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For these California kids, the fight against climate change is personal

News Feed
Monday, September 9, 2024

Madigan Traversi’s world changed in the fall of 2017, but the forces responsible for her transformation had been brewing for a long time. Late at night on Oct. 8, her family received a robocall about an evacuation warning — not an order — as more than a dozen wildfires tore through eight Northern California counties at once. They decided to flee their Sonoma County home to be safe. Just 20 minutes later, the house and all their possessions burned to the ground. Traversi was 12 years old. When she started high school in 2019 and joined a climate activism group, she learned that uncharacteristically hot, dry and windy conditions helped fuel the Tubbs fire, which burned parts of Somona, Napa and Lake counties and caught people off guard. Twenty-two people died and more than 5,000 homes were destroyed. Entire neighborhoods were wiped out. Madigan Traversi, 19, holds up photos of her Santa Rosa home, which burned down during the 2017 Tubbs fire. (Josh Edelson / For The Times) “That was the first time I was able to associate climate change with this wildfire I had been directly affected by,” said Traversi, now a 19-year-old activist and sophomore at UC Berkeley who promotes efforts to strengthen mental health supports for young people who have suffered climate disasters. “That sparked my passion.”From staging protests to waging courtroom and legislative campaigns, a determined subset of California youths have been vocal in the fight against climate change. They’ve experienced firsthand an escalating drumbeat of environmental disasters — smog-choked air, extreme heat, searing drought, and devastating wildfires and floods — that unfold here season after season.Experts say that exposure to these dramatic manifestations of the climate crisis has the potential to aggravate mental health impacts, including depression and anxiety, and that children and adolescents are disproportionately vulnerable. For some, turning to activism is one way to cope.“It’s definitely been a way for me to combat these feelings of anxiety,” Traversi said. “Instead of feeling like there’s nothing I can do, I feel like I’m actively working to reverse this crisis.”Research has confirmed that worry and anxiety associated with climate change are on the rise among young people, said Susan Clayton, professor of psychology at the College of Wooster, southwest of Akron, Ohio. Clayton has written multiple studies about how climate change affects the mental health of children and teens, including a landmark report released last year by the American Psychological Assn. and the nonprofit organization ecoAmerica.“I would say one of the most striking things to me is the high level of concern and pessimism that you see around the world,” she said, referring to a 2021 survey of 10,000 young people in 10 countries, in which the majority of respondents said they feared for the future and that people had failed to take care of the planet.Clayton has been talking to young people for eight years, and she’s noticed that many of them now report personally experiencing the effects — including extreme weather and fast-moving wildfires — of a warming world.“These very tangible physical manifestations of climate change are things that people notice, and absolutely that makes it seem more real to them; therefore, it’s probably going to be more stressful,” she said. “One of the things about mental health is, it’s not just what you experience but how you interpret your experience that’s going to make a difference.”Clayton is careful to note that climate anxiety alone is not a mental health problem: it’s a normal reaction to a real crisis. But it can lead to problems like clinical anxiety and depression, depending on a person’s other sources of stress and coping mechanisms, she said. Charred Joshua trees fill the landscape six months after the York fire destroyed 93,000 acres in the Mojave National Preserve in July 2023. (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times) Young people, she added, are in some ways uniquely vulnerable. They’re dependent on adults — who, they believe, aren’t taking adequate action to address the crisis. That can aggravate feelings of powerlessness and contribute to psychological distress. Social support is a strong predictor of mental health, Clayton added.“It’s bad enough to be afraid and anxious, but if you feel other people are not afraid and anxious about the same things, it can be really alienating.”Research has further indicated that harsh and unpredictable environments, like those characterized by extreme heat, drought or storms, can impair social relationships and decision-making among adolescents, Clayton said. That can have long-term implications for both individuals and society, she said.“They might decide it’s not worth putting effort into planning their careers or saving money because they don’t know what the world will look like in 20 years,” she said.In some ways, Maryam is a typical 16-year-old. She likes reading, growing plants and spending time with her three cats — Bernie, Sanders and AOC. But it’s hard for her to picture her future.“I go to school, but what’s the point of a degree if I’m not going to be able to use it for that long?” she said. “And I love school, I love school so much. It’s like my favorite thing. But it’s kind of useless at this point.”The Orange County teenager used to look forward to an annual family trip among the tall trees at Big Basin Redwoods State Park. But four years ago, a massive lightning-sparked wildfire burned the campsite they frequented, along with the vast majority of the park. Another campsite Maryam used to visit with a youth camp in San Bernardino County also burned recently. Maryam is one of three young plaintiffs who sued the EPA. (Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times) In the eighth grade, she started an activism group at her middle school that put up educational posters about climate change around campus and staged a protest at Fullerton City Hall urging the City Council to pay more attention to climate disasters. She became involved with the Sunrise Movement, a nonprofit that advocates for political action around climate change, and Fridays for Future, an international movement of students who stage climate strikes. She also volunteers with the youth board of her mosque.And last year, Maryam was one of 18 California children to join a lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency alleging that it violated their constitutional rights by allowing pollution from burning fossil fuels to continue despite knowing the harms. (The Times is withholding the last names of the minors involved in that lawsuit at the request of their attorneys, who fear the children could be targeted due to the litigation’s high-profile nature.)A judge recently dismissed the action, ruling that the plaintiffs lacked legal standing because they did not show how the remedies they sought would mitigate those harms, but they amended and resubmitted their allegations.“All the fear I had, I fueled it into energy,” Maryam said. “I don’t really think we have a choice anymore, because the adults aren’t doing anything. And if we wish to be able to go to the beach in 10 years or take a hike ... ” she trailed off, choking back tears.Maya, another plaintiff in the lawsuit, was diagnosed with asthma in 2019, after a severe wildfire season that covered the floor of her school gym in Santa Monica with ash. The 18-year-old now has to use an inhaler when she plays soccer. While she had learned about climate change in school, she says teachers had told her everything would be fine if people took steps to reduce their carbon footprints, like recycling. That summer of smoke convinced her the crisis was more dire than she’d thought. She began to suffer crippling anxiety and started seeing a therapist. Maya, one of the plaintiffs who sued the EPA, organizes for Youth Climate Strike Los Angeles. (Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times) She also turned to collective action, first by joining her school’s Human Rights Watch student task force chapter, and then by volunteering with a club that successfully advocated for the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District to switch to 100% renewable energy and for its school board to adopt a climate literacy resolution directing staff to integrate climate lessons into the curriculum. She now organizes with Youth Climate Strike Los Angeles, whose members have rallied outside City Hall and dressed up in Squid Game costumes to stage a die-in at the L.A. Auto Show. Maya wore blue overalls as a nod to Hyundai workers and in particular, child laborers, she said; the U.S. Department of Labor recently sued Hyundai over the use of child labor in Alabama.“There’s a tremendous amount of pressure on youth right now because we will be the ones that, at the end of the day, will be suffering the consequences. Our future is at stake,” she said. “I’m definitely terrified — I’m not going to lie. I think every day we inch closer to a tipping point and the point of no return. But I’m also very hopeful, and I try to be more hopeful than terrified.” Avroh, another of the plaintiffs in the EPA suit, volunteers with multiple groups, including the Palo Alto Student Climate Coalition. (Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times) Avroh, 15, another party to the lawsuit, developed severe nosebleeds after a string of bad fire seasons that began when he was in the fourth grade. He had a blood vessel cauterized in his nose and began checking the air quality each morning to see if it was safe to go outside.In late 2022, much of California swung wildly from drought to deluge. There were times the Palo Alto teen couldn’t leave his house because water would flood in if he opened the door. Last year, his school had to evacuate twice due to rain.“So at that, I was like ‘OK, this is getting really bad,’” he said. “It’s not climate change in the future. It’s climate change now.”Like the other teens, Avroh has found an outlet in activism. When he was 8, he started a club at his school that organized weekend cleanups on campus and at a nearby park. He now volunteers with multiple groups, including the Palo Alto Student Climate Coalition, which urges people to lower their carbon footprints, organizes climate literacy presentations and meets with elected officials. “I really don’t enjoy this,” he said. “I’d rather be playing soccer or something. But instead, here I am, suing the Environmental Protection Agency.”Climate change is a global crisis, but some communities are particularly vulnerable to its health effects. Legacies of redlining and racially restrictive covenants mean that low-income and nonwhite residents are disproportionately concentrated in these areas, which tend to have higher risk exposure to flooding, storm damage and large wildfires; more oil and gas wells; and less tree cover to mitigate extreme heat.These dynamics inspired Sam Adeyeye to become a climate activist in the seventh grade. He wanted to stop a terminal for exporting coal that was planned in West Oakland, where many of his family members and friends lived. Adeyeye knew a lot of people with asthma who already were breathing some of the most polluted air in the Bay Area, made worse by stifling heat waves that have grown longer and more intense.“Me preventing that would help them in the long run, would cause less asthma rates in West Oakland,” said Adeyeye, who is now a 17-year-old incoming freshman at UCLA and an organizer with Youth Vs Apocalypse, a climate justice organization that grew out of the campaign against the coal terminal. “And it would be inequitable for it to be there in the first place.”After years of petitions, protests and legal wrangling, a judge recently green-lit the terminal, although the project remains on pause as the city of Oakland appeals. Adeyeye is now campaigning for the California State Teachers Retirement System to divest from fossil fuels, including by drumming up support for a bill that would achieve that goal.“I come from a low-income community, so I want my conditions to improve — not only for myself but for the people that are younger, the newer generation that’s coming in, so they won’t have to go through what I’ve gone through,” he said.“What makes me want to change the world is I know what it looks like for the world, for me, to be bad,” he added.Traversi first coped with the trauma of losing her home by not really thinking about it. But when she turned 16 and got her driver’s license, she began to regularly drive back to the burned lot to journal and grieve. She started to have vivid memories of the night of the fire, recalling how her mother sang Prince songs in the car to try to keep her calm as they sped away. And she realized she’d never fully processed the event.“I think I’m processing a lot to this day,” she said, recalling how PTSD symptoms reemerged when she and her mother moved into a new house this past January. Santa Rosa’s Journey’s End Trailer Park stands in ruin in November 2017. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times) In high school, Traversi joined a grassroots organization called Schools for Climate Action that was formed in the aftermath of the Tubbs fire and advocates for local school boards to pass climate resolutions. Together with fellow activist Giselle Perez, she co-wrote a U.S. House resolution raising awareness about youth climate anxiety and calling for more funding to support related resources.Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena), who introduced the measure, said it was an honor working with Traversi to craft it. “As climate-related disasters become more common, Madigan has stepped up as a young leader to help shine a spotlight on the climate anxiety gripping so many of her peers,” he said in a statement.“Activism has been a really healing outlet, because I’m able to see tangible change,” said Traversi, who is now studying rhetoric and theater and performance studies and serves on the advisory board of a group called the Climate Mental Health Network, which does outreach about the mental health impacts of climate change.She insists that her experience, while dramatic, is not particularly unique. Virtually every person in her age group she’s spoken to has confided that they’re afraid they may die from the effects of climate change, or that they’re reluctant to consider having children in the future, she said.“People really are experiencing the effects of climate change in that extreme of a way,” she said. “And I don’t know that anyone is not experiencing it at this point.”

