Cookies help us run our site more efficiently.

By clicking “Accept”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. View our Privacy Policy for more information or to customize your cookie preferences.

Corporations invested in carbon offsets that were ‘likely junk’, analysis says

News Feed
Thursday, May 30, 2024

Some of the world’s most profitable – and most polluting corporations – have invested in carbon offset projects that have fundamental failings and are “probably junk”, suggesting industry claims about greenhouse gas reductions were likely overblown, according to new analysis.Delta, Gucci, Volkswagen, ExxonMobil, Disney, easyJet, and Nestlé are among the major corporations to have purchased millions of carbon credits from climate friendly projects that are “likely junk” or worthless when it comes to offsetting their greenhouse gas emissions, according to a classification system developed by Corporate Accountability, a non-profit, transnational corporate watchdogSome of these companies no longer use CO2 offsets amid mounting evidence that carbon trading do not lead to the claimed emissions cuts – and in some cases may even cause environmental and social harms.However, the multibillion-dollar voluntary carbon trading industry is still championed by many corporations including oil and gas majors, airlines, automakers, tourism, fast-food and beverage brands, fashion houses, banks, and tech firms as the bedrock of climate action – a way of claiming to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint while continuing to rely on fossil fuels and unsustainable supply chains.Yet, for 33 of the top 50 corporate buyers, more than a third of their entire offsets portfolio is “likely junk” – suggesting at least some claims about carbon neutrality and emission reductions have been exaggerated according to the analysis. The fundamental failings leading to a “likely junk” ranking include whether emissions cuts would have happened anyway, as is often the case with large hydroelectric dams, or if the emissions were just shifted elsewhere, a common issue in forestry offset projects.“These findings add to the mounting evidence that peels back the greenwashed facade of the voluntary carbon market and lays bare the ways it dangerously distracts from the real, lasting action the world’s largest corporations and polluters need to be taking,” said Rachel Rose Jackson, Corporate Accountability’s director of research.The fossil fuel industry is by far the largest investor in the world’s most popular 50 CO2 offsetting schemes. At least 43% of the 81m CO2 credits purchased by the oil and gas majors are for projects that have at least one fundamental flaw and are “probably junk”, according to the analysis.The transport industry, which accounts for about a fifth of all global planet-warming emissions, has also relied heavily on carbon offsetting projects to meet climate goals. Just over 42% of the total credits (55m) purchased by airlines and 38% purchased by automakers (21m) for the top 50 projects are likely worthless at reducing emissions, the analysis found.The new analysis, shared with the Guardian, builds on a joint investigation last year into the top 50 CO2 offset projects – those that have sold the most carbon credits in the global market. The vast majority of the most popular 50 offset projects were classified as likely or potentially junk due to one or more fundamental failing that undermines its promised emission cut, according to the criteria and classification system applied to the analyses.1. Raw data on the 50 top offsets projects was obtained from the AlliedOffsets database which aggregates carbon trades from the world’s leading offset registries, carbon resellers and brokers, and includes about 25,000 offset projects across 150 countries. The 50 top projects were ranked based on the number of credits they have retired (sold) since inception, and account for about a third of the entire VCM.2. The original analysis drew on information from academic studies, civil society research, offset project certifiers/registries, private sector databases and ratings, and media investigations. In addition, we assessed the strength and rigor of the available evidence.3. The classification system assessed whether each offset project could be relied on to generate the promised additional emission cuts – or not. The integrity and effectiveness of each emission-cutting project was assessed against the following set of criteria:Leakage – shifting emissions from one place to another, even if unintentionally. This has been a common issue in forestry projects.Exaggerated claims, intentional or unintentional, about the project’s emission cuts.Inflated baseline figures often – though not always – can lead to exaggerated claims of a project’s benefits.Overestimation of avoided deforestation.Non-permanence – permanence ensures that the carbon stored or captured doesn’t escape back into the atmosphere. Scientifically, it can’t be stored forever, but anything less than 100 years is too little in the context of the climate crisis.Non-additional – the project would have happened anyway, with or without the VCM – and doesn’t lead to additional emission cuts. Common in large renewable projects.4. Strong evidence of one or more of these fundamental failing means the promised emission reductions cannot be guaranteed. Some evidence of at least one failing means the project is potentially junk as it cannot guarantee the advertised emission cuts.5. Each environmental project with one or more fundamental failing was classified as likely or potentially junk, depending on the number and gravity of the failings.6. Corporate buyers were ranked based on the quantity of credits purchased from the top 50 projects, and what proportion were likely junk. The named companies are household names; have purchased millions of CO2 credits; and more than a third of their offset portfolio is likely junk.The top 50 projects include forestry schemes, hydroelectric dams, solar and wind farms, waste disposal and greener household appliances schemes across 20 (mostly) developing countries, according to data from AlliedOffsets, the most comprehensive emissions trading database, which tracks projects from inception. They account for almost a third of the entire global voluntary carbon market (VCM), suggesting that junk or overvalued carbon credits that exaggerate emission reduction benefits could be the norm.The VCM industry works by carbon credits being tradable “allowances” or certificates that allows the purchaser to offset 1 ton of carbon dioxide or the equivalent in greenhouse gasses by investing in environmental projects anywhere in the world that claim to reduce carbon emissions.President Biden speaks about his administration’s actions on climate change at an event in California in June 2023. