emissions grew in most large countries, but declined across the European Union. Oil carbon emissions grew by 0.9% overall, pushed up by a rise in emissions from international aviation and from India. The rebound in international air travel pushed aviation carbon emissions up 13.5% in 2024, although it’s still 3.5% below the pre-COVID 2019 level. Meanwhile, oil emissions from the United States and China are declining. It’s possible oil emissions have peaked in China, driven by growth in electric vehicles. Coal carbon emissions went up by 0.2%, with strong growth in India, small growth in China, a moderate decline in the US, and a large decline in the European Union. Coal use in the US is now at its lowest level in 120 years. The United Kingdom closed its last coal power plant in 2024, 142 years after the first one was opened. With strong growth in wind energy replacing coal, the UK CO₂ emissions have almost been cut in half since 1990. Changing land use Carbon emissions also come from land clearing and degradation. But some of that CO₂ can be taken up again by planting trees. So we need to examine both sources and sinks on land. Global net CO₂ emissions from land use change averaged 4.1 billion tonnes a year over the past decade (2014–23). This year is likely to be slightly higher than average with 4.2 billion tonnes, due to drought and fires in the Amazon. That amount represents about 10% of all emissions from human activities, the rest owing to fossil fuels. Importantly, total carbon emissions – the sum of fossil fuel emissions and land-use change emissions – have largely plateaued over the past decade, but are still projected to reach a record of just over 41 billion tonnes in 2024. The plateau in 2014–23 follows a decade of significant growth in total emissions of 2% per year on average between 2004 and 2013. This shows humanity is tackling deforestation and the growth of fossil CO₂ emissions is slowing. However, this is not enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory. Annual CO₂ emissions continue to increase, reaching a record high in 2024. The shaded area around each line shows the uncertainty in the estimates. Global Carbon Project, CC BY More countries are cutting emissions – but many more to go Fossil CO₂ emissions decreased in 22 countries as their economies grew. These countries are mainly from the European Union, along with the United States. Together they represent 23% of global fossil CO₂ emissions over the past decade (2014–23). This number is up from 18 countries during the previous decade (2004–13). New countries in this list include Norway, New Zealand and South Korea. In Norway, emissions from road transport declined as the share of electric vehicles in the passenger car fleet grew – the highest in the world at over 25% – and biofuels replaced fossil petrol and diesel. Even greater reductions in emissions have come from Norway’s oil and gas sector, where gas turbines on offshore platforms are being upgraded to electric. In New Zealand, emissions from the power sector are declining. Traditionally the country has had a high share of hydropower, supplemented with coal and natural gas. But now wind and particularly geothermal energy is driving fossil generation down. We are projecting further emissions growth of 0.2% in China, albeit small and with some uncertainty (including the possibility of no growth or even slight decline). China added more solar panels in 2023 than the US did in its entire history. Individual country emissions vary widely, but there are some signs of progress towards decarbonisation. Global Carbon Budget 2024/Global Carbon Project, CC BY-ND Nature shows troubling signs In the 1960s, our activities emitted an average of 16 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year globally. About half of these emissions (8 billion tonnes) were naturally removed from the atmosphere by forests and oceans. Over the past decade, emissions from human activities reached about 40 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year. Again, about half of these emissions (20 billion tonnes) were removed. In the absence of these natural sinks, current warming would already be well above 2°C. But there’s a limit to how much nature can help. In 2023, the carbon uptake on land dropped 28% from the decadal average. Global record temperatures, drought in the Amazon and unprecedented wildfires in the forests of Canada were to blame, along with an El Niño event. As climate change continues, with rising ocean temperatures and more climate extremes on land, we expect the CO₂ sinks to become less efficient. But for now, we expect last year’s land sink decline will recover to a large degree as the El Niño event has subsided. About half of the CO₂ emissions were removed from the atmosphere by forests and oceans. When we tally up all of the sources compared to the sinks, the budget should balance. We find a slight imbalance of 1.6Gt/year due to limitations of the data. Global Carbon Budget 2024/Global Carbon Project, CC BY Looking ahead Our latest carbon budget shows global fossil fuel emissions continue to increase, further delaying the peak in emissions. Global CO₂ emissions continue to track in the middle of the range of scenarios developed by the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We have yet to bend the emissions curve into the 1.5–2°C warming territory of the Paris Agreement. This comes at a time when it’s clear we need to be reducing emissions, to avoid worsening climate change. We also identified some positive signs, such as the rapid adoption of renewable energy and electric cars as they become cheaper and more accessible, supporting the march toward a net-zero emissions pathway. But turning these trends into global decarbonisation requires a far greater level of ambition and action. Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program - Climate Systems Hub. Corinne Le Quéré receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the UK Royal Society. She was granted a research donation by Schmidt Futures (project CALIPSO – Carbon Loss In Plants, Soils and Oceans). Corinne Le Quéré is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee. Her position here is her own and does not necessarily reflect that of the Committee. Glen Peters receives funding from the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme.Judith Hauck receives funding from the European Research Council (OceanPeak) and the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation program (OceanICU – Improving Carbon Understanding). The work reflects only the authors' view; the European Commission and their executive agency are not responsible for any use that may be made.Julia Pongratz receives funding from German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.Pierre Friedlingstein receives funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme Robbie Andrew receives funding from the Norwegian Environment Agency and the European Union's Horizon Europe.