From protests to court and legislative campaigns, California youths have been loud voices against climate change. They've experienced environmental disasters firsthand.

Madigan Traversi’s world changed in the fall of 2017, but the forces responsible for her transformation had been brewing for a long time.

Late at night on Oct. 8, her family received a robocall about an evacuation warning — not an order — as more than a dozen wildfires tore through eight Northern California counties at once. They decided to flee their Sonoma County home to be safe. Just 20 minutes later, the house and all their possessions burned to the ground. Traversi was 12 years old.

When she started high school in 2019 and joined a climate activism group, she learned that uncharacteristically hot, dry and windy conditions helped fuel the Tubbs fire, which burned parts of Somona, Napa and Lake counties and caught people off guard. Twenty-two people died and more than 5,000 homes were destroyed. Entire neighborhoods were wiped out.

A young woman holds photos of a  fire-gutted home in each hand.

Madigan Traversi, 19, holds up photos of her Santa Rosa home, which burned down during the 2017 Tubbs fire.

(Josh Edelson / For The Times)

“That was the first time I was able to associate climate change with this wildfire I had been directly affected by,” said Traversi, now a 19-year-old activist and sophomore at UC Berkeley who promotes efforts to strengthen mental health supports for young people who have suffered climate disasters. “That sparked my passion.”

From staging protests to waging courtroom and legislative campaigns, a determined subset of California youths have been vocal in the fight against climate change. They’ve experienced firsthand an escalating drumbeat of environmental disasters — smog-choked air, extreme heat, searing drought, and devastating wildfires and floods — that unfold here season after season.

Experts say that exposure to these dramatic manifestations of the climate crisis has the potential to aggravate mental health impacts, including depression and anxiety, and that children and adolescents are disproportionately vulnerable. For some, turning to activism is one way to cope.

“It’s definitely been a way for me to combat these feelings of anxiety,” Traversi said. “Instead of feeling like there’s nothing I can do, I feel like I’m actively working to reverse this crisis.”

Research has confirmed that worry and anxiety associated with climate change are on the rise among young people, said Susan Clayton, professor of psychology at the College of Wooster, southwest of Akron, Ohio. Clayton has written multiple studies about how climate change affects the mental health of children and teens, including a landmark report released last year by the American Psychological Assn. and the nonprofit organization ecoAmerica.

“I would say one of the most striking things to me is the high level of concern and pessimism that you see around the world,” she said, referring to a 2021 survey of 10,000 young people in 10 countries, in which the majority of respondents said they feared for the future and that people had failed to take care of the planet.