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/ReutersClimate experts say that the carbon trading market has failed to produce the promised planetary benefits, delayed the transition away from oil, gas and coal, and caused harm to forests and communities in developing countries where most offset projects are located.On Tuesday, the Biden administration published new guidelines on responsible participation in VCMs which they say will drive credible and ambitious climate action. But critics argue that offsets are fundamentally flawed.“Overall, carbon offsets are, according to most expert analyses, neither credible nor scalable to the urgency and scale of the carbon dioxide problem,” said Richard Heede, co-director of the Climate Accountability Institute, a nonprofit research and education group.“This report documents the prevalence of ‘worthless’ or ‘likely junk’ carbon offsets in the global Voluntary Carbon Market, and undermines the corporate rationale for claiming emissions reductions based on such credits,” Heede added.The new sector-by-sector analysis found:Fossil fuel firms and airlinesOil and gas majors are among the largest corporate buyers of likely junk offsets. Almost half (49%) the 3.7m carbon credits purchased by ExxonMobil are for two projects classified as likely junk or worthless. Internal company documents show that scientists at Exxon, which is one of the world’s worst greenhouse gas emitters, were accurately predicting the impact of fossil fuels on the climate in the 1970s.A spokesperson for ExxonMobile said: “Carbon offsets are a viable way to [reduce emissions and reach net zero], which is why we continue to evaluate them. We’re working to verify the claims cited in this analysis.”With the exception of fossil fuel firms, Delta has purchased more carbon credits than any other corporation. Just over 35% of the 41m carbon credits purchased by Delta were from 11 offset projects which are likely worthless or junk, according to Corporate Accountability.In California, a 2023 civil class-action alleged that Delta misrepresented itself as carbon-neutral as the company’s reliance on the carbon trading market renders its climate friendly representations as false and misleading. The judge reduced the scope of the lawsuit last month after Delta rejected the allegations and filed a motion to dismiss. The case continues.A spokesperson said the company is investing in sustainable aviation fuel, more fuel-efficient aircraft and reducing fuel use through operational efficiencies in a bid to reach “net zero” by 2050. “We have shifted away from carbon neutrality and offsets.”Meanwhile almost 72% of the 11m carbon credits ever purchased by easyJet, a popular low-cost European airline, were for projects classified as likely junk. In 2022, the airline announced plans to transition away from offsetting in favor of a “roadmap to net zero” emissions by 2050 through more fuel-efficient aircraft and perational efficiencies as well as sustainable aviation fuel and carbon capture and storage – technologies which scientists have warned could exacerbate the climate crisis.An easyJet spokesperson said: “In the short period we did offset customer emissions, we had robust due diligence processes in place, with all projects recommended by expert partners and all required to meet the highest standards available.”A 2021 joint investigation by the Guardian revealed that major airlines including Delta and easyJet were using unreliable “phantom” carbon credits to claim their flights were carbon neutral.Car makers, entertainment giants, luxury goodsAlmost half (46%) of the 11m CO2 credits purchased by Volkswagen from the top 50 projects were likely junk, according to the analysis. The German carmaker recently announced a joint venture to develop its own carbon credit projects and said they increasingly rely on on-site inspections, due diligence and audit processes to verify projects. VW aims to reduce its emissions by 90% compared to 2018 by converting its energy supply and increasing energy efficiency among other measures.In the world of entertainment, almost 62% of the 5.8m carbon credits retired by Disney are from two offset projects which have been classified as likely junk or worthless.Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida. Photograph: Octavio Jones/ReutersThe analysis also found that 75% of the 4.4m carbon credits purchased by the Italian luxury fashion house Gucci have been for projects classified as likely junk. Gucci, which was once a high-profile proponent of offsetting, last year dropped its carbon neutral claim amid growing evidence that the rainforest projects it relied on were likely junk and potentially harmful. Gucci is finalizing new climate commitments with a greater focus on cutting absolute emissions through its supply chain.The food and drinks industry is a major climate polluter – and investor in carbon markets, with 37% of the industry-wide credits purchased from projects classified as likely junk.Food and drinks industryThe analysis found that almost 36% of the 2.2m carbon credits purchased by Nestlé, the world’s largest food and beverage company, were from five offset projects which have been classified as likely junk. Nestlé said that it stopped purchasing credits from these projects in 2021/2022. “Reaching net zero emissions at Nestlé does not involve using offsetting: we focus on GHG emissions reductions and removals within our value chain to reach our net zero ambition.”While some corporations have signaled a shift away from carbon offsetting, the VCM is still valued between $2 and $3bn – despite warnings that the industry is a false solution delaying the world’s transition away from oil, gas and coal.“This research once again shows that big corporate polluters claiming climate credentials are the main buyers of junk credits. But racking up carbon credits doesn’t make you a climate leader. Cutting fossil fuels does. We can’t offset our way to a safe climate future,” said Erika Lennon, senior attorney at the Centre for International Environmental Law (Ciel).“For all the talk about carbon credits accelerating climate action, they are actually greenwashing climate destruction.”