Campaigners in Italy urge pope to stop ‘sacrifice’ of 200-year-old tree for Xmas

Twenty-nine-metre tall fir destined to be chopped down and transported to St Peter’s Square in the VaticanEnvironmental campaigners in Italy’s northern Trentino province have started a campaign to stop the felling of a 200-year-old fir tree intended to form the centrepiece of the Vatican’s Christmas decorations.The so-called “Green Giant” is 29 metres tall and is due to be chopped down next week in a forest in the Ledro valley before being transported to the Vatican and positioned in St Peter’s Square, where it will then be unveiled on 9 December. Continue reading...

Environmental campaigners in Italy’s northern Trentino province have started a campaign to stop the felling of a 200-year-old fir tree intended to form the centrepiece of the Vatican’s Christmas decorations.The so-called “Green Giant” is 29 metres tall and is due to be chopped down next week in a forest in the Ledro valley before being transported to the Vatican and positioned in St Peter’s Square, where it will then be unveiled on 9 December.The Vatican’s Christmas tree tradition began in 1982 and ever since then a fir is donated each year, either from a region in Italy or another European country. The gift is often a source of pride.But several environmental associations in Trentino are determined to foil this year’s plan. They have written an open letter to Pope Francis asking him to stop what they described as “a useless sacrifice”. Meanwhile, more than 40,000 people have signed a petition and residents in Ledro, a town with a population of about 600, are reportedly planning a road-block protest to prevent the tree’s passage to Rome.The letter reminded the pontiff, who often lambasts climate crisis deniers, that some of his encyclicals have focused on safeguarding the environment.“It is inconsistent to talk about fighting climate change and then perpetuate traditions like this, which require the elimination of such an ancient and symbolic tree,” the associations wrote.The petition’s appeal urged people to sign against “the purely consumerist practice” of using living trees “for mere advertising purposes and a few ridiculous selfies”.However, Renato Girardi, the mayor of Ledro, hit back, telling the Italian press that he hadn’t expected “such malice”.“They are ruining the Christmas festivities just for a plant,” he added. “We only want to donate a fir tree, and I would like to underline that if it wasn’t donated it would end up in a sawmill.”He added that the valley’s forests are managed in compliance with PEFC, the European Commission forestry certification system.“The fir tree that will be removed is part of one of the lots that must be felled for the correct cultivation of the forest,” he said.Girardi denied claims by the campaigners that 39 more trees would be torn down and dispatched to the Vatican to adorn the internal areas of the tiny city-state in an operation alleged to cost €60,000 (£50,000).“There is no shortage of inaccuracies [in their appeal],” Girardi told the online newspaper, il Dolomiti. “It is true that 40 trees will go towards the Vatican but only one will be cut down in the woods of the Ledro while the other 39 will be purchased from specialised nurseries, because the Holy See had expressed, from the beginning preferred Nordmann fir trees suitable for interiors because they do not lose their needles. These trees have another particular characteristic: they do not grow in Ledro.”The cost of chopping down and transporting the Green Giant was, in fact, €6,000, he said.A spokesperson for the Vatican did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

‘Like a Phoenix,’ A New Forest Emerges From the Destruction in Ukraine

Russia’s bombing of Kakhovka Dam in 2023 killed hundreds of people and tens of thousands of animals, but it’s also provided a potential ecological reset. The post ‘Like a Phoenix,’ A New Forest Emerges From the Destruction in Ukraine appeared first on The Revelator.