Clayton has been talking to young people for eight years, and she’s noticed that many of them now report personally experiencing the effects — including extreme weather and fast-moving wildfires — of a warming world.

“These very tangible physical manifestations of climate change are things that people notice, and absolutely that makes it seem more real to them; therefore, it’s probably going to be more stressful,” she said. “One of the things about mental health is, it’s not just what you experience but how you interpret your experience that’s going to make a difference.”

Clayton is careful to note that climate anxiety alone is not a mental health problem: it’s a normal reaction to a real crisis. But it can lead to problems like clinical anxiety and depression, depending on a person’s other sources of stress and coping mechanisms, she said.

Blackened Joshua trees in a desert landscape of rolling hills.

Charred Joshua trees fill the landscape six months after the York fire destroyed 93,000 acres in the Mojave National Preserve in July 2023.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

Young people, she added, are in some ways uniquely vulnerable. They’re dependent on adults — who, they believe, aren’t taking adequate action to address the crisis. That can aggravate feelings of powerlessness and contribute to psychological distress. Social support is a strong predictor of mental health, Clayton added.

“It’s bad enough to be afraid and anxious, but if you feel other people are not afraid and anxious about the same things, it can be really alienating.”

Research has further indicated that harsh and unpredictable environments, like those characterized by extreme heat, drought or storms, can impair social relationships and decision-making among adolescents, Clayton said. That can have long-term implications for both individuals and society, she said.

“They might decide it’s not worth putting effort into planning their careers or saving money because they don’t know what the world will look like in 20 years,” she said.

In some ways, Maryam is a typical 16-year-old. She likes reading, growing plants and spending time with her three cats — Bernie, Sanders and AOC. But it’s hard for her to picture her future.

“I go to school, but what’s the point of a degree if I’m not going to be able to use it for that long?” she said. “And I love school, I love school so much. It’s like my favorite thing. But it’s kind of useless at this point.”

The Orange County teenager used to look forward to an annual family trip among the tall trees at Big Basin Redwoods State Park. But four years ago, a massive lightning-sparked wildfire burned the campsite they frequented, along with the vast majority of the park. Another campsite Maryam used to visit with a youth camp in San Bernardino County also burned recently.

A girl in her late teens.

Maryam is one of three young plaintiffs who sued the EPA.

(Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)

In the eighth grade, she started an activism group at her middle school that put up educational posters about climate change around campus and staged a protest at Fullerton City Hall urging the City Council to pay more attention to climate disasters. She became involved with the Sunrise Movement, a nonprofit that advocates for political action around climate change, and Fridays for Future, an international movement of students who stage climate strikes. She also volunteers with the youth board of her mosque.

And last year, Maryam was one of 18 California children to join a lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency alleging that it violated their constitutional rights by allowing pollution from burning fossil fuels to continue despite knowing the harms. (The Times is withholding the last names of the minors involved in that lawsuit at the request of their attorneys, who fear the children could be targeted due to the litigation’s high-profile nature.)

A judge recently dismissed the action, ruling that the plaintiffs lacked legal standing because they did not show how the remedies they sought would mitigate those harms, but they amended and resubmitted their allegations.

“All the fear I had, I fueled it into energy,” Maryam said. “I don’t really think we have a choice anymore, because the adults aren’t doing anything. And if we wish to be able to go to the beach in 10 years or take a hike ... ” she trailed off, choking back tears.

Maya, another plaintiff in the lawsuit, was diagnosed with asthma in 2019, after a severe wildfire season that covered the floor of her school gym in Santa Monica with ash. The 18-year-old now has to use an inhaler when she plays soccer.

While she had learned about climate change in school, she says teachers had told her everything would be fine if people took steps to reduce their carbon footprints, like recycling. That summer of smoke convinced her the crisis was more dire than she’d thought. She began to suffer crippling anxiety and started seeing a therapist.

A girl in her late teens.

Maya, one of the plaintiffs who sued the EPA, organizes for Youth Climate Strike Los Angeles.

(Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)

She also turned to collective action, first by joining her school’s Human Rights Watch student task force chapter, and then by volunteering with a club that successfully advocated for the Santa Monica-Malibu Unified School District to switch to 100% renewable energy and for its school board to adopt a climate literacy resolution directing staff to integrate climate lessons into the curriculum.

She now organizes with Youth Climate Strike Los Angeles, whose members have rallied outside City Hall and dressed up in Squid Game costumes to stage a die-in at the L.A. Auto Show. Maya wore blue overalls as a nod to Hyundai workers and in particular, child laborers, she said; the U.S. Department of Labor recently sued Hyundai over the use of child labor in Alabama.

“There’s a tremendous amount of pressure on youth right now because we will be the ones that, at the end of the day, will be suffering the consequences. Our future is at stake,” she said. “I’m definitely terrified — I’m not going to lie. I think every day we inch closer to a tipping point and the point of no return. But I’m also very hopeful, and I try to be more hopeful than terrified.”

A young man in his teens.

Avroh, another of the plaintiffs in the EPA suit, volunteers with multiple groups, including the Palo Alto Student Climate Coalition.

(Dania Maxwell / Los Angeles Times)

Avroh, 15, another party to the lawsuit, developed severe nosebleeds after a string of bad fire seasons that began when he was in the fourth grade. He had a blood vessel cauterized in his nose and began checking the air quality each morning to see if it was safe to go outside.

In late 2022, much of California swung wildly from drought to deluge. There were times the Palo Alto teen couldn’t leave his house because water would flood in if he opened the door. Last year, his school had to evacuate twice due to rain.

“So at that, I was like ‘OK, this is getting really bad,’” he said. “It’s not climate change in the future. It’s climate change now.”

Like the other teens, Avroh has found an outlet in activism. When he was 8, he started a club at his school that organized weekend cleanups on campus and at a nearby park. He now volunteers with multiple groups, including the Palo Alto Student Climate Coalition, which urges people to lower their carbon footprints, organizes climate literacy presentations and meets with elected officials.

“I really don’t enjoy this,” he said. “I’d rather be playing soccer or something. But instead, here I am, suing the Environmental Protection Agency.”

Climate change is a global crisis, but some communities are particularly vulnerable to its health effects. Legacies of redlining and racially restrictive covenants mean that low-income and nonwhite residents are disproportionately concentrated in these areas, which tend to have higher risk exposure to flooding, storm damage and large wildfires; more oil and gas wells; and less tree cover to mitigate extreme heat.

These dynamics inspired Sam Adeyeye to become a climate activist in the seventh grade. He wanted to stop a terminal for exporting coal that was planned in West Oakland, where many of his family members and friends lived. Adeyeye knew a lot of people with asthma who already were breathing some of the most polluted air in the Bay Area, made worse by stifling heat waves that have grown longer and more intense.

“Me preventing that would help them in the long run, would cause less asthma rates in West Oakland,” said Adeyeye, who is now a 17-year-old incoming freshman at UCLA and an organizer with Youth Vs Apocalypse, a climate justice organization that grew out of the campaign against the coal terminal. “And it would be inequitable for it to be there in the first place.”