Analysis of the carbon offset projects used by top corporations including Delta, Gucci and ExxonMobil raises concerns around their emission cuts claimsSome of the world’s most profitable – and most polluting corporations – have invested in carbon offset projects that have fundamental failings and are “probably junk”, suggesting industry claims about greenhouse gas reductions were likely overblown, according to new analysis.Delta, Gucci, Volkswagen, ExxonMobil, Disney, easyJet, and Nestlé are among the major corporations to have purchased millions of carbon credits from climate friendly projects that are “likely junk” or worthless when it comes to offsetting their greenhouse gas emissions, according to a classification system developed by Corporate Accountability, a non-profit, transnational corporate watchdog Continue reading...

Some of the world’s most profitable – and most polluting corporations – have invested in carbon offset projects that have fundamental failings and are “probably junk”, suggesting industry claims about greenhouse gas reductions were likely overblown, according to new analysis.

Delta, Gucci, Volkswagen, ExxonMobil, Disney, easyJet, and Nestlé are among the major corporations to have purchased millions of carbon credits from climate friendly projects that are “likely junk” or worthless when it comes to offsetting their greenhouse gas emissions, according to a classification system developed by Corporate Accountability, a non-profit, transnational corporate watchdog

Some of these companies no longer use CO2 offsets amid mounting evidence that carbon trading do not lead to the claimed emissions cuts – and in some cases may even cause environmental and social harms.

However, the multibillion-dollar voluntary carbon trading industry is still championed by many corporations including oil and gas majors, airlines, automakers, tourism, fast-food and beverage brands, fashion houses, banks, and tech firms as the bedrock of climate action – a way of claiming to reduce their greenhouse gas footprint while continuing to rely on fossil fuels and unsustainable supply chains.

Yet, for 33 of the top 50 corporate buyers, more than a third of their entire offsets portfolio is “likely junk” – suggesting at least some claims about carbon neutrality and emission reductions have been exaggerated according to the analysis. The fundamental failings leading to a “likely junk” ranking include whether emissions cuts would have happened anyway, as is often the case with large hydroelectric dams, or if the emissions were just shifted elsewhere, a common issue in forestry offset projects.

“These findings add to the mounting evidence that peels back the greenwashed facade of the voluntary carbon market and lays bare the ways it dangerously distracts from the real, lasting action the world’s largest corporations and polluters need to be taking,” said Rachel Rose Jackson, Corporate Accountability’s director of research.

The fossil fuel industry is by far the largest investor in the world’s most popular 50 CO2 offsetting schemes. At least 43% of the 81m CO2 credits purchased by the oil and gas majors are for projects that have at least one fundamental flaw and are “probably junk”, according to the analysis.

The transport industry, which accounts for about a fifth of all global planet-warming emissions, has also relied heavily on carbon offsetting projects to meet climate goals. Just over 42% of the total credits (55m) purchased by airlines and 38% purchased by automakers (21m) for the top 50 projects are likely worthless at reducing emissions, the analysis found.

The new analysis, shared with the Guardian, builds on a joint investigation last year into the top 50 CO2 offset projects – those that have sold the most carbon credits in the global market. The vast majority of the most popular 50 offset projects were classified as likely or potentially junk due to one or more fundamental failing that undermines its promised emission cut, according to the criteria and classification system applied to the analyses.

1. Raw data on the 50 top offsets projects was obtained from the AlliedOffsets database which aggregates carbon trades from the world’s leading offset registries, carbon resellers and brokers, and includes about 25,000 offset projects across 150 countries. The 50 top projects were ranked based on the number of credits they have retired (sold) since inception, and account for about a third of the entire VCM.
2. The original analysis drew on information from academic studies, civil society research, offset project certifiers/registries, private sector databases and ratings, and media investigations. In addition, we assessed the strength and rigor of the available evidence.
3. The classification system assessed whether each offset project could be relied on to generate the promised additional emission cuts – or not. The integrity and effectiveness of each emission-cutting project was assessed against the following set of criteria:

Leakage – shifting emissions from one place to another, even if unintentionally. This has been a common issue in forestry projects.

Exaggerated claims, intentional or unintentional, about the project’s emission cuts.

Inflated baseline figures often – though not always – can lead to exaggerated claims of a project’s benefits.