In the early hours of June 6, 2023, two large explosions reverberated across cities and small towns located on the banks of the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine. The Russian military had reportedly set off multiple bombs, destroying the three-kilometer-long Kakhovka Dam and draining its massive reservoir into nearby settlements. Water from the dam flooded the plains, killing hundreds of civilians and countless livestock, destroying farms, and displacing the residents of more than 37,000 homes. The bombing made headlines around the world. However, it’s the long-term impact of the attack on the local biodiversity that has scientists and experts concerned. In the weeks following the explosion, researchers from Ukrainian ministries and independent organizations carried out several assessments as best they could to the backdrop of the war. They found that the attack had flooded about 60,000 hectares (230 square miles) of forest in at least four national parks, threatening an estimated population of 20,000 animals and 10,000 birds. “Almost all aquatic vegetation had died, and much of the marine life had disappeared, including mollusks,” says Serhiiy Skoryk, director of Kamianska Sich National Park in Kherson, one of the regions affected. “Those that survived moved downstream,” says the scientist-turned-freedom fighter. The deluge also dislodged many landmines in the heavy conflict region, moving them downstream into farms and residential areas. The researchers found an equally deadly if less obvious threat: Industrial pollutants previously captured in the reservoir’s sediments had contaminated the flood zones and the Black Sea. Another report by the Ukrainian Scientific Center for Marine Ecology, published just months after the destruction of the dam, also showed high evidence of pollution in the Black Sea, including heavy metals such as copper, zinc, and arsenic compounds. “All that water from the reservoir contains contaminant particles, along with carcasses of the animals that died during the flood, most of which ended in the sea, which is now polluted,” says Oleksiy Vasyliuk, an environmental scientist from Ukraine who has been documenting the ecological impact of the war. One of the hardest hit groups of species was mussels, “filter feeders” who help purify water. With populations of these animals significantly reduced, Vasyliuk expresses worry that these pollutants could enter the human food chain. Satellite data shows the dramatic drying of the Kakhovka reservoir bottom that has been transforming the landscape in 2023-2024. Source: EOS Data Analytics The war has made an already bad situation for many species even worse. “Even before the war, the ecology of Ukraine was endangered, but the Russian invasion attacks have caused serious threats to Ukrainian biodiversity,” says Anastasia Drapaliuk, project coordinator at Tellus Conservation in Ukraine. In a paper for the Ukrainian Nature Conservation Group, Drapaliuk and other experts noted that wildlife across 5,000 square kilometers (1,930 square miles) faced catastrophic effects from the flood, including rare species of birds, mammals, reptiles, and insects. “Populations of some species were dealt a possibly greater blow in one day on June 6 than in the last 100 years,” they wrote. But amidst the destruction, something unexpected has emerged. Baby Forests “Despite the challenges, our colleagues have been making regular expeditions to the affected area,” says Vasyliuk. “Three months after the attack they were shocked to find vegetation and forests in part of the reservoir that was left dry after the dam collapse.” They documented a young willow forest making its way through the dry cracked soil left behind by the floods. “It was unbelievable; no one expected to see the greenery they found, or that such a thing could happen amidst these tragic events,” he adds, the thrill of the discovering still evident in his voice. Where they feared desertification, a thick forest of largely willow trees — Rumex aquaticus and Celtis occidentalis — some reaching as high as six meters, now occupies about 150,000 hectares (930 square miles) of land that had once been covered by the reservoir. New vegetation emerges. Photo: Serhiiy Skoryk Vasyliuk hypothesizes that despite the absence of fertile soil, the forest flourished because of the organic mass left behind by the lost animals and plants, including dead species such as the mollusks. “It is possible the organic particles from these mollusks and other materials fed and nourished the forests like fertilizers,” he says. “The entire mechanism [that led to the birth of a new forest] is yet to be studied, because what we found was a lot of cross-breaded seeds among indigenous trees.” Still, it seems a cause for celebration. “It was very great,” he says, adding that the forest was the “only good thing to happened since the Russian attacks have damaged much of the local environment.” Skoryk echoes that: “Nature was healing herself, and all we have to do is to not interfere and let her take charge. Like a phoenix, in the form of a new forest, was rising from this tragedy,” he says. Drapaliuk looks at the growth from a longer perspective. The way she sees it, the nature in the region has been given a bit of a reset: It’s simply reviving its original biodiversity, “Before the Soviet Union, this was a historically