After years of petitions, protests and legal wrangling, a judge recently green-lit the terminal, although the project remains on pause as the city of Oakland appeals. Adeyeye is now campaigning for the California State Teachers Retirement System to divest from fossil fuels, including by drumming up support for a bill that would achieve that goal.

“I come from a low-income community, so I want my conditions to improve — not only for myself but for the people that are younger, the newer generation that’s coming in, so they won’t have to go through what I’ve gone through,” he said.

“What makes me want to change the world is I know what it looks like for the world, for me, to be bad,” he added.

Traversi first coped with the trauma of losing her home by not really thinking about it. But when she turned 16 and got her driver’s license, she began to regularly drive back to the burned lot to journal and grieve. She started to have vivid memories of the night of the fire, recalling how her mother sang Prince songs in the car to try to keep her calm as they sped away. And she realized she’d never fully processed the event.

“I think I’m processing a lot to this day,” she said, recalling how PTSD symptoms reemerged when she and her mother moved into a new house this past January.

Burned debris covers most of a trailer park hit by fire.

Santa Rosa’s Journey’s End Trailer Park stands in ruin in November 2017.

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

In high school, Traversi joined a grassroots organization called Schools for Climate Action that was formed in the aftermath of the Tubbs fire and advocates for local school boards to pass climate resolutions. Together with fellow activist Giselle Perez, she co-wrote a U.S. House resolution raising awareness about youth climate anxiety and calling for more funding to support related resources.

Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena), who introduced the measure, said it was an honor working with Traversi to craft it. “As climate-related disasters become more common, Madigan has stepped up as a young leader to help shine a spotlight on the climate anxiety gripping so many of her peers,” he said in a statement.

“Activism has been a really healing outlet, because I’m able to see tangible change,” said Traversi, who is now studying rhetoric and theater and performance studies and serves on the advisory board of a group called the Climate Mental Health Network, which does outreach about the mental health impacts of climate change.

She insists that her experience, while dramatic, is not particularly unique. Virtually every person in her age group she’s spoken to has confided that they’re afraid they may die from the effects of climate change, or that they’re reluctant to consider having children in the future, she said.

“People really are experiencing the effects of climate change in that extreme of a way,” she said. “And I don’t know that anyone is not experiencing it at this point.”

Read the full story here.
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2024 was the hottest year on record, NASA and NOAA confirm

Weather organizations from around the world agree that the planet's average global surface temperature in 2024 could well have passed a crucial threshold meant to limit the worst effects of climate change.

Amid a week of horrifying wildfires in Los Angeles, government agencies in the U.S. and around the world confirmed Friday that 2024 was the planet’s hottest year since recordkeeping began in 1880.It’s the 11th consecutive year in which a new heat record has been set, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said. “Between record-breaking temperatures and wildfires currently threatening our centers and workforce in California, it has never been more important to understand our changing planet,” Nelson said.Firefighters on Friday were battling to protect NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge from the Eaton fire, which has burned 13,690 acres and roughly 5,000 buildings thus far.Research has shown that global warming is contributing significantly to larger and more intense wildfires in the western U.S. in recent years, and to longer fire seasons.The devastating fires in Southern California erupted after an abrupt shift from wet weather to extremely dry weather, a bout of climate “whiplash” that scientists say increased wildfire risks. Research has shown that these rapid wet-to-dry and dry-to-wet swings, which can worsen wildfires, flooding and other hazards, are growing more frequent and intense because of rising global temperatures.Extreme weather events in 2024 included Hurricane Helene in the southeastern U.S., devastating floods in Valencia, Spain, and a deadly heat wave in Mexico so intense that monkeys dropped dead from the trees, noted Russell Vose, chief of the monitoring and assessment branch of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.“We aren’t saying any of these things were caused by changes in Earth’s climate,” Vose said. But since warmer air holds more moisture, the higher temperatures “could have exacerbated some events this year.”Last year’s data also notes a step toward a major climate threshold. Keeping the average global surface temperature from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels has long been seen as necessary to avoid many of the most harrowing climate impacts.NOAA pegged 2024’s global average surface temperature at 1.46 degrees C above its preindustrial baseline, and NASA’s measurements put the increase at 1.47 degrees C. In 2023, NASA said the temperature was 1.36 degrees C higher than the baseline. Considering the margin of error in their measurements, “that puts the NOAA and NASA models comfortably within the possibility that the real number is 1.5 degrees,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.Calculations from other organizations passed the 1.5-degree mark more clearly.Berkeley Earth and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service both said the planet warmed to slightly more than 1.6 degrees C above pre-industrial times in 2024. The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization said the increase was 1.55 degrees C and the U.K. Met Office, the country’s weather service, measured an increase of 1.53 degrees C.Although 2024 probably marks the first calendar year in which the average temperature exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold, it doesn’t mean Earth has passed the crucial target set in the Paris Agreement, Vose said.That describes “a sustained, multi-decade increase of 1.5 degrees,” something that’s not expected to occur until the 2030s or 2040s, the scientists noted.“For a long time, the global mean temperature changes were a bit of an esoteric thing — nobody lives in the global mean,” Schmidt said. “But the signal is now so large that you’re not only seeing it at the global scale … you’re seeing it at the local level.”“This is now quite personal,” he said.The oceans, which store 90% of the planet’s excess heat, also recorded their highest average temperature since records began in 1955.The Arctic has seen the most warming, which is concerning because the region is home to vast quantities of ice that stands to melt and raise sea levels, Schmidt said. Temperatures there are rising 3 to 3.5 times faster than the overall global average, he added.The only place where average surface temperatures have cooled is the area immediately around Antarctica, and that’s probably due to meltwater from shrinking ice sheets, Schmidt said.A year ago, NOAA predicted there was only a 1 in 3 chance that 2024 would break the record set in 2023, Vose said. Then every month from January to July set a new high, and August was a tie. As a result, Friday’s declaration came as little surprise.The longer-term trends are no better.“We anticipate future global warming as long as we are emitting greenhouse gases,” Schmidt said. “That’s something that brings us no joy to tell people, but unfortunately that’s the case.”Times staff writer Ian James contributed to this report.

How Climate Change Fueled Deadly Los Angeles Fires

A whipsaw swing from very wet to very dry weather exposed millions to flames, smoke and pollutants. The post How Climate Change Fueled Deadly Los Angeles Fires appeared first on .