Overestimation of avoided deforestation.

Non-permanence – permanence ensures that the carbon stored or captured doesn’t escape back into the atmosphere. Scientifically, it can’t be stored forever, but anything less than 100 years is too little in the context of the climate crisis.

Non-additional – the project would have happened anyway, with or without the VCM – and doesn’t lead to additional emission cuts. Common in large renewable projects.

4. Strong evidence of one or more of these fundamental failing means the promised emission reductions cannot be guaranteed. Some evidence of at least one failing means the project is potentially junk as it cannot guarantee the advertised emission cuts.
5. Each environmental project with one or more fundamental failing was classified as likely or potentially junk, depending on the number and gravity of the failings.
6. Corporate buyers were ranked based on the quantity of credits purchased from the top 50 projects, and what proportion were likely junk. The named companies are household names; have purchased millions of CO2 credits; and more than a third of their offset portfolio is likely junk.

The top 50 projects include forestry schemes, hydroelectric dams, solar and wind farms, waste disposal and greener household appliances schemes across 20 (mostly) developing countries, according to data from AlliedOffsets, the most comprehensive emissions trading database, which tracks projects from inception. They account for almost a third of the entire global voluntary carbon market (VCM), suggesting that junk or overvalued carbon credits that exaggerate emission reduction benefits could be the norm.

The VCM industry works by carbon credits being tradable “allowances” or certificates that allows the purchaser to offset 1 ton of carbon dioxide or the equivalent in greenhouse gasses by investing in environmental projects anywhere in the world that claim to reduce carbon emissions.

President Biden speaks about his administration’s actions on climate change at an event in California in June 2023. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Climate experts say that the carbon trading market has failed to produce the promised planetary benefits, delayed the transition away from oil, gas and coal, and caused harm to forests and communities in developing countries where most offset projects are located.

On Tuesday, the Biden administration published new guidelines on responsible participation in VCMs which they say will drive credible and ambitious climate action. But critics argue that offsets are fundamentally flawed.

“Overall, carbon offsets are, according to most expert analyses, neither credible nor scalable to the urgency and scale of the carbon dioxide problem,” said Richard Heede, co-director of the Climate Accountability Institute, a nonprofit research and education group.

“This report documents the prevalence of ‘worthless’ or ‘likely junk’ carbon offsets in the global Voluntary Carbon Market, and undermines the corporate rationale for claiming emissions reductions based on such credits,” Heede added.

The new sector-by-sector analysis found:

Fossil fuel firms and airlines

Oil and gas majors are among the largest corporate buyers of likely junk offsets. Almost half (49%) the 3.7m carbon credits purchased by ExxonMobil are for two projects classified as likely junk or worthless. Internal company documents show that scientists at Exxon, which is one of the world’s worst greenhouse gas emitters, were accurately predicting the impact of fossil fuels on the climate in the 1970s.

A spokesperson for ExxonMobile said: “Carbon offsets are a viable way to [reduce emissions and reach net zero], which is why we continue to evaluate them. We’re working to verify the claims cited in this analysis.”

With the exception of fossil fuel firms, Delta has purchased more carbon credits than any other corporation. Just over 35% of the 41m carbon credits purchased by Delta were from 11 offset projects which are likely worthless or junk, according to Corporate Accountability.

In California, a 2023 civil class-action alleged that Delta misrepresented itself as carbon-neutral as the company’s reliance on the carbon trading market renders its climate friendly representations as false and misleading. The judge reduced the scope of the lawsuit last month after Delta rejected the allegations and filed a motion to dismiss. The case continues.

A spokesperson said the company is investing in sustainable aviation fuel, more fuel-efficient aircraft and reducing fuel use through operational efficiencies in a bid to reach “net zero” by 2050. “We have shifted away from carbon neutrality and offsets.”

Meanwhile almost 72% of the 11m carbon credits ever purchased by easyJet, a popular low-cost European airline, were for projects classified as likely junk. In 2022, the airline announced plans to transition away from offsetting in favor of a “roadmap to net zero” emissions by 2050 through more fuel-efficient aircraft and perational efficiencies as well as sustainable aviation fuel and carbon capture and storage – technologies which scientists have warned could exacerbate the climate crisis.

An easyJet spokesperson said: “In the short period we did offset customer emissions, we had robust due diligence processes in place, with all projects recommended by expert partners and all required to meet the highest standards available.”

A 2021 joint investigation by the Guardian revealed that major airlines including Delta and easyJet were using unreliable “phantom” carbon credits to claim their flights were carbon neutral.

Car makers, entertainment giants, luxury goods

Almost half (46%) of the 11m CO2 credits purchased by Volkswagen from the top 50 projects were likely junk, according to the analysis. The German carmaker recently announced a joint venture to develop its own carbon credit projects and said they increasingly rely on on-site inspections, due diligence and audit processes to verify projects. VW aims to reduce its emissions by 90% compared to 2018 by converting its energy supply and increasing energy efficiency among other measures.