significant region, not just for the Cossacks [indigenous Ukrainian tribes] but also for the biodiversity. It was the wetlands, a place for many rare birds and animals,” she explains. Rebuild or Restore? This new forest is a rare positive development in an otherwise tragic situation, considering an estimated 298,000 hectares (1,150 square miles) of forest fires — 50 times more than the annual average — have been reported across Ukraine since the start of the since 2022, according to the by the Kyiv School of Economics. The report, which took stock of Ukraine’s economic losses as of this past January, calculated forest damages “at more than 82.9 million cubic meters of timber with an estimated value of $4.5 billion.” As a result, many Ukrainian environmentalists and scientists have appealed to the government to withhold any reconstruction of the dam. “When the dam was first built [during the Soviet era], the damage to the regional ecology, culture and heritage were not taken into consideration,” says Vasyliuk. “As a result, so much of the natural and historical significant biodiversity was impacted, such as the Great Meadows,” referring to the historic steppe terrain of Ukraine that was submerged under the reservoir when the dam was built. In the early 1950s the Soviet Union pushed for widespread industrialization. During this period, this region and many others were razed to make way for infrastructure such as the dam. “The dam increased the salinity of the land, affecting soil quality, and that should be one of the reasons to not rebuild it,” Vasyliuk argues. “We need to plan strategically for the future and make decisions that are good for Ukrainian and not just because the dam was already there and someone gave us money to rebuild it.” Toll on Scientific Study Overall, though, scientific research in the region has been severely restricted since the Russian invasion. “From what we can gather, about 30% of the previously protected areas, such as wetlands and Ramsay sites in Ukraine, are now active warzones or occupied territories,” says Drapaliuk, who presented findings on that damage last year in a webinar for the EUROPARC Foundation. The Dnipro delta, the mouth of the Dnieper River, is included in the Ramsar Convention’s list of protected areas of international importance. According data published this past February by the Ukrainian Ministry of Environmental Protection, about 812 protected areas, spread over 1 million square kilometers, have been affected by different types of military operations since the beginning of the war. “So much of the area has been mined (with explosive land mines) that it becomes dangerous to even study the region even after it is liberated,” Drapaliuk says, adding that lack of resources, financial and human, has considerably slowed down data collection. “The damage by the war has put a lot of pressure on our work,” she adds. “For those working in the national parks, it is difficult to even access basic needs such as vehicles, fuel, electricity and equipment since much of it was destroyed during the Russian attacks.” Then there’s the effect on people. “To care about a forest, you have to care about people who work for it,” Drapaliuk says. But persistent Russian bombing of the region has prevented any normalcy in the work and life of the locals. “A lot of people from this area, a lot of forest rangers, are now in the army, making it difficult to continue work on protection and conservation.” Indeed, the war has blurred the lines of duty for those like Skoryk, who went from being an environmentalist to a combatant to a prisoner of war. Just days after the invasion began in February 2022, Skoryk was taken prisoner by Russian forces who had entered Ukraine. He eventually escaped when his captors “got drunk on too much vodka.” He went on to assist with the liberation of the national park. Photo courtesy Serhiiy Skoryk. Drapaliuk urges international environmental groups to invest in preserving Ukraine’s biodiversity. Much of the aid flowing into Ukraine today is for military support, and issues such as ecological destruction tends to take a backseat. “Of course, we all understand the priority and urgency; our country needs military support,” she says. “But in my opinion, we also really need international help to protect the ecological sector.” Skoryk calls attention to demining efforts in the region, a task to which he is personally devoting his time. “Gradually, we are clearing the area of mine and explosives, but it is a vast land mass encompassing nearly 12,000 hectares, and complex undertaking,” he says. Experts also emphasized the need to build policies and plans, not just for wartime but also to be implemented after victory. “There is a lot we can’t do now [in terms of conservation] but we can prepare an action plan for territories under war or occupation. They can be established as new protected areas so that we are ready to save the biodiversity in those territories soon after liberation,” Drapaliuk says. “We can’t afford to waste time,” she adds. Scroll down to find our “Republish” button Previously in The Revelator: War Threatens Ukraine’s Unique Red Seaweed Fields. Here’s How Scientists Monitor Them From Afar The post ‘Like a Phoenix,’ A New Forest Emerges From the Destruction in Ukraine appeared first on The Revelator.

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