As unusually strong winds swept across a parched Los Angeles, spreading more than half a dozen firestorms that have now burned an area nearly the size of San Francisco, the fingerprints of climate change were all over the unfolding disaster. The underlying dynamic feeding the flames was a wet-and-dry whiplash in which vegetation, supercharged by heavy rain, dried out and became fuel for fires that left the city all but encircled in flames. It was not difficult for climate experts to connect the dots. Greenhouse gases, mostly from burning fossil fuels, linger in the atmosphere where they heat up the planet, leading to more to extreme weather. A hotter atmosphere holds more moisture, causing rain to fall in intense bursts. The hotter air also increases extreme temperatures and makes dry seasons drier by increasing evaporation.   In Pasadena, a California city on the edge of a major fire burning through Eaton Canyon, where researchers have collected data on precipitation since 1893, they recorded that half of its 20 rainiest days ever occurred since 2000. That includes one day last February when nearly 5 inches of rain fell.  Yet not a single drop has fallen in Pasadena and much of Los Angeles County since early May, according to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. All the vegetation that grew during the rains in the first half of the year dried out when the rains stopped, transforming Southern California into a vast landscape of tinder that exploded this week.  The intensity of extreme precipitation will continue rising through the century, according to Cal-Adapt, a data analysis initiative sponsored by the California Energy Commission. The state also forecast longer periods of drought exacerbated by rising heat, according to its Fourth Climate Assessment summary report, released in 2018 and currently being updated. These two factors will likely increase the wet-dry cycle, fueling more intense and erratic wildfires, say climate experts. In 2021, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded that drier air due to climate change was the “dominant” cause of variations in wildfire behavior in the West. The effect of the current fires on Los Angeles’ massive population will present researchers with a grim opportunity to study how wildfires can affect large numbers of people in a short period of time. Among the effects is the release of fine particles, called PM2.5, a pollutant that is found in wildfire smoke and that can find its way  into the lungs and bloodstream of those exposed to the smoke. Exposure can lead to decreased lung function, nonfatal heart attacks and death in people with heart or lung disease, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Shahir Masri, associate specialist in air pollution exposure assessment and epidemiology in the University of California, Irvine’s Department of Environmental & Occupational Health, studies climate change modeling and air pollution exposure. He published a study in 2022 that linked rising PM2.5 levels in California to wildfires and, to a lesser extent, heat waves. His previous work found that the number of census tracts in California that experienced major wildfires nearly doubled from 2000 to 2020. Capital & Main spoke to Masri about his work as the fires in L.A. County continued to burn. This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity. Capital & Main: Could you describe how climate change is making wildfires worse? Shahir Masri: It’s a variety of factors linked with climate change. Increasing temperatures and aridity in places like the Western U.S, and in more mountainous areas, you can have earlier snowmelt, which leaves downstream riparian areas desiccated and more fire-prone.  But you also have these earlier spring onsets, which generally speaking means an earlier arrival of spring and warm temperatures. You basically get longer warm summer windows, which has ultimately become a longer wildfire season. Landscapes are drying out more quickly, and the wildfire season begins more quickly and ends later. [The Southern California fires] remind me of 2017-’18, the Thomas fire, which burned from December through Jan. 8.  Shahir Fouad Masri. Photo courtesy Dr. Masri. So these later-burning fires are becoming more frequent. And when you add unprecedented heat waves on top of it, you get yet another scenario where you’re setting the stage for a major wildfire. In 2018, we saw a major wildfire season. The following year, we saw a major rainy season. Then in 2020, we saw the biggest wildfire season in the state’s history. That was a combination of huge growth in 2019 of shrubs and plants and a lot of things in the wet seasons, then the following year we got slammed with aggressively oppressive summer heat.  I fear some of this may have been at play in these fires. The last few years we’ve had really wet winters, and this is now the driest winter we’ve seen in a while. We didn’t get our holiday rain. This area burning now would have been much more resistant to a fire breaking out if we had that rain. So those are some of the factors at play and linked with climate change. In your study, you concluded that higher levels of PM2.5 were strongly associated with nearby wildfires. Why did you study PM2.5? PM2.5 is arguably the most robustly associated pollutant associated with adverse health effects. There have been nearly countless studies looking at the effects of PM2.5 and the increase of asthma, hospital admissions, exacerbated [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease] and short life expectancy.  It’s not entirely clear what causes PM2.5 to be more toxic than PM10 [a type of pollutant in the form of relatively larger particulates], and it’s not clear which forms of PM2.5 are most toxic. Is it because of a higher heavy metal content, or is it worse if it has a higher organic composition or sulfur content? The verdict is still out on that. But setting those composition differences aside, PM2.5 is the main characteristic of this particular type of air pollution that is most associated with adverse health effects. What would you expect the health effects to be from these fires, particularly for poorer communities that you found were most vulnerable to PM2.5 from wildfires? About 7% to 8% of Californians are asthmatics. Asthma attacks are exacerbated by things like air pollution — about 38% to 39% of asthmatic individuals will have an attack at least once a year. Therefore, these wildfires will likely result in quite a few asthma attacks. We will probably also see increased hospital admissions for the exacerbation of chronic conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. There’s a whole separate series of health impacts we’re actually looking at through a survey of people exposed to the Tustin [north] hangar fire in 2023. There were a whole host of impacts, including mental stress. In an upcoming paper, we’re talking about mental stress as it relates to wildfires and environmental catastrophes. And I don’t think that should be overlooked, even though it’s less studied.  That, I would presume, will play a role here as well, especially given people abandoning their cars, losing their homes. It’s clearly a lot of trauma inflicted on this population. Post-traumatic stress disorders, anxiety disorders, those are things we see after major wildfire events, especially [in] people close to the fire. These impacts can be quite prevalent and can take quite a long time to dissipate, up to 10 years.  So I think smoke-related impacts are one thing. I think direct injuries from the fire, thermal injuries, are another. Property loss is another as well. But those mental impacts are also a major factor. The volume of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is at record levels. Do you expect more events like the current Los Angeles fire outbreak? Warming trends in the atmosphere don’t bode well. In addition to wildfire smoke, we also see higher energy demands [to run air conditioners] concurrent with heat waves. And that, depending on which state you live in, translates to greenhouse gas emissions from people using more electricity. Wildfires can wipe out the gains we’ve made from lowering emissions by reducing the prevalence of coal, [for example]. I think there’s a lot of work to be done on climate change in the United States. We have an incoming [presidential] administration notorious for disregarding climate change. And even though President [Joe] Biden acknowledged the importance of climate change and did a lot with the Inflation Reduction Act, we see a reluctance to shift away from fossil fuels even as we see more investments in renewable energy.  Biden broke his promise to end offshore drilling, so we’re seeing this fossil fuel addiction play out and remain, regardless of what political party is in office. In one case, it’s “drill baby drill”; in another, it’s “drill baby drill,” but we’ll also use the sun and wind.  So we’re so far off from where we need to be from policies to get us on the right track. And to highlight extensiveness needed for targets, the COVID-19 pandemic provided clear examples of just how dramatic a shift we’re talking about. We saw an 8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions during the first year of the pandemic, which is what is needed to comply with the U.N.’s target of an 8% reduction year-over-year for 10 years. That’s hard to fathom, given that our economy is globally grinding to a complete halt. That was an important lesson, and unfortunately we’re not taking steps to get on that track; we’re just ramping up emissions globally.  What gives you hope? What gives me hope is the youth community. My generation was basically much quieter on this issue than the current college generation. With every generation moving forward, the situation becomes all the more dire. It’s been quite inspirational to see them almost single-handedly get major attention and support and popularity around the Green New Deal; those are really youth-driven policy agendas. I think they’ve played a big role in popularizing those ideas.  I think those are major steps that cannot be overstated, and that generation now will be moving into politics, and that’s the most encouraging thing for me as I grapple with these issues.