In the world of entertainment, almost 62% of the 5.8m carbon credits retired by Disney are from two offset projects which have been classified as likely junk or worthless.

Walt Disney World in Orlando, Florida. Photograph: Octavio Jones/Reuters

The analysis also found that 75% of the 4.4m carbon credits purchased by the Italian luxury fashion house Gucci have been for projects classified as likely junk. Gucci, which was once a high-profile proponent of offsetting, last year dropped its carbon neutral claim amid growing evidence that the rainforest projects it relied on were likely junk and potentially harmful. Gucci is finalizing new climate commitments with a greater focus on cutting absolute emissions through its supply chain.

The food and drinks industry is a major climate polluter – and investor in carbon markets, with 37% of the industry-wide credits purchased from projects classified as likely junk.

Food and drinks industry

The analysis found that almost 36% of the 2.2m carbon credits purchased by Nestlé, the world’s largest food and beverage company, were from five offset projects which have been classified as likely junk. Nestlé said that it stopped purchasing credits from these projects in 2021/2022. “Reaching net zero emissions at Nestlé does not involve using offsetting: we focus on GHG emissions reductions and removals within our value chain to reach our net zero ambition.”

While some corporations have signaled a shift away from carbon offsetting, the VCM is still valued between $2 and $3bn – despite warnings that the industry is a false solution delaying the world’s transition away from oil, gas and coal.

“This research once again shows that big corporate polluters claiming climate credentials are the main buyers of junk credits. But racking up carbon credits doesn’t make you a climate leader. Cutting fossil fuels does. We can’t offset our way to a safe climate future,” said Erika Lennon, senior attorney at the Centre for International Environmental Law (Ciel).

“For all the talk about carbon credits accelerating climate action, they are actually greenwashing climate destruction.”

Read the full story here.
Photos courtesy of

Morgan Stanley to exit global climate coalition

Morgan Stanley on Thursday announced its departure from a coalition of banks that aims to target net-zero emissions through lending and investment, the fifth group to do so in recent weeks. “Morgan Stanley has decided to withdraw from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance. Morgan Stanley’s commitment to net-zero remains unchanged. We aim to contribute to real-economy...

Morgan Stanley on Thursday announced its departure from a coalition of banks that aims to target net-zero emissions through lending and investment, the fifth group to do so in recent weeks. “Morgan Stanley has decided to withdraw from the Net-Zero Banking Alliance. Morgan Stanley’s commitment to net-zero remains unchanged. We aim to contribute to real-economy decarbonization by providing our clients with the advice and capital required to transform business models and reduce carbon intensity,” a spokesperson for the bank said in a statement Thursday. “We will continue to report on our progress as we work towards our 2030 interim financed emissions targets.” Morgan Stanley is the latest in an exodus of major banks from the compact, following the earlier withdrawals of Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. The bank did not give a reason for leaving the alliance, which the United Nations established through its Environment Programme Finance Initiative in 2021. However, it comes weeks before a Republican trifecta is set to take office in Washington, where environmental and sustainable governance (ESG) initiatives are likely to be in its crosshairs. In June, Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee accused major investment firms of “collusion” with climate activist groups. Weeks ago, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) led 11 GOP state attorneys general in a lawsuit against asset managers BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street that accused them of “conspiring to artificially constrict the coal market” through their industry holdings. BlackRock and State Street have called the allegations “baseless.” As early as last February, however, major banks and asset managing firms have signaled a retreat on climate commitments. That month, Bank of America backtracked on a vow that it would not fund new coal mining, shipping or burning infrastructure, while JPMorgan Chase’s investment arm exited another investment alliance, Climate Action 100+.

Will California sell gas cars after 2035? Nobody knows for sure.

While the Biden administration approved California’s effort to ban new sales of gas-powered cars by 2035, the Golden State’s automotive future remains uncertain. The incoming Trump administration is likely to try to undo the December approval — and a wave of litigation will also probably challenge the Biden administration’s decision.  But President-elect Trump’s anticipated actions could also...

While the Biden administration approved California’s effort to ban new sales of gas-powered cars by 2035, the Golden State’s automotive future remains uncertain. The incoming Trump administration is likely to try to undo the December approval — and a wave of litigation will also probably challenge the Biden administration’s decision.  But President-elect Trump’s anticipated actions could also face court challenges. And California could have more tricks up its sleeve to push its market toward electric vehicles regardless of what Trump does.  “There's just an enormous amount of uncertainty about whether the rule goes into effect — lots of moving parts. It will take a while before we know the answer to that question,” said Ann Carlson, a former Biden administration official who is now an environmental law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.  The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sets its own rules for the nation about how much emissions automakers’ fleets can emit. The rules put forward by the Biden administration are so stringent that they will require a significant share of the auto market to become electric — but they don’t ban gas cars entirely. The Clean Air Act prevents states from setting different rules from the federal government — though as California has historically dealt with unique smog problems, the law provides an exemption allowing it to seek a waiver to set its own rules that go further than the federal ones.  The Biden administration recently granted that waiver, allowing California’s new standards that ban the sales of gas cars by 2035 to take effect. Eleven other states and Washington, D.C. — which combined with California make up more than 30 percent of the nation’s car market — have adopted California’s rule, meaning they, too, are poised for a shift away from gas cars.  In theory, this makes California’s rule a major shift in the American auto market — and a giant step forward in the nation’s fight against the climate crisis.  But a tangled web of law, politics and market considerations make the rule’s actual expected outcome less clear. The EPA’s approval of California’s gas car ban is sure to come with lawsuits. Republican-led states, oil, gasoline and ethanol producers and the auto industry are among the parties that could sue to try to overturn the rules. At the same time, the Trump administration will also likely to revoke the waiver through the regulatory process — though this action could also spur lawsuits from supporters of the California rule.  The EPA’s own standards, which if unchanged could make just 29 percent of the cars sold nationwide in 2032 gas-powered, will face similar legal uncertainty. The national rule already faces a lawsuit and Trump’s threats to overturn it.  However, any future Trump rule could also face legal hurdles from green groups that would argue it’s not strict enough.  As the legal process plays out, it’s not clear for automakers what their national- or state-level electric vehicle sales requirements will be. “Navigating these challenges is especially acute for heavily regulated automakers and suppliers because of our multi-year design and manufacturing cycles and the significant capital expenditures necessary to bring any new vehicle to market,” John Bozzella, president of the lobbying group Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in a recent memo to Trump. He also called the current California and federal rules “out-of-step” with market realities.  California could try to implement a side deal with carmakers amid the potential policy and legal battles. After the last Trump administration revoked an Obama-era EPA authorization for California to set car standards, the state and several automakers inked a deal to increase the fuel efficiency of their car fleets.  “If companies are looking for certainty, their best effort will be to have an agreement with California,” said Margo Oge, who directed the EPA’s Transportation and Air Quality office for nearly two decades.  Oge said that if she were an auto company she "would want to know, at least for the biggest market in the U.S., that I can provide cars.” A spokesperson for the California Air Resources Board did not directly answer The Hill’s question about whether the state would pursue a similar deal this time. Instead, the spokesperson directed The Hill to the agency’s press release on the EPA waiver in which California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said, “Clean cars are here to stay … California can rise to the challenge of protecting our people by cleaning our air and cutting pollution.” If the carmakers do strike any such accord, it’s not clear what share of new cars sold would be electric — and on what timeline — under the agreement.   Another wildcard is that Republicans may try for a shortcut: the Congressional Review Act (CRA). This law allows simple majorities of the House and Senate to overturn a recent regulatory rule with the president’s approval. The Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan congressional watchdog, has said that the EPA waiver is not subject to be overturned under the CRA.  But Republicans could still try to use the tool anyway, said Carlson, who was the acting administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration under President Biden.  She added that this would almost certainly spur “a follow-up lawsuit, ... arguing that the Congressional Review Act does not, in fact, apply to waivers.” Asked whether the GOP would pursue a CRA, a spokesperson for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) did not directly answer, instead saying that the incoming chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee would look for any way possible to reverse the Biden administration’s action. 

Amazon rainforest faced ‘ominous’ drought, fires, deforestation in 2024, but also saw positive signs

A warming climate fed drought that in turn fed the worst year for fires since 2005.