College Athletics: Game Day for Climate Action

As teams travel thousands of miles to compete, the cost to the planet rises. But sports offer a unique opportunity to advocate for sustainable experiences. The post College Athletics: Game Day for Climate Action appeared first on The Revelator.

Imagine gazing through an airplane window as you pass over Appalachia and, later, the Grand Canyon before touching down just outside of San Francisco. Or grabbing a peek at the Berkshires before feeling the hard ground of Logan airport under thin wheels. This has been the journey of athletes, coaches, staff, and fans of California’s Stanford University and Boston College this past year as the two teams began competing directly in the Atlantic Coast Conference — yes, despite the fact that they’re on different coasts. Located about 3,100 miles apart, they are the farthest-separated competitors in a Power 5 conference and potentially all of college athletics. It’s unclear if this matchup will truly have financial benefits for either school or the conference, but it will have environmental consequences. I’ve always appreciated the amateur aspect of college sports and I continued to appreciate it at a distance from my work in climate activism. But my more formal work in emissions accounting and climate risk have allowed me to see it through a new lens. My preliminary analysis indicates that just one football and two basketball games per season between the Stanford Cardinals and the Boston College Eagles over 10 years will produce equivalent emissions to driving more than 1,000 passenger vehicles for one year. That’s just the result of team member and staff travel and doesn’t even include fan travel, let alone other operations and moving equipment, as well as the many other sports at each school. Air travel is the only real alternative for schools competing at these great distances. High speed rail in this country is years away (though I remain optimistic). Although traditional rail and other nonaviation means are used by an increasing number of professional and college teams, the average cross-country train trip takes three days each way — a difficult burden for athletes who also need to attend classes. But even the most sustainable means of travel have incremental costs and emissions — the greater the distance, the greater the climate cost. Meanwhile many of those travel alternatives are also likely to cost more and, contrary to mainstream narratives, most college athletics, football included, are not “profitable” for universities. Stanford and Boston College are not alone and their matchup is just one of the more egregious examples of this emerging athletic phenomenon. But as a BC alum I feel particularly empowered to call out this piece of their lack of commitment to sustainability. Universities seek to attract students from all over, and BC ranks high for the distance students travel simply to attend. That is not inherently “bad,” but should be understood in the context of transportation emissions and universities’ role, including and beyond athletics. When it comes to sports, hope does exist. The Green Sports Alliance, which I’ve worked with, aims to put into action sustainable events and experiences, especially by our leading universities. Programs like this have great potential. Sports sit at an intersection of health, academia, economy, national and regional identities, international unity, youth, climate, and myriad other cultural issues. While a lot of media coverage highlights negative or outlandish examples, sports have served positively in the fight for racial equity and basic LGBTQ+ inclusion time and again. While they have their issues and can showcase perturbed nationalism or violence, there is a movement toward sports better reflecting positive developments in society. Sports are also beyond bipartisan. Democrat Marty Walsh, a former Boston mayor and labor secretary — as well as a BC alum, I might add — leads the NHL Players Association, while former Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a Republican, currently leads the NCAA. Both have demonstrated a certain level of leadership on climate, sustainability, and transportation in their political careers, although we have yet to see that translate into their work in the sports world. Sports can be a beautiful and unifying force, especially for climate. In 2020 the leaders of student governments at all Big Ten schools came together to call for specific climate actions from their universities. The Atlantic Coast Conference Climate Justice Coalition launched a similar call later that same year, and student activists in the Ivy League followed in 2021. And of course who would forget the disruption of the Harvard-Yale football game by climate activists? These calls represent 52 universities, 950,000 active students, more than 12 million alumni, and $306 billion in endowment funds. While their impact on emissions is important, we must also take note of the impact of climate change on sports themselves. General travel and athletic events are often disrupted by weather, with climate change making things more volatile every year. This increases the likelihood of games being cancelled, attendance dropping due to poor weather, fans experiencing accidents on the road, or athletes being injured due to poor field conditions. Even the athletes’ travel itself has become more dangerous: Airlines have already measured an increase in turbulence on flights, and it’s anticipated to get worse. Despite that young athletes face increasing pressure to travel for sports. This pressure is tied into larger, and likely problematic, pressure on youth to perform and over-perform in sports and other aspects of their lives. I’ll let others take on that issue in more detail, but let’s be real — travel is, simply, exhausting. There’s another big threat: Some sports we enjoy in colder months — like skiing — could vanish. A study published this November found that without emission cuts, the Winter Olympics may no longer be possible. Protect Our Winters, another organization I’ve worked with, anticipates that threat and seeks to address climate change in defense of winter sports. It’s not just the Olympics: In the future, perhaps that flight from BC will take place over snowless Berkshires or never take off at all due to a flooded Logan Airport. Already built at sea level and on landfill never meant to be habitable, Logan — like many airports, infrastructure, homes, and other buildings — faces the risk of repeated flooding and damage, making it nearly inoperable as it faces its own contributions to the crisis. It is quite difficult to face this conundrum as both contributor and victim. Wherever you stand politically, in your view of how to raise children in the context of sports, or what your position is on whether college athletes should be paid, we can agree that sports affect emissions, emissions affect sports, and both are powerful aspects of much larger systems. This offers an area of intersection that many in the world not often moved by mainstream climate actions might find interesting or action-provoking, and it’s worthy of further analysis. Individual sports still involve a team at the highest level, and we all are or have been athletes or fans. Climate change is the same — our individual actions count, but our collective work is what affects the system. Scroll down to find our “Republish” button Previously in The Revelator: No Wave Is Insurmountable The post College Athletics: Game Day for Climate Action appeared first on The Revelator.