2024 was a brutal year for the Amazon rainforest, with rampant wildfires and extreme drought ravaging large parts of a biome that’s a critical counterweight to climate change.A warming climate fed drought that in turn fed the worst year for fires since 2005. And those fires contributed to deforestation, with authorities suspecting some fires were set to more easily clear land to run cattle.The Amazon is twice the size of India and sprawls across eight countries and one territory, storing vast amounts of carbon dioxide that would otherwise warm the planet. It has about 20% of the world’s fresh water and astounding biodiversity, including 16,000 known tree species. But governments have historically viewed it as an area to be exploited, with little regard for sustainability or the rights of its Indigenous peoples, and experts say exploitation by individuals and organized crime is rising at alarming rates.“The fires and drought experienced in 2024 across the Amazon rainforest could be ominous indicators that we are reaching the long-feared ecological tipping point,” said Andrew Miller, advocacy director at Amazon Watch, an organization that works to protect the rainforest. “Humanity’s window of opportunity to reverse this trend is shrinking, but still open.”There were some bright spots. The level of Amazonian forest loss fell in both Brazil and Colombia. And nations gathered for the annual United Nations conference on biodiversity agreed to give Indigenous peoples more say in nature conservation decisions.“If the Amazon rainforest is to avoid the tipping point, Indigenous people will have been a determinant factor,” Miller said.Forest loss in Brazil’s Amazon — home to the largest swath of this rainforest — dropped 30.6% compared to the previous year, the lowest level of destruction in nine years. The improvement under leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva contrasted with deforestation that hit a 15-year high under Lula’s predecessor, far-right leader Jair Bolsonaro, who prioritized agribusiness expansion over forest protection and weakened environmental agencies.In July, Colombia reported historic lows in deforestation in 2023, driven by a drop in environmental destruction. The country’s environment minister Susana Muhamad warned that 2024’s figures may not be as promising as a significant rise in deforestation had already been recorded by July due to dry weather caused by El Nino, a weather phenomenon that warms the central Pacific. Illegal economies continue to drive deforestation in the Andean nation.“It’s impossible to overlook the threat posed by organized crime and the economies they control to Amazon conservation,” said Bram Ebus, a consultant for Crisis Group in Latin America. “Illegal gold mining is expanding rapidly, driven by soaring global prices, and the revenues of illicit economies often surpass state budgets allocated to combat them.”In Brazil, large swaths of the rainforest were draped in smoke in August from fires raging across the Amazon, Cerrado savannah, Pantanal wetland and the state of Sao Paulo. Fires are traditionally used for deforestation and for managing pastures, and those man-made blazes were largely responsible for igniting the wildfires.For a second year, the Amazon River fell to desperate lows, leading some countries to declare a state of emergency and distribute food and water to struggling residents. The situation was most critical in Brazil, where one of the Amazon River’s main tributaries dropped to its lowest level ever recorded.Cesar Ipenza, an environmental lawyer who lives in the heart of the Peruvian Amazon, said he believes people are becoming increasingly aware of the Amazon’s fundamental role “for the survival of society as a whole.” But, like Miller, he worries about a “point of no return of Amazon destruction.”It was the worst year for Amazon fires since 2005, according to nonprofit Rainforest Foundation US. Between January and October, an area larger than the state of Iowa — 37.42 million acres, or about 15.1 million hectares of Brazil’s Amazon — burned. Bolivia had a record number of fires in the first ten months of the year.“Forest fires have become a constant, especially in the summer months and require particular attention from the authorities who don’t how to deal with or respond to them,” Ipenza said.Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, and Guyana also saw a surge in fires this year.The United Nations conference on biodiversity — this year known as COP16 — was hosted by Colombia. The meetings put the Amazon in the spotlight and a historic agreement was made to give Indigenous groups more of a voice on nature conservation decisions, a development that builds on a growing movement to recognize Indigenous people’s role in protecting land and combating climate change.Both Ebus and Miller saw promise in the appointment of Martin von Hildebrand as the new secretary general for the Amazon Treaty Cooperation Organization, announced during COP16.“As an expert on Amazon communities, he will need to align governments for joint conservation efforts. If the political will is there, international backers will step forward to finance new strategies to protect the world’s largest tropical rainforest,” Ebus said.Ebus said Amazon countries need to cooperate more, whether in law enforcement, deploying joint emergency teams to combat forest fires, or providing health care in remote Amazon borderlands. But they need help from the wider world, he said.“The well-being of the Amazon is a shared global responsibility, as consumer demand worldwide fuels the trade in commodities that finance violence and environmental destruction,” he said.Next year marks a critical moment for the Amazon, as Belém do Pará in northern Brazil hosts the first United Nations COP in the region that will focus on climate.“Leaders from Amazon countries have a chance to showcase strategies and demand tangible support,” Ebus said.-- The Associated Press

Humanity is failing to meet its climate change goals. Here's what experts say we can still do

There's still time to act to limit the worst effects of climate change, but we need political willpower

Last month the Copernicus Climate Change Service, an organization run by the European Union to monitor global heating, revealed that Earth was on track to surpass the 1.5º C threshold. This manifested throughout 2024 in so-called “weird weather,” from unusually extreme hurricanes and floods to intense heat waves, parching droughts and unprecedented wildfires. It’s little wonder this year was the hottest in recorded history, breaking the record shattered in 2023.  A recent study even found that 2024 experienced 41 days of extra dangerous heat because of human-caused climate change. To make matters worse, recent data suggests that climate change is accelerating even faster than scientists predicted, meaning we’re rapidly entering uncharted territory. International conferences to address environmental issues like climate change (such as COP29) consistently ended in disappointment. Why are continuing to go backward on this issue? It’s certainly not from a lack of awareness or passion for the environment. Many people understand the stakes: climate change threatens to kill billions of humans and wipe out millions of species, pushing the definition of “habitability” to the brink. Top climate scientists say there’s still reason to hope and time to act, explaining why humanity has failed to meet its climate goals — and what we can do from here. “The obstacle isn’t technology,” University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Dr. Michael E. Mann told Salon. “We have the technological knowhow and infrastructure to decarbonize our economy on the needed timescale. What we’re currently lacking — globally, and certainly now in the U.S. under the control of Trump and Republicans — is the political will.” "What we’re currently lacking — globally, and certainly now in the U.S. under the control of Trump and Republicans — is the political will." Mann said humanity needs to rapidly decarbonize our economy. The overwhelming scientific evidence demonstrates humanity’s overuse of fossil fuels is the primary cause of climate change, as doing so releases greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. “We need governmental incentives that will massively incentivize renewable energy and phase out fossil fuel energy as soon as possible,” Mann said. “It won’t happen, however, if young people in particular don’t turn out to vote for climate-forward policymakers.” He added that many did not turn out in sufficiently large numbers during the 2024 election, “and too many fell victims to dishonest tactics of the Republicans and even voted for them out of ignorance of their true agenda. As a result, we elected the most pro-fossil fuel, climate-adverse government in modern history.” Going forward, Mann hopes people who prioritize climate change turn out to vote in larger numbers. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished scholar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, explicitly argued for three specific policy measures: “Cut emissions and use of fossil fuels; promote renewables; prepare for the consequences,” Trenberth said. He also noted that growing trees, carbon capture and storage and direct air capture of carbon dioxide emissions tend not to work. Want more health and science stories in your inbox? Subscribe to Salon's weekly newsletter Lab Notes. In general, it appears like humanity has failed to make limiting greenhouse gas emissions a priority, according to Tom Knutson, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, said that it appears humanity as a species has not “decided that strongly limiting future emissions of greenhouse gases is a top priority goal that should be pursued and treated as a critical ‘pass or fail goal.’” Knutson, who has contributed to the scientific efforts behind reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or the U.S. Fifth National Climate Assessment, views his job as providing relevant scientific information rather than offering policy prescriptions. Regardless of the specific measures that people choose to democratically decarbonize our society, it will be essential that they establish realistic goals and reliably follow through in implementing them. “Broadly speaking, humanity can decide, based on the above scenario information (with uncertainties) provided by IPCC and other scientific sources, what future emission pathway to set as a goal,” Knutson said. “Then society and policymakers can enact policies in an effort to reach the emission goal that is set. If they decide collectively that scenario X is the goal, and they fail to enact or implement the policies to achieve scenario X, or the policies are not followed as desired by the policymakers, then that would constitute a failure in my view.” It appears humanity as a species has not "decided that strongly limiting future emissions of greenhouse gases is a top priority goal." As humanity swims against the tide of rising temperatures, they will also need to solve lingering mysteries regarding these scientific facts. At the time of this writing, Knutson and his colleagues are researching issues such as why current climate models are not able to reproduce the observed pattern of sea surface temperature trends (1980 to 2022) in the tropical Pacific and southern Pacific Ocean. Other scientists are examining why climate change has been accelerating even faster than previous models anticipated. Because climate science includes many variables that humans do not know, experts cannot precisely anticipate or explain every phenomenon that ensues as people continue global heating through greenhouse gas emissions. Yet Knutson does have his own hypothesis about why climate change seems to be getting worse at an ever more rapid rate. “I would speculate that natural variability may be creating temporary trends (either ‘hiatus’ periods of little warming or temporary ‘spurts’ of accelerated warming) lasting up to a few decades,” Knutson said. “Maybe that is part of the explanation for the recent changes.” Citing his 2016 paper for Nature Communications on possible future trajectories for global mean temperature, Knutson said that this “suggests to perhaps just be patient for now to see if the recent acceleration we have seen is just a temporary effect of internal variability or temporary forcing change, or if it really does represent an accelerated long-term warming rate, relative to the trend we've been on since about 1970.” He added that these are his personal views and do not necessarily represent those of NOAA or the U.S. government. Mann emphasized that the most recent peer-reviewed scientific research does not find any acceleration of warming itself. “Some impacts of climate change are proceeding faster than expected,” Mann said. “Examples are ice sheet melt and sea level rise, and the rise in extreme weather events. The longer-term warming itself is steady and is proceeding as predicted by the models.” Perhaps the bottom line in all of this is that human beings must stop relying on fossil fuels. Dr. Friederike Otto, the lead of World Weather Attribution and an Imperial College climate scientist, put it bluntly when announcing the extra 41-days of extreme heat that occurred in 2024. "Climate change did play a role, and often a major role in most of the events we studied, making heat, droughts, tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall more likely and more intense across the world, destroying lives and livelihoods of millions and often uncounted numbers of people," Otto said during a media briefing. "As long as the world keeps burning fossil fuels, this will only get worse." Read more about this topic

Suggested Viewing

Join us to forge
a sustainable future

Our team is always growing.
Become a partner, volunteer, sponsor, or intern today.
Let us know how you would like to get involved!

CONTACT US

sign up for our mailing list to stay informed on the latest films and environmental headlines.

Subscribers receive a free day pass for streaming Cinema Verde.
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.