The flames from wildfires aren’t always the most dangerous part

Climate change is making wildfires more common and more severe. The pollution is killing us

The spate of devastating fires hitting the Los Angeles area has dominated headlines and understandably so. At least 10 people have died and upwards of 180,000 people have been evacuated with more than 10,000 structures destroyed. One of these fires, the Palisades Fire, began burning on Tuesday and continues at the time of this writing, has destroyed at least 17,000 acres, the most in Los Angeles history. But there's also the Eaton Fire, the Hurst Fire, the Kenneth Fire and other fires in the area, many with little to no containment. While hundreds of thousands of Californians are fleeing from flames, there are other risks aside from the immediate damage: air pollution and the charred toxins that are left behind.  To give one example, a recent study in the journal JAMA Neurology has looked at the effects of wildfire smoke on  dementia. Previous research has established that tiny particles in the air (2.5 micrometers or less in diameter, known as PM2.5) are linked to dementia, but the researchers found that long-term exposure to wildfire smoke specifically “was associated with dementia diagnoses.” They added that as climate change worsens, “interventions focused on reducing wildfire PM2.5 exposure may reduce dementia diagnoses and related inequities.” To conduct their research, the scientists looked at health data from more than 1.2 million people from between 2008 and 2019 among members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Within this cohort, they discovered “people with higher exposure to wildfire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) had elevated risk of developing dementia,” explained Dr. Joan Casey, the study’s corresponding author and a professor of public health at the University of Washington. Because this study only examined existing patient data, Casey told Salon that scientists will need to do more research on the precise relationship between wildfire exposure and dementia. “We looked at the umbrella of all dementia diagnoses, but certain sub-types like Alzheimer’s or frontotemporal dementia might have stronger links with wildfire PM2.5,” Casey said. “We also want to understand the relevant time window of exposure. Here, we looked at exposure in the prior three years, but a longer window is likely important (up to 20 years.)” "As temperatures and humidity increase, conditions such as stroke, migraines, meningitis, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, schizophrenia, Alzheimer's disease, and Parkinson's disease may worsen." The researchers’ work is unfortunately relevant to human beings because climate change is making wildfires more frequent and more intense. From California and Hawaii to Greece and Spain, more and more of Earth’s wooded areas are bursting into flame as humanity overheats the planet with heat-trapping fossil fuel emissions. While these conflagrations engulf millions of acres of lands, they belch fine particulate matter into the air, which humans inevitably inhale. But more and more research is making it clear how devastating to our health this toxic air can be. Although this study focuses specifically on wildfire PM2.5, other research firmly establishes that PM2.5 in general is bad for human health. A report from the National Bureau of Economic Research released last April found that wildfire smoke contributes to the deaths of around 16,000 Americans per year, with that number expected to rise to 30,000 by mid century. A systematic review published in the journal Neurotoxicology found a link between air pollution and increased depressive and anxiety symptoms and behaviors, as well as physical alterations in brain regions believed to be associated with those conditions. A 2024 study in the journal Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety likewise found links between various types of common air pollution and diseases including PTSD and multiple sclerosis, while a 2021 study in the journal Neurology found a link between urban air pollution and central nervous system diseases. Want more health and science stories in your inbox? Subscribe to Salon's weekly newsletter Lab Notes. "The results of our studies on the effects of nanoparticles in the air show a link between exposure to air pollutants and neurological diseases and neuropsychiatric disorders," 2021 study lead author Mojtaba Ehsanifar, an assistant professor of environmental neurotoxicology at Kashan University of Medical Sciences' Anatomical Sciences Research Center, told Salon by email. Although Ehsanifar has not specifically worked on the effects of pollutants from fires, he noted that pollutants produced by both gases tend to be similar. He blames climate change for this problem. “A recent investigation establishes a connection between climate change and the exacerbation of certain neurological disorders,” Ehsanifar said. “As temperatures and humidity increase, conditions such as stroke, migraines, meningitis, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, schizophrenia, Alzheimer's disease, and Parkinson's disease may worsen.” He added that as temperatures continue to rise, the heat will combine with the smoke to hurt our brains. "This is yet another example of the profound, yet grossly understated negative health consequences of human-caused climate change." “Currently, brains are already operating toward the upper thresholds of these ranges, and as climate change elevates temperature and humidity, our brains might struggle to maintain temperature regulation, even malfunctioning,” Ehsanifar said. “A high internal body temperature, especially above 104 degrees Fahrenheit, with cognitive impairment such as confusion, defines heat stroke.” This research underscores how global heating is intrinsically linked to our health. University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Dr. Michael E. Mann said it is fair to directly attribute diseases like dementia to climate change when they are demonstrably caused by wildfire exposure. “The connection is epidemiological, much like the negative health consequences of smoking are epidemiological, i.e. statistical in nature,” Mann said. “So in other words, while it’s always possible that a victim could have suffered neurological diseases for other reasons, we can say that exposure to wildfire smoke substantially increases the likelihood of e.g. developing dementia, enough so that there is effectively a causal connection there.” Mann added, “This is yet another example of the profound, yet grossly understated negative health consequences of human-caused climate change.” Dr. Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Salon that he is not surprised the study found adverse effects of wildfire pollution. The revelation that PM2.5 may indirectly increase dementia risk, however, was new to him. “But there is no question that air pollution is bad for health in many ways,” Trenberth said. “On bad pollution days, either one should not exercise or should do it indoors. So this affects exercise, which should help health. With wildfires around, one should not breathe the foul air. So this can be partially controlled from industry although mainly for larger particles. It is harder to see the smaller particles.” Nor are humans alone in suffering, Trenberth noted. “Think of all the poor animals exposed.” Scientists writing in 2022 for the journal Environmental Research described air pollution broadly as an underrecognized public health risk, arguing that “policy needs to be matched by scientific evidence and appropriate guidelines, including bespoke strategies to optimise impact and mitigate unintended consequences.” In addition to mitigating the impacts of climate change, experts urge ordinary citizens to take measures to protect their lungs during times of intense air pollution. Whether it is caused by wildfires, urban smog or any other source, the overwhelming evidence is that breathing it in is bad for a person’s respiratory health. What remains after a wildfire can also be dangerous. The charred ruins of houses and burnt out cars contain countless pollutants from melted plastics, paints, electronics and household waste. Until the environment is adequately cleaned up, the likelihood is that those who struggle with disease because of exposure to wildfires both during and after may continue to risk their health. “Seeing the magnitude of the relationship between wildfire PM2.5 and dementia was quite striking,” Casey said. “I was especially struck by how much stronger this relationship was for people living in communities with higher levels of poverty, suggesting that climate change is again increasing health disparities.” Read more about climate change

The climate benefits of NYC’s hard-won congestion pricing plan

Driving into lower Manhattan is now more expensive, but the toll promises cleaner air, safer streets, and improved subways.

After months — and, for some, years — of anticipation, congestion pricing is live in New York City.  The controversial policy, which essentially makes it more expensive to drive into the busiest part of Manhattan, has been floated as a way to reduce traffic and raise money for the city’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs the city’s subways and buses, since the 1970s. But it wasn’t until 2017 that it seemed like it might finally catch on.  Still, getting it implemented has been an uphill battle. Last summer, New York Governor Kathy Hochul abruptly paused a carefully crafted plan that would have implemented $15 tolls on drivers heading into Manhattan below 60th Street, a mere 25 days before the plan would have gone into effect. Months later, in November, she said she would unpause the plan with lower tolls: $9 for passenger vehicles during peak hours and $2.25 during off-peak. After all the hubbub, New York City made history just after midnight on Sunday, January 5, when the cameras used to enforce the tolls turned on.  With this move, New York City becomes the first U.S. city to experiment with congestion pricing tolls, and joins a small cohort of other major cities — London, Stockholm, and Singapore — trying to disincentivize driving in order to unlock safer streets and a host of other environmental benefits. Environmental and public transit advocates praise congestion pricing because it pushes drivers to reconsider whether getting behind the wheel is really the easiest way to get around the city. With fewer cars on the road, congestion pricing promises shorter commute times for those who do drive — and better public transit options, since the money raised by congestion pricing will fund capital improvements by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, or MTA.  But the policy has not been without its naysayers. One New York City councilmember — Republican Vickie Paladino — appeared to encourage her followers on X (formerly Twitter) to damage the tolling cameras with lasers. Congestion pricing detractors say that tolls are burdensome. Of course, in some way, this is the point: to make driving slightly less appealing and incentivize alternative modes of transportation.  Proponents say these are worthwhile costs to fund meaningful improvements to New Yorkers’ lives — like safer streets and cleaner air.  “At this point, across much of the country, cars are so ingrained into American culture that we don’t always think of them as environmental hazards, but of course they are,” said Alexa Sledge, director of communications for Transportation Alternatives, an advocacy group focused on street safety in New York City. “So a major goal of our climate policy has to be getting people out of cars and on public transit, onto buses, onto bikes, onto trips on foot.” These less carbon-intensive modes of transit, she says, are “always going to be substantially more environmentally friendly.” Cars pass under E-ZPass readers and license plate-scanning cameras on 5th Avenue in Manhattan as congestion pricing takes effect in New York City. Kena Betancur / AFP via Getty Images One of the main selling points of congestion pricing, besides reducing traffic, is improving air quality. Fewer cars on the road means fewer cars emitting exhaust in the nation’s most densely populated city — and less traffic also means that less time spent idling.  An environmental assessment of congestion pricing published in 2023 estimated the impact tolls would have on a number of air pollutants, including carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, and benzene. These chemicals have been linked to health problems including heart disease, respiratory issues, cognitive impairment, and increased risk of cancer. The assessment also looked at the impact tolls would have on greenhouse gases. It analyzed these impacts at a regional level, looking at 12 different counties across New York and New Jersey, and projected how big or small the change in pollutants would be by 2045.  The report found that, with congestion pricing, Manhattan would see a 4.36 percent reduction in daily vehicle-miles traveled by 2045. This would lead to sizable reductions in air pollutants in Manhattan, especially in the central business district (the area drivers must pay a toll to enter). For example, per the environmental assessment’s modeling, the central business district would see a 10.72 percent drop in carbon dioxide equivalents by 2045, as well as a similar drop in fine particular matter, and slightly lower drops in nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide (5.89 percent and 6.55 percent, respectively).  When you zoom out, the benefits become sparser, but are still meaningful: The assessment found that, across the 12 New York and New Jersey counties included in its analysis, carbon dioxide equivalents would fall by 0.8 percent by 2045. Those 12 counties have a collective population of roughly 14 million. It’s worth noting that real-life impacts will likely differ from these estimates — and it will take robust data collection to see exactly how. The environmental assessment based these projections off a congestion pricing scenario that’s actually slightly more ambitious than the one in place today, with peak tolls for passenger vehicles priced at $9 and off-peak tolls at $7. But the tolls for drivers that Hochul signed off on will ramp up over time. By 2028, peak tolls will be $12, and by 2031, they’ll reach $15. “The most important thing is to start,” said Andy Darrell, regional director of New York at the Environmental Defense Fund, who was optimistic that real-life benefits may surpass these projections over time. “And it’s important to monitor the effects going forward and then be able to adjust the program as we go. And I think that’s exactly what’s happening now.” A congestion pricing warning sign on 5th Avenue in Manhattan. Kena Betancur / AFP via Getty Images Eric Goldstein, the New York City environmental director at the National Resources Defense Council, was similarly confident about congestion pricing’s benefits. Over email, he said, “Even if the reduction in traditional air pollutants and global warming emissions are modest from implementation of congestion pricing, the indirect air quality benefits will be substantial over the long term,” adding that congestion pricing will “provide a jolt of adrenaline to the region’s subway, bus, and commuter rail system that moves the overwhelming majority of people into and out of Manhattan.” The environmental assessment also found that, as a result of congestion pricing, traffic may increase in other parts of the city, like the Bronx, where neighborhoods like the South Bronx already suffer from disproportionately high rates of asthma. To offset this, the MTA has promised to fund several mitigation efforts, such as replacing diesel-fueled trucks around Hunts Point, a bustling food distribution facility, with cleaner models. It will also install air filtration systems at schools located near highways, plant more trees near roads, and establish a Bronx asthma center.  These efforts, however, have done little to reassure local community members. In November, South Bronx Unite, a coalition centered on social and environmental justice, called New York City’s revived congestion pricing plan a “death blow” for the South Bronx and said the mitigation efforts do not go far enough to address the root causes of pollution in the area. “We welcome all pollution mitigation measures for the South Bronx and for any pollution-burdened community, but they should not be dangled in front of us as a bargaining chip for adding more pollution to the area,” Arif Ullah, the group’s executive director, told reporters.     Beyond cleaner air for most of the region, congestion pricing is likely to have other environmental and climate benefits. For example, the money raised by congestion pricing tolls will allow the MTA to access $15 billion in financing for capital improvements, such as making subway stations more accessible. These sorts of upgrades, while not technically designed with climate change in mind, make the subway safer and more efficient to use — and that matters when extreme weather strikes. Sledge, from Transportation Alternatives, said: “People really do rely on our subway system to get them where they need to go, and if there is a mass weather event, then that’s really scary and really difficult.” In September 2023, rainstorms caused flash flooding in New York City, overwhelming the subway system in many places. After Hochul declared a state of emergency due to the extreme rainfall, the MTA warned of disruptions “across our network” and advised people to stay home if they could. Climate change makes extreme rainfall more likely because rising ocean temperatures lead to more water evaporating into the air. As Sledge notes, these weather events are “obviously only getting more and more common” as global temperatures keep rising. “So anything we can do to mitigate this is going to be extremely important as we move forward.” Technically speaking, the funds raised by congestion pricing will only be spent on capital improvements included in the MTA’s 2020-2024 capital plan; the agency will likely need to raise another $6 billion to fund its climate resilience roadmap, which includes things like elevating subway vents to prevent storm surges from flooding subway stations.  But experts agreed that improving the public transit system is critical to achieving New York City’s climate goals. “For a very densely populated region like the New York metropolitan region, that investment in transit is fundamental to achieving our climate goals and our air quality goals,” said Darrell from the Environmental Defense Fund.  The National Resources Defense Council’s Goldstein agreed: “Ultimately, if we can’t adequately fund this public transit system so that it provides safe, reliable and efficient service, the region’s environment, as well as its economy, is certain to decline.” This story was originally published by Grist with the headline The climate benefits of NYC’s hard-won congestion pricing plan on Jan 10, 2025